Posts

Beef Expansion Is Underway

Beef Expansion Is Underway
Chris Hurt, Extension Ag Economist - Purdue University

The nation’s cattle producers are expanding the herd and they’re doing it at a somewhat faster rate than had been anticipated.

USDA, in the semi-annual update of cattle numbers, calculates the total number of cattle and calves has increased by a bit more than one percent. It is the first increase in the cattle inventory since 2007. The industry suffered high feed prices and poor pasture conditions in the Southern Plains over the intervening years. 2014 provided a series of reasons to change course says Purdue University Extension Ag Economist Chris Hurt.

Quote Summary - There were multiple incentives to expand in 2014. These were led by record high cattle prices, with finished cattle averaging near $155 per live hundredweight and Oklahoma 500–550 pound steer calves averaging $250 per hundred. The other part of the incentive was more abundant feed due to a retreating drought in the Central and Southern Plains that restored range conditions and to favorable feed crop production in 2013 and 2014 which lowered corn and protein feed costs.

The most significant expansion is underway in the beef herd where beef cow numbers are up two percent from year-ago levels. The number of beef heifers being held back to enter the breeding herd is up four percent. Significantly, the number of those retained heifers that will calve this year is up seven percent. This means 61 percent of the beef heifers that have been retained to enter the breeding herd were already bred at the start of this year. The 2014 beef cow herd expansion, thinks Hurt, is likely the beginning of a multi-year increase.

Quote Summary - It is common for the beef herd to be in expansion for four to six years. With 2014 registering as the first year of expansion, expansion could continue through most of this decade. If so, peak beef production on this cycle would not be expected until early in the next decade.

Beef supplies, however for this year, will not change much. This might lead one to anticipate prices to be near the $155 finished cattle price of 2014. However, 2014 was an exceptional year, and meat prices in general this year may be lower explains Chris Hurt. Currently, futures markets are heavily discounting cash cattle prices, suggesting 2015 average finished cattle prices in the higher $140’s. However, he expects finished cattle prices to average $150 to $157 in 2015, with prices in early spring in upper $150s and the lower $160’s and then to fall to near $150 in summer and then to end the year in the mid-$150s.

Using the APAS Sample Farm

Using the APAS Sample Farm
Jonathan Coppess, Ag Policy Specialist - University of Illinois

Farmers and landowners wanting to learn more about the new farm programs and the sign up process can visit the Farm Bill Toolbox online. It was developed by the ag economists at the University of Illinois and Ohio State. Just search Google for Farm Bill Toolbox and you’ll find a seven step decision making process. There is also a link from the Farm Bill Toolbox to USDA’s APAS (ay-pass) website.

APAS stands for Agricultural Policy Analysis System. Jonathan Coppess from the University of Illinois says the two systems are related to each other.

Quote Summary - The way we look at it is that the APAS site gives you the chance to calculate expected payments and the Farm Bill Toolbox is the education outreach and analysis. So, you may use the two in an interrelated way. In fact we often make presentations using both, jumping back and forth from the APAS Tools to the Decision Steps.

The seven Decision Steps in the Farm Bill Toolbox guide farmers and landowners through the sign up process. The APAS Tool allows them to put their own farm numbers into the programs to see how different scenarios would work over the project five year life of the new farm safety net. Those wanting a quick view can simply use a sample farm from their own county - no matter where they live in the nation.

Quote Summary - The sample farmers are very usually friendly way to get an idea what program payments might be expected in your county. You simply choose your state and county, and a projected price series - one from USDA, one from the Congressional Budget Office, or the or the FAPRI numbers - and APAS simulates a farm sized at about $500,000 in gross revenue. The models use historical values from the county and estimates payments for a farm of that size.

The APAS sample farm is a quick way to benchmark, says Coppess, the new farm programs and how they might perform in a given county under varying price scenarios and program choices. APAS estimates farm payments based on crop, price, and program choice.

Those wanting to use the APAS Tools and the Farm Bill Toolbox can find each online.

Signing Up for the Farm Programs

The time to sign up for the farm programs has arrived. Decisions will need to be made in February and January. Read on for a quick lesson in the process, and then please visit the Farm Bill Toolbox website created by the ag economists at the University of Illinois. Landowners and farmers should find the seven step decision process in the toolbox very valuable as an aid to making the new farm program choices.

