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2019 Northern Illinois Crop and Prevent Plant Budgets in July

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by Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
link to farmdocDaily article

Overall, projections suggest low returns for corn, soybeans, and prevent plant acres in Northern Illinois, an area that has been hard hit with wet weather, delayed planting, and prevent planting. Corn and soybean returns are projected to be lower than any year going back to 2000, even after including significant Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments and estimates of crop insurance payments at an 85% coverage level. Corn prevent planting returns are higher than corn returns given current estimates of harvest-time prices, although both results in a loss on average cash rented land. Soybean returns are expected to be better than soybean prevent plant returns, which are very low. As with corn, both soybean scenarios result in a loss on average cash rented land.


Current projections of prices and yields result in negative returns for Northern Illinois, an area that has experienced a large amount of wet weather that ha…

June Acreage Report Heightens Uncertainty

by Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois Extension
link to farmdocDaily article and videoOn June 28, the USDA released the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. While the Grain Stocks report provided support for both corn and soybeans, the Acreage report indicated higher than expected corn acres and lower than expected soybean acres. The acreage numbers injected a substantial amount of uncertainty into both markets that appears set to stay in place throughout the summer.
The 2019 June USDA Acreage Report rocked the corn market. University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs explores those numbers in this interview with ILLINOIS Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason.A dramatic drop in principal crop acreage provided one of the many surprises in the Acreage report released on Friday. Driven by much lower soybean and wheat acreage, total principal crop acreage came in at 309.3 million acres, down 6.1 million acres from the March Prospective Planting report. Principal crop acreage esti…

Managing Prevented-Planting Fields | an interview with Emerson Nafziger

by Emerson Nafziger, Extension Agronomist - University of Illinois
link to The Bulletin postWith a lot of acres of corn and soybeans still unplanted as we move into the second half of June, prevented planting (PP) is unfortunately going to be a major part of the story of the 2019 cropping season in Illinois. Here we’ll look at goals and options for managing acres on which the intended crop—corn or soybean—does not get planted.
Emerson Nafziger, University of Illinois Extension Agronomist, on how to manage Prevented Planting acreage this summer.The main goals of managing PP acres will be: 1) providing a vegetative cover in order to keep the soil in place and to prevent “fallow syndrome”; 2) to prevent or manage weeds so they don’t reseed the field; and 3) to take up nitrogen, including that from any N-containing fertilizer (including DAP/MAP), and any N that will be released from soil organic matter during the growing season. We also need to find ways to keep costs down, given that the P…

Corn Acreage and Stocks | an interview with Todd Hubbs

by Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois
link to farmdocDaily postCorn futures prices rallied about $0.90 per bushel since the beginning of May. The rally reflects expectations that planted acreage will fall well short of March intentions and on yield concerns associated with wide-ranging late planting. Demand weakness continues to emerge in the export market, but supply issues look to overwhelm any decrease in demand. The release of USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports on June 28 looks to set the tone for summer corn prices.
The end of the month USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage reports are less than two weeks away. Todd Gleason talks with University of Illinois ag economist and commodity marketing specialist about the projected numbers and how farmers should set this self up for marketing this year’s corn and soybean crops.The reduction in corn planted acreage by three million acres and corn yield by 10 bushels per acre in the June WASDE appears to be a harbinger of things to come this ye…

Corn Yield Implications of Late Planting

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University of Illinois Extension Agronomist Emerson Nafziger discusses the impact of late corn planting and how farmers should set about nitrogen applications this spring. He was interviewed May 1, 2019 by Todd Gleason.The following summary is taken from a May 1, 2019 University of Illinois farmdocDaily article written by agricultural economists Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs.“The impact of late planting on projections of the U.S. average corn yield is an important question right now due to the very wet conditions so far this spring through much of the Corn Belt. We estimate that the relationship of late planting with corn yield trend deviations is highly non-linear, with a largely flat segment up to 10 percent above average late planting and then a steeply sloped segment for late planting that is 10 percent or more above average. This nicely matches the curvature of planting date effects on corn yield estimated in agronomic field trials (e.g., farmdoc daily, May 20, 2015; Nafziger, 2017)…

Crop Insurance Loss Ratios in 2018

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Gary Schnitkey from the University of Illinois discusses crop insurance loss ratios for 2018, the current outlook for payments in 2019, and the strategic economic models he’ll be developing for soybeans.

by Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
link to farmdocDaily article

Most 2018 payments on Federal crop insurance products have now been entered into the Risk Management Agency’s (RMA’s) record system and losses for 2018 can be stated accurately. Similar to 2016 and 2017, low losses again occurred in 2018. Losses were particularly low in Illinois and, more generally, the eastern Corn Belt.

Background on Loss Ratios

This article presents loss ratios, which equal payments on crop insurance policies divided by total premium paid on crop insurance policies. A loss ratio of 1.0 means that crop insurance payments are equal to total premium. Ratios above 1.0 indicate that payments exceed premium, which occurs with some regularity. On the other hand, loss ratios below 1.0 indicate that payme…

It Still Takes Two Weeks to Plant the American Corn Crop

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Most people take for granted that the farmers can plant their crops way faster today than ever before. While it is true today’s equipment can plant a single acre of corn much faster, it still takes about the same amount of time to plant the whole crop.



It’s an illusion and pretty simple math says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Scott Irwin, "This is a situation where your eyes can deceive you. So, you drive out in the countryside and you have a friend that is a farmer. They have a big planter and can plant their individual farm, in these particular cases, clearly much faster than they used to (be able to plant them). I don’t disagree with that individual anecdotal observation. The problem is that this doesn’t necessarily add up to the whole."



Sure, the equipment can get over a single acre way faster but each piece of equipment is going over way more acres than used to be the case. Consequently, it takes about the same time to plant the whole U.S. corn crop toda…