Posts

Showing posts from 2016

Christmas Tree Selection & Care | an interview with Ron Wolford

extension.illinois.edu/trees

Christmas just isn’t Christmas without a real Christmas tree. The following are a few hints to help you select that perfect tree whether you purchase it from a neighborhood lot or a Christmas tree farm.

  • Decide on where you will place the tree. Will it be seen from all sides or will some of it be up against a wall? Be sure to choose a spot away from heat sources, such as TVs, fireplaces, radiators and air ducts. Place the tree clear of doors.
  • Measure the height and width of the space you have available in the room where the tree will be placed. There is nothing worse than bringing a tree indoors only to find it’s too tall. Take a tape measure with you to measure your chosen tree and bring a cord to tie your tree to the car.
  • Remember that trees sold on retail lots in urban areas may have come from out of state and may have been exposed to drying winds in transit. They may have been cut weeks earlier.Buy trees early before the best trees have been sold and where trees are shaded.Ask the retailer whether his trees are delivered once at the beginning of the season or are they delivered at different times during the selling season.
  • Choose a fresh tree. A fresh tree will have a healthy green appearance with few browning needles. Needles should be flexible and not fall off if you run a branch through your hand. Raise the tree a few inches off the ground and drop it on the butt end. Very few green needles should drop off the tree.. It is normal for a few inner brown needles to drop off.
  • Remember to choose a tree that fits where it is to be displayed. For example if the tree is displayed in front of a large window, then all four sides should look as good as possible. If the tree is displayed against a wall, then a tree with three good sides would be okay. A tree with two good sides would work well in a corner. The more perfect a tree, the more expensive it is.
  • Make sure the handle or base of the tree is straight and 6–8 inches long so it will fit easily into the stand.
  • Do a little research on different Christmas tree types. Some Christmas tree varieties will hold needles longer than others.

How to Connect your Site to the Prospective Business | webinar



University of Illinois Extension’s Community and Economic Development team will host a free webinar, Site Selection: How to Connect your Site to the Prospective Business, on Thursday, December 8, 2016 from Noon to 1PM, Central Time.



The webinar, a final in Local Government Education’s fall series on economic development in Illinois, will feature Cheryl Welge, who will be presenting a more detailed discussion of the site selection process. In the previous site selection webinar, we covered the state and technical aspects of Location One and site selection in Illinois. During this upcoming webinar, Cheryl will share her expertise on capacity requirements for site selection from the site selector perspective.

As a senior business development executive in Ameren Corporation’s Economic Development Department, Cheryl serves as the business development contact for a twenty-two county region in western, central and southwestern Illinois. In this role, she implements Ameren’s community and business development programs within Ameren-served communities. Cheryl is a first-line representative responsible for developing, coordinating and implementing Ameren’s proactive business development services to create and sustain revenue growth, support public strategy implementation and help foster positive community stewardship on behalf of Ameren subsidiaries.

Cheryl began her utility career with one of Ameren’s legacy companies – Central Illinois Public Service Company – in 1989. After serving in various support positions within both the Industrial Services and the Customer Expansion & Retention Departments, Cheryl assumed the role of marketing coordinator of the CIPS Marketing Programs Department in 1996 and joined the Ameren Economic Development Department in 1998. In 2013 she assumed her current position as senior business development executive.

Cheryl is a graduate of both Lincoln Land Community College and Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, having earned a Bachelor of Science, Business Administration, with a major in Marketing. In addition, she graduated from the University of Oklahoma’s Economic Development Institute in April 1999 and became a Business Retention & Expansion International (BREI) certified BR&E Consultant in 2003. Cheryl is a Past Chairman of the Illinois Economic Development Association (formerly known as the Illinois Development Council) and a past recipient of the Distinguished Economic Developer Award.

There is no cost to attend the webinar; however, pre-registration is required. Register online or contact Ken Larimore at larimore@illinois.edu for more information.

2016 Gross Farm Revenue & Income

It looks like this year is going to be better than last year for farmers in central Illinois. Todd Gleason explores how gross income has changed for row croppers in the middle of the prairie state.



The gross revenue for corn is $292 per acre. It is tallied from three income sources. The crop is worth $262. There was a $20 farm safety net payment from the ARC-County program and a $10 crop insurance indemnity. The total, again $292, is lower than last year says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey, “Even though we are putting in a very high yield, we are using 231 bushels to the acre for the corn average - the same as in 2014, revenues will be down for corn in 2016 as compared to 2015”.