The deadline for making two of the three farm program choices is the end of February. University of Illinois Ag Economists Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, & Nick Paulson along with The Ohio State’s Carl Zulauf penned an article about the acreage allocation and yield update decisions. It follows;

Base Acre and Yield Updating Decisions: Push to the Finish
The deadline for completing base acre and yield updating decisions is February 27th (see steps 2 and 3 of “7 Steps” on Farm Bill Toolbox). Choosing between alternatives for each of these decisions is relatively straight forward:

1) For yield updating, select the highest yield for each program crop.

2) For base acre reallocation, choose the allocation that maximizes acres in program crops with the highest payments, given that the desire is to maximize program payments.

While the decisions usually are straightforward, collecting the information and completing the process will take some time. For this reason, beginning the process now seems prudent.

Landowners Officially Make the Decisions
Decisions will be made for each Farm Service Agency (FSA) farm. For each farm, there will be a landowner who owns the farm. Under rental arrangement, there also will be a producer who farms the land.

Landowners are responsible for making the base acre reallocation and yield updating decisions. While the landowner officially makes the decisions, in many rental situations producers have the proper power of attorneys to complete paperwork for these decisions. FSA has a record of whether proper power of attorneys exists for each farm. If an appropriate power of attorney does not exist and the landowner wishes the producer to complete the process, a power of attorney will need to be signed for farmers or farm managers to complete the decisions. If a power of attorney does not exist, the landowner will need to complete the process for base acre and yield updating decisions.

Collect Yield Data
If program yields are to be updated, yields are required for each year the crop was planted from 2008 through 2012. Documentation is not required at signup. However, documentation will be required if the FSA farm is audited during the life of the Farm Bill. The method of documentation will need to be indicated at signup. In many cases, crop insurance records will be used to provide documentation. These records are the actual yearly yields used to calculate Actual Production History (APH) yields. An explanation of using crop insurance records for documentation is available here (farmdocdaily December 23, 2014).

It will not be uncommon that documentation for a yield will not exist for a year. For example, a producer may have only farmed the land in 2010 through 2012 and cannot obtain documentation for 2008 and 2009.

If a yield is provided without documentation under an audit, farm program payments may have to be repaid and a fine could result. When yield documentation does not exist, a plug yield will need to be used. The plug yield equals 75% of the county average. When documentation cannot be provided, the plug yield should be used for 2008 and 2009

Plug yields for each county and crop are publicly available. FSA has this information. They can be obtained from the Payment Yield Update tool on the APAS website. The plug yields also are contained in the Base Acre and Yield Updating tool, a Microsoft FAST spreadsheet available for download at the FAST website.

Yields can be reported to FSA using CCC–859. This form is available here.

Make an Appointment with FSA
An appointment should be made immediately with FSA. If possible, yields for updating should be completed before this meeting. Bringing completed CCC–859 forms will facility the signup process.

Yield Updating Decision
Two alternatives for the program yield will exist for each program crop (see farmdocdaily April 3, 2014 for more detail):

  • The current program yield. These yields were reported for each FSA farm in a letter received from FSA in August 2014.
  • The updated yield equal to 90% of the average of yields from 2008 through 2012. If a year’s actual yield is below the plug yield, the plug yield will be used instead of the actual yield. If an actual yield does not exist for a year in which the crop was planted, the plug yield will be used in the update yield calculation.

Choose the highest yield. The decision can differ by crop for an FSA farm.

Base Acre Reallocation Decision
There are total base acres on each FSA farm. Landowner will be given two alternatives for dividing those total base acres into acres for each program crop (see farmdocdaily March 6, 2014 for more detail):

  • Current allocation of base acres on the farm. These acres were sent to landowners and producers in a letter received in August 2014.
  • Reallocated base acres. Total base acres are reallocated based on plantings from 2009 through 2012. Actual plantings were described in a letter received in August 2014. Total base acres under reallocation will equal base acres if current base acres are retained.

This decision is important as Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage at the county level (ARC-CO) will make payments in 2014 through 2018 on base acres. Planted acres in those years will not influence payments.

Many individuals will wish to make the allocation that maximizes commodity program payments, suggesting that the allocation be selected that places most acres in the crops with the highest expected payments. Estimating expected payments by crop requires forecast of prices and yields in 2014 through 2018. Obviously, forecasts can be wrong and crop rankings can vary from forecast rankings. With the knowledge of potential differences, estimated expected payments per program crop by county are available in the sample farms section of APAS. These same estimates also are available in the Base Acre and Yield Updating tool (available at the FAST website).

