Pork's Boom & Bust Price Pattern

Markets can take your breath away and the hog market over the past year has left many breathless says one Purdue University ag economist.

A year-ago in March, the new PED virus was

Estimated 2014 ARC County Payments

Farmers throughout the nation are deciding which of the new farm programs to take. Another piece of that puzzle was put into place when USDA released the county wide corn and soybean yields late last month. These can be used to estimate some of the 2014 farm program payments.

County wide yields as calculated by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service along with the estimated season's average cash price - the marketing year average - can be used to forward figure 2014 ARC County payments. It is possible therefore to know a lot, if not everything, about the first potential crop year farm program payments before any farmer ever signs up for the safety net says University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitkey.

ARC County makes payments to farmers when revenue falls below a bench mark. It is calculated using county wide yields and a marketing year average price. Both are available and can be used to make estimates. The Marketing Year Average price won't be finalized until the fall. It is projected, however, each month in USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE).

The mid-point for corn is $3.65, but this could vary up or down. Using the county yields, it is possible to project fairly large ARC County corn payments for farms from New York and Ohio through Indiana, northern Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and into the Dakota's.

Some of these areas may even receive the maximum payment from ARC County.

Other areas may not get a 2014 ARC County payment for corn. These include central and southern Illinois, parts of Missouri, eastern Kansas and southern Indiana. Only a few counties around the nation will receive an ARC County soybean payment.

These are found in Iowa, Wisconsin, eastern Ohio, and New York. Does it change anything as it relates to the ARC County vs PLC farm program decision? Not likely, but the only way to really tell is to run the numbers. That can be done using the online Farm Bill Toolbox and USDA's APAS website.

Farm Bill Sign Up Extended

USDA has extended the deadline to update base acres and yields under the new farm bill until March 31st. The original deadline for landowners to make initial decisions related to the new farm safety net was Friday February 27, 2015.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack made the announcement saying it is an important decision for producers, because the programs provide financial protection against unexpected changes in the marketplace.

The Secretary says USDA is working to ensure landowners and farmers have the time, the information, and opportunity to review their data, and to visit the Farm Service Agency to make solid informed farm bill decisions.

If no changes are made to yield history or base acres by March 31, 2015, the farm’s current yield and base will be used. A program choice of ARC or PLC coverage also must be made by that same date or there will be no 2014 payments for the farm and the farm will default to PLC coverage through the 2018 crop year.

2015 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum

Last week the United States Department of Agriculture presented its view of the commodity markets.

Thursday USDA Acting Chief Economist Robert Johansson made a presentation on the current agricultural landscape during the 2015 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Interestingly, he set the tone by showing how commodity prices have been trending downward for more than 60 years.

Search This Blog