Schnitkey calculated the gross revenue figures for the farmdocdaily website.

The soybean figures add up in a similar fashion. The gross revenue is estimated to total $718 per acre. It’s a figure much higher than the 2015 gross says the agricultural economist, “We are including very high soybean yields for 2016. Record-breaking yields, in fact, of 73 bushels to the acre. The price is above $9.50, and this may actually turn out to be low as prices continue to climb. Overall, revenue on soybeans will be up from last year and much higher than total costs. So, our bright spot for the 2016 year will be revenue and income from soybeans”.



All in all, on the highly productive soils of central Illinois, 2016 will go down as a high-yield low-income year. Another year in which farmers just-get-by says Gary Schnitkey.
Quote Summary - Get-by year, but better than it could have been without the high yields. Most farmers will maintain equity, but may see some working capital declines. The declines will be more pronounced on farms working a higher percentage of cash rented land. It is better than 2015, but still not up to sustainable levels for the long-run. We need to see higher returns, particularly for corn prices in the future.
There are a series of graphics detailing 2016 central Illinois row crop farm gross income on the farmdocdaily website.

Illinois Farm Economic Summits

The big story in Illinois agriculture in 2016 continued to be the “margin squeeze” faced by crop producers. This squeeze was brought on by low corn, soybean, and wheat prices and costs of production that are only slowly adjusting to the new price realities. At present prices, further cost of production reductions will be required. Producers and landowners face a series of difficult management challenges as they grapple with how to adjust to the changed environment. Should cash rents be lowered? And if so, by how much? How much relief will be seen through lower fertilizer and seed prices? What are the prospects for grain prices to recover from current depressed levels?

University of Illinois Extension and members of the farmdoc team from the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics will be holding a series of five Farm Economics Summit meetings to help producers navigate these difficult times.

LEARN MORE & REGISTER TODAY

Speakers from the farmdoc team at the University of Illinois will explore the farm profitability outlook and management challenges from several perspectives, including the 2017 outlook for prices, farm financial management in tough times, needed changes in farmland leases, updates on the farm program safety net, agricultural credit conditions, and long-term weather and yield trends. The format for the meeting will be fast-paced and allow plenty of time for questions from the audience.

EPA Renewable Fuels Standard Rallies Soybean Oil Prices

Source | Darrel Good, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

The price of soybeans rallied about 10 percent from mid-October to mid-November. It came,despite the record sized crop harvested in the United States.

Farmers have been in awe of the soybean market since mid-August. There have been a few reasons for it to rally; a short crop out of South America and a drought constrained supply of palm oil coming from Indonesia for instance. Still, this U.S. soybean crop is big, mighty big in fact. Yet, the price of soybeans has gone higher.

Darrel Good writes about it in this week’s Weekly Outlook. You may read it online at FarmDocDaily.

There are two unusual things about this price rally. Well, one really, but it is driven by the first. The rally has come because the world seems to be short of vegetable oils. Soybean oil is among those. Here’s the important part, soybean oil lead rallies generally do not last. Darrel Good thinks this one might and that it could change the dynamics of the soybean complex. The change is driven by the Renewable Fuels Standard. The RFS did the same thing for the corn market when it began to ramp up ethanol production in the United States more than a decade ago.

The soy complex is made up of three parts; the price of soybeans, the price of soybean meal, and the price of soybean oil. The last two are the products derived from the soybean when it is processed, crushed.

The EPA RFS announcement, made last week, initially resulted in a surge in soybean oil and soybean prices. Increasing soybean oil consumption for mandated advanced biofuels, in this case biodiesel production, this year and beyond may require the domestic soybean crush to be larger than previously thought concludes Darrel Good. He says this could lead to some long-term pricing questions.

Historically, the domestic crush has been driven by soybean meal demand. If it is driven instead by soybean oil demand, this could result in lower soybean meal prices. Soybean meal has a short shelf life. Its price would need to be low enough to for it to be used quickly.

The impact of higher soybean oil prices and lower soybean meal prices on the price of soybeans is difficult to anticipate. However, a “surplus” of soybean meal, says Good, might result in lower soybean meal prices relative to feed grain prices. It could cause the soybean meal to corn price ratio that has ranged from 2.55 to 3.2 in recent years to decline. The historical range is 2.0 to 2.5.