Users can see expected payment per program crop under different price forecasts for individual counties. In most counties, however, the following ranking exists:

  • Corn will have higher expected payment
  • Wheat will have lower expected payments than corn
  • Soybean will have lower expected payments than corn and wheat.

Corn and soybeans are only program crop: Given the above program crop ranking, choosing the acre alternative with the most corn acres likely will maximize program payments.

As an example take a farm whose current allocation is 60 acres of corn and 40 acres of soybeans. The reallocation alternative based on 2009 through 2012 plantings is 75 acres of corn and 25 acres of soybeans. Note that both alternatives total 100 total base acres. The above ranking suggests that the reallocated alternative (75 acres of corn and 25 acres of soybeans) will have the highest expected payments.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat are the program crops: When these three program crops exist, the reallocation with the lowest acres in soybeans while maximizing corn acres usually will result in the highest expected payments. Use of the Base Acre and Yield Updating Tool is advisable in these cases.

Summary
In many cases, making choices for base acre reallocation and yield updating will be relatively straightforward. Collecting yields, getting the proper power of attorneys, and signing proper election forms will take time. Beginning the process now is important. The process needs to be completed by February 27, 2015.

2015 ADAO Schedule

All-Day Ag Outlook Meeting Schedule
March 10, 2014 - Beef House
16501 Indiana 63
Covington, Indiana 47932

Registration
8:45am eastern / 7:45am central

Opening Remarks
9:25am eastern / 8:25am central

Cash Grain Panel
9:30am eastern / 8:30am central
Greg Johnson, The Andersons - Champaign, Illinois
Aaron Curtis, MIDCO - Bloomington, Illinois
Matt Bennett, Channel Seeds - Windsor, Illinois
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities - Lafayette, Indiana

Land Values 2015
10:15am eastern / 9:15am central
Murray Wise, CEO Murray Wise Associates - Champaign, Illinois

Break (20 min)

Livestock 2015
11:05am eastern / 10:05am central
Chris Hurt, Purdue University - West Lafayette, Indiana

Futures 2015
11:35am eastern / 10:35am central
Sue Martin, Ag and Investment Services - Webster City, Iowa

Lunch and Trade Show
12:20pm eastern / 11:20am central

Soybean Commodity Panel
1:30pm eastern / 12:30pm central
Curt Kimmel, Bates Commodities - Normal, Illinois
Wayne Nelson, L&M Commodities - New Market, Indiana
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting - Atchison, Kansas
Bill Mayer, Strategic Farm Marketing - Champaign, Illinois

Corn Panel
2:15pm eastern / 1:15pm central
Dan Zwicker, CGB Enterprises - Mandeville, Louisiana
Pete Manhart, Bates Commodities - Normal, Illinois
Jacquie Voeks, Stewart Peterson Group - Champaign, Illinois
Bill Gentry, Risk Management Commodities - Lafayette, Indiana

Reviewing the Pace of Corn & Soybean Exports

Following the January 12 USDA Crop Production and Grain Stocks reports it has becoming increasingly clear that the story in the corn and soybean markets for the foreseeable future will be the ongoing pace of consumption.



Consumption of corn produced in the United States can be tallied as corn for used for ethanol, fed to livestock, or exported. The soybean consumption numbers are derived from an item called the crush… that’s when a soybean facility crushes the bean to extract the oil and meal from it. There is also the feed and residual number, and again exports. University of Illinois Ag Economist John Newton has explored the export numbers.

He says, holding all else constant, a lower rate of corn and soybean exports relative to current USDA projections would increase carryover stocks, and could produce downward pressure on prices. USDA, as of the January reports, expects corn exports will be 1.75 billion or 1750 million bushels for the current marketing year. Newton also says right now the actual numbers suggest corn exports will need to pick up to make it to seventeen-fifty.
With nearly 40 percent of the marketing year in the books, corn exports need to accelerate in order to reach the 1,750 million bushel WASDE projection. Based on the implied GATS estimate of 602 million bushels, 1,148 million bushels need to be exported during the remainder of the marketing year to reach the WASDE projection. On a weekly basis this total represents approximately 37 million bushels per week, and would require an increase of 57 percent over the current 10-week average export volume.
Again, in order to meet the USDA projected yearly exports total of 1.750 billion bushels the pace of corn exports needs to average 37 million bushels per week from mid-January forward. Using a similar set of calculations John Newton reports cumulative soybean exports for the 2014/15 marketing year total 1.312 billion bushels, up 18 percent from last year.
Based on the FGIS totals, then, to reach the 1,770 million bushel WASDE projection it’s implied that 458 million bushels of soybeans need to be exported during the remainder of the marketing year. On a weekly basis this total represents approximately 15 million bushels per week.
While corn exports are accelerating, the pace of soybean exports from U.S. ports is slowing down. Combining the outstanding sales with the remaining balance needed, Newton expects sales could come up 42 million bushels short of the WASDE projection. He thinks soybean exports will struggle to meet the lofty 1.77 billion bushel USDA estimate, but that it is entirely possible.

Issues Stemming from January USDA Report

The final 2014 crop production numbers delivered by USDA in the January reports leave three issue unresolved.

The three problems, as identified by University of Illinois Ag Economist Darrel Good, center on the number of corn and soybean acres planted, the surprisingly small amount of corn used in the first three months of the marketing year, and the surprisingly large number of soybeans consumed in that same timeframe.

The difference between the total number of planted acres USDA NASS has reported over time and those officially reported by farmers to FSA , USDA’s Farm Service Agency, has grown. The number of acres planted to wheat, corn, and soybeans as tallied by USDA NASS has steadily grown larger than the number of acres farmers are telling FSA they’ve sown. USDA has not offered an explanation. The difference in 2014 is nearly 9.3 million acres over the three crops says Darrel Good.
He says the changing relationship between NASS acreage estimates and acreage reported to FSA may make early FSA reports less useful in anticipating NASS final acreage estimates.
The second issue is related to how much corn was used in the months of September, October, and November. Those are the first three months of the marketing year. USDA totals 4.25 billion bushels of disappearance of which feed and residual use accounted for 2.198 billion. This number is a 114 million bushels lower than the usage in the same period last year after it was revised down. The problem says the U of I number cruncher is that over time the range of usage represented in the first quarter figure as compared to total usage for the year has gotten wider.
First quarter use is no longer a reliable forecaster of total marketing year consumption. It means a lot of uncertainty will persist in the marketplace about how much corn is being fed to livestock.
The numbers do get better as time passes during the marketing year. The expectation is the March 31 Grain Stocks report will be more accurate.

The third issue with the January USDA figures is also in the consumption numbers. The implied residual disappearance of soybeans in the first quarter set a record. This might mean the size of the 2014 soybean crop was over estimated.
While this is an issue it will not be resolved for several months with some insight coming from the March Grain Stocks report.
Time will eventually fix all three issues, but it is important to recognize them and the potential changes these may bring to the commodity markets.

The Ethanol to Gasoline Relationship

The plummeting price of gasoline has caused a dramatic change in the relationship between the price of corn and the price of gasoline. However, this means little for how much ethanol will be produced and consumed.

Farmers May Not Benefit from Bumper Crops



Corn and soybean farmers harvested a bumper crop in 2014 — a record 14.2 billion bushels of corn and a record 3.97 billion bushels of soybeans, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Here & Now’s Jeremy Hobson spoke with Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University, about what the record crop means for the farmers’ revenue, since they’re selling the crops at a lower price.

Here & Now airs during the noon hour on WILL AM580.

WILLAg All Day Ag Outlook March 10th








The March 10th meeting includes a continental breakfast and Beef House Lunch all for just $25 per ticket.

Riding the Feeder Cattle Roller Coaster

by Paul Peterson - University of Illinois

Futures prices were limit-down for 5 days in a row in mid-December 2014, the most limit-move days in a livestock contract since the BSE (mad cow) selloff in December 2003. Daily price limits in feeder cattle futures were increased from 3 cents per pound ($3/cwt) to 4½ cents per pound ($4.50/cwt), with provisions for additional expansions if needed; complete details are presented here.

For the 22 trading days in December 2014, the January 2015 feeder cattle futures contract had 10 days with price moves up or down of 3 cents per pound or more. And on the first trading day of January 2015, prices closed limit-up at the new 4½ cent daily limit, starting out the New Year with a bang (Figure 1). In contrast, February 2015 live cattle futures have had just 2 limit days (both down) since December 1, and February 2015 hog futures have had none.