Could Soybean Stocks Grow to 580 Million

Depending upon how you do the numbers there could be an enormous supply of soybeans in the U.S. by the time the fall of 2018 rolls around.

The large soybean crop in the United States hasn’t, yet, pummeled prices in Chicago. However, farmers are a bit worried the hammer blow will be struck. For now, much of the focus is on the potential size of the 2017 South American crops and the implications for demand for U.S. grown soybeans. Increasingly, however focus will shift to 2017 production prospects here in the United States.

The over-riding question is whether surpluses and low prices will persist for another year. Although University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good says it is a bit early to speculate on supply and consumption prospects for the 2017–18 marketing year, he thinks some scenarios can be considered.

For soybeans, there is a general expectation that U.S. producers will increase acreage in the year ahead. An increase of about five million acres, to 88 million harvested acres, seems to be a common expectation right now. The extremely high soybean yields of the past three years raise some questions about a potential increase in the trend yield. However, if the 2017 U.S. average soybean yield is near our calculated linear trend value of 47.5 bushels and acreage is increased as expected, the 2017 crop would total 4.18 billion bushels, 181 million bushels less than the 2016 harvest. If soybean consumption during the 2017–18 marketing year remained at the elevated level of 4.108 billion bushels projected for the current year, stocks would grow by about 100 million bushels.

So, at the end of the 2017–18 marketing year there could be 580 million bushels of soybeans left in the supply category as ending stocks. The upshot writes Good in his Weekly Outlook is that with a trend yield of 47.5 bushels and a constant level of consumption, any increase of more than 2.85 million acres next spring would result in some further growth in year ending stocks.

Quote Summary - On the other hand, a five million acre increase in soybean area along with a constant level of consumption means that an average yield of less than 46.3 bushels would result in some increase in marketing year ending stocks.

There are obviously multiple potential acreage, yield, consumption, and ending stocks scenarios for the 2017–18 U.S. soybean marketing year. The most likely scenarios tend to favor a modest to large increase in marketing year ending stocks of soybeans. However, the soybean market is apparently not convinced that stocks will continue to grow next year, with the January 2018 futures price only $0.06 lower than the January 2017 price.

The soybean market, concludes Good, then appears to be reflecting some production risk. He thinks this perceived risk may stem from current drought conditions in the southeastern United States and/or uncertainty about potential impacts if a La Niña episode unfolds in South America.

US Corn Ethanol Market | an interview with Carl Zulauf




Ethanol was a factor in both the price run-up that began in 2006 and the price run-down that began in 2013. Tepid growth replaced explosive growth. The question for the future is, “What is ethanol’s organic growth rate (growth without government policy stimulus)?” Recent history suggests growth will continue in the corn ethanol market, but it likely will be notably lower than the growth in yields. Thus, upward pressure on corn prices is less likely.

Corn Ethanol in Historical Perspective
US Department of Agriculture data on US corn processed into US ethanol begin with the 1980 crop. It is reported monthly in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Corn processed into ethanol grew at an average annual rate of 6% between 1985 and 2000, exploded to a 24% annual growth rate between 2000 and 2010, then slowed to 1% per year after 2010 Ethanol Growth vs. Yield Growth. The explosive growth in the first decade of this Century largely coincides with the impact of government policies. These policies first led to the use of ethanol as an oxygenate additive in gasoline, then to the use of ethanol as a substitute for gasoline and by extension oil The latter was accomplished through mandates on market size enacted by Congress in 2005 and 2007.


Figure 1 | Corn for Ethanol

Return to Equity for Processing Corn into Ethanol
Since January 2005, Iowa State University has issued a monthly report on the costs and returns to processing corn into ethanol. The report is based on (1) a model plant created using best available information and (2) current prices for corn, ethanol, natural gas, and distillers dried grain. Among the measures calculated is a return on equity. Figure 2 reports the average of monthly returns to equity by crop year. Even though growth in the ethanol market slowed dramatically after 2010, average return on equity remained positive for the 2011–2015 crop years (13%). As expected, return on equity was higher for the 2005–2010 crop years (30%). For additional discussion of the return to processing corn into ethanol, see Irwin, 2016.