So why have feeder cattle prices been so volatile lately? It helps to think about feeder cattle prices as the "shock absorber" between fed cattle prices on one end, and corn prices on the other. When buying feeder cattle, feedlots look at the gross feeding margin, which is

United Nations Declares 2015 the Year of Soils



International Year of Soils

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has designated 2015 the International Year of Soils. The organization hopes to raise awareness of the need to protect productive soils around the planet. It has entrusted a Global Soil Partnership with this task. The partnership has five pillars of action.

The 5 pillars of action

The Global Soil Partnership will support the process leading to the adoption of sustainable development goals for soils.

It will contribute to environmental wellbeing through, for example, preventing soil erosion and degradation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions,

RFS2 Set to Ramp up Biodiesel Usage

U.S. EPA has stalled the release of the annual usage mandates for bio fuels in the United States. These are due out each November, but neither the 2014 or 2015 figures have been released. EPA says it will put forth new numbers next spring. In the meantime, it might be important to consider just how using the default numbers would play out for the production of ethanol and biodiesel.



The United States congress set renewable fuels mandates a few years ago. It also gave U.S. EPA the power to adjust those mandates. EPA hasn’t done so for the 2014 calendar year, or for 2015. We’ll dispose of the political baggage and simply focus on the results of using the default statutes written into the law.

Ethanol Production Profits Dim as Gasoline Prices Plummet

by Scott Irwin & Darrel Good

The magnitude of the decline in crude oil and gasoline prices has taken nearly everyone by surprise. NYMEX nearby crude oil futures this week touched $60 per barrel, almost $50 less than peak prices last summer. This is a major economic event with potentially far-reaching impacts for biofuels markets. We examined some of these impacts in two recent farmdoc daily articles (November 12, 2014; December 4, 2014). Our conclusion was that current high ethanol prices relative to gasoline prices, as illustrated in Figure 1, might slow the growth in domestic ethanol consumption, but would not likely result in consumption that is less than the 10 percent blend wall. In contrast, the high price ratio may represent a threat to

The Pace of Corn Consumption




Darrel Good, Ag Economist – University of Illinois

Now that the nation’s corn harvest is complete, traders have turned their full attention to the rate at which the crop is being used. Todd Gleason has more on the pace of corn consumption.

There are three primary uses for corn…

Crude Oil Crash - Start Pricing Needs

Each Tuesday during the Closing Market Report we talk with an energy analyst. This week Growmark's Harry Cooney turned his attention to OPEC, the dramatic drop in the price of a barrel of crude oil, and what to do about pricing 2015 fuel needs. You may listen to the conversation here.

WILLAg Farm Assets Outlook Panel Discussions

Old Iron Plowing Fever

Farm Assets Conference Tickets Available Now



FARM ASSETS CONFERENCE
10:15am - 5:00pm November 24, 2014

Marriott Hotel & Conference Center
201 Broadway St, Normal, IL 61761

This is a new signature event for WILLAg.

The WILLAg Farm Assets Conference sponsored in part by the Farm Credit System hopes to provide farmers and landowners decision​making tools for their business assets. The $25 registration fee includes the noon meal. Those attending can expect to hear pricing information on agricultural commodities from WILLAg’s regular ON AIR experts, learn how the new farm bill might impact crop insurance decisions going forward, to effectively analyze and choose between the new federal ARC and PLC programs, and explore the value of farm land.

Corn & Soybean Commodity Distribution










A G R I C U L T U R E
University  of  Illinois

Todd E. Gleason, Farm Broadcaster
1301 W Gregory Dr, Rm75  MC710
College of Agricultural, Consumer & Environmental Sciences
Urbana, Illinois  61801

tgleason@illinois.edu
work (217) 333-9697





POPULATION NOTES

* 0001 - 200 million people on the planet

* 1800 - 1 billion people on the planet
   - 300 man hours to produce 100 bushels wheat from

Ag Census Mapping Tool Makes Data Visual

Every five years the United States Department of Agriculture takes a census. USDA NASS collects all kinds of data about farm production in the U.S.A. The agency has developed a tool to map this data. It is a way to visualize agricultural production, income, wealth distribution, management type, and the demographics of farmers. These three maps show the primary growing regions for corn, soybean, and wheat. The darkest green areas represent acres where the cropland is at least 45 percent sown to the crop listed. The corn belt is easy to see, and not that much of a surprise. However, the primary soybean growing regions of the nation are bit more diverse than you might expect and seem to follow the Mississippi Valley watershed from New Orleans to St. Louis, along the Ohio River Valley and the mighty Missouri River.