Figure 2 | Iowa State Ethanol Plant Model Returns

Ethanol Growth vs. Yield Growth
A measure of growth in demand (growth in corn processed into ethanol expressed as a percent of corn production) is compared with a measure of growth in supply (growth in US corn yield). To illustrate the calculation of these measures, 3.71 billion bushels of corn was processed into ethanol in the 2008 crop year, 0.66 billion bushels more than processed in the 2007 crop year. US production of corn in 2007 was 13.04 billion bushels. The growth in corn processed into ethanol was +5.1% of 2007 corn production (0.66/13.04). US yield of corn per planted acre was 151 bushels in 2008 vs. 149 bushels in 2007. Rate of growth was +1.3% [(151/149) - 1]. These two measures were calculated for each crop year.

Yield growth strongly exceeded the growth in corn used to produce ethanol relative to corn production before 2000 and after 2010 (see Figure 3). The two measures increased at about the same rate (2%) between 2000 and 2005. Between 2005 and 2010, growth in corn used to produce ethanol relative to production strongly exceeded growth in corn yields. Not only did corn processed into ethanol increase dramatically during the latter period, but the growth in corn yields was also abnormally low. Reinforcing these bullish price factors was China’s rapidly growing demand for soybeans (see Zulauf, 2016).



Figure 3 | Ethanol Growth v Yield Growth

Summary Observations
  • From the perspective of 2016, expansion of the US corn ethanol market was largely squeezed into the 10 years from 2000 to 2010 (83% of the expansion occurred in these years).
  • The squeeze was largely driven by US policy decisions.
  • At the same time that policy was strongly pushing demand, growth in corn yields suddenly slowed, with a likely explanation being a multiple year period of suboptimal growing conditions.
  • However, the increase in demand for corn ethanol spurred by policy would have exceeded the growth in yield even during the high yield growth period of 1980 to 2000.
  • The result was not just an increase in corn price but an explosive increase in corn price.
  • This price increase increasingly looks unsustainable as yield growth returns to a path closer to history and ethanol growth returns to a level more consistent with long term organic growth due to market incentives, not policy factors.
  • If the preceding point holds, agriculture will need to make painful adjustments as it enters a world that will likely look more like 1980–2000 than 2005–2010.
  • Nothing in the historical review suggests that the corn ethanol market would not have developed. The continuing positive return to equity since 2010 suggests the market is sustainable. In particular, ethanol appears to have carved out a role as a competitive source of octane for gasoline, which is translating into a growth in exports of ethanol. For additional discussion of this topic, see Irwin and Good, 2016. But, annual organic growth is slower and unlikely to exceed the growth in yields.
  • This 35 year story does however raise caution about using policy to expand markets.
  • In particular, the design of such policy needs to respect the underlying private market, including attributes such as sustainable non-publically subsidized growth; role of competing demand components, such as livestock in the case of ethanol; and the scope and magnitude for supply growth to be uncertain and how this uncertainty may interact with policy induced demand growth.
  • Interesting, important, but probably unanswerable questions are what would be the current state of the corn ethanol market and by extension corn prices if government policy had not intervened and more narrowly if the 2007 mandate had not been enacted. The answers to these questions may tell us more about the future of corn and other field crop prices than any other set of questions.

Watch the Feed Usage Number for Corn

Last week, when USDA raised the sized of the U.S. corn crop, there was a collective gasp in farm country. Prices are already very low, and an even bigger crop wasn’t expected. All attention now has turned to how this mammoth supply will be used in hopes consumption can chew through the mountain of corn.

U.S. farmers are harvesting their largest corn crop on record at some 15.2 billion bushels. It’s the western corn belt that really came through this year with big yields. The November USDA Crop Production report shows that even in the last month those yields got bigger. Up 3 bushel to the acre in Nebraska and South Dakota. 4 bushels higher in Minnesota. And a 17 bushel to the acre increase in North Dakota that came about once farmers (the only real source for yields in that state) took a look at the yield monitors in their combines.

The increased yield for the corn crop creates a scenario says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs where the ending stocks to use ratio is 16.4 percent under current consumption projections. That’s a level, he notes, that has not been seen since the 2005/06 marketing year. And while the corn for export and ethanol numbers seem sound, the feed and residual number has Hubbs concerned.

Quote Summary - They’ve had the feed and residual use projection at 5.65 billion bushels for the few reports. It’s a big number. It is 10 percent up over last year and, with the increased livestock numbers we’ve seen, it sounds reasonable. However, when you consider the mitagating factors surround feed usage; the unseasonably warm fall; a large corn crush for ethanol which increases the availability of distillers grains; DDG’s that may not be shipped overseas because of China’s recent import restrictions; and you see lots of alternative sources for feed rather than corn. Even though there are strong livestock inventory numbers, the mitigating factors want to make you give feed a good look as we move through the marketing year.

Think of it this way. There are a lot of corn acres and lot ethanol plants west of the Mississippi River - Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota are three of the top five corn producing states in the nation. There are also a lot of wheat acres, and a lot of cattle, and a lot of hogs, and more than a few poultry operations. Those birds and animals eat a lot of feed, but the ranchers and farmers make decisions based on economics. Clearly it has been cheaper to leave cattle on pasture this warmer than average fall, and it may be cheaper to feed wheat and DDG’s rather than corn. We won’t really know the impact until the Grain Stocks report is released January 12 says Todd Hubbs.

Quote Summary - The grain stocks report is the only way to back out how much corn for feed is being used. We know how much corn is being crushed for ethanol. There is a pretty good figure on how much of it is being exported. The Grain Stocks let us back figure a calculation for feed usage over the first quarter of the marketing year. So, on January 12th of 2017 the report will come out giving us the December 1 stocks report. This will give us an indication of just how strong feed us is.

So, while a deserved focus has been placed on corn exports, foreign production, and corn used for ethanol, a major portion of each corn crop is fed to livestock. Given the large projected increase for feed and residual usage this marketing year, monitoring those projections will be really important to price discovery.

Trump | Now what for U.S. Corn Exports

Tom Sleight, CEO of the United States Grains Council discusses the future of U.S. grain exports under a Donald Trump administration.
 

Crop Insurance Payments - an interview with Gary Schnitkey

Harvest prices used to determine crop insurance payments for corn and soybean policies in the Midwest are based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) futures settlement prices during the month of October. The 2016 harvest price for corn is $3.49 per bushel. This is 10% lower than the $3.86 projected price set in February. The soybean harvest price is $9.75 per bushel. That’s 10% higher than the $8.85 projected price. For the most part it means crop insurance payments to farmers will be relatively low says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey.

Assessing the Potential for Higher Corn Prices

The odds are against four dollar cash corn this year and next, at least for any extended period of time.

The monthly average cash price paid to farmers in the United States for their corn has been less than $4.00 a bushel for 27 consecutive months. It’s likely to stay that way well into 2017, too, says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good unless something changes, “Some combination of a reduction in corn supplies and increased consumption will be required in order for prices to move above $4.00 per bushel for an extended time.”

On the supply side, or how much corn is around, USDA’s next Crop Production report is due November 9th. It will contain a new forecast of the size of the 2016 U.S. corn crop. Previous history of yield forecast changes in November in years when the forecast declined in September and again in October as was the case this year, says Darrel Good, show very mixed results with 5 moving lower, 1 unchanged, and 4 of the ten getting bigger. The trade is leaning toward a smaller corn yield this time around. So, not a lot of supply side help expected from the USDA reports on this fall’s crop. That make the southern hemisphere pivotal.

Brazilian production declined from 3.35 billion bushels in 2015 to 2.64 billion bushels in 2016 due to late season drought. Early season USDA projections are for production in 2017 to rebound to 3.29 billion bushels. In addition, Argentina is expected to expand corn area due to reductions in export taxes.

It is too early in the South American growing season to assess yield potential, but production well below early projections would be required to push corn prices higher says Good in his Weekly Outlook on the Farm Doc Daily website. He also thinks a more likely source of a reduction in corn supply may be reduced corn acreage in the United States next year.

Darrel Good - Assuming a three million acre reduction in harvested acreage and consumption during the 2017–18 marketing year near the 14.525 billion bushels projected for this year, the 2017 average yield would need to be below 173 bushels in order for year-ending stocks to be reduced from the 2.32 billion bushels projected for the current year. Under the acreage and consumption assumptions made here, a yield near trend value of 169 bushels would result in year-ending stocks of about 1.99 billion bushels.

There are lot of supply side ifs in that statement. Maybe then demand for corn could be the key to higher prices. The good news here is that U.S. corn exports are up, but that’s based upon last year’s poor corn crop out of Brazil. It doesn’t appear feed usage will increase either, thinks Good, and while the ethanol grind has be increasing, USDA has already penciled in an extra 100 million bushels of usage.

It appears unlikely thinks Darrel Good that higher corn prices will be generated by a large reduction in the estimated size of the 2016 U.S. crop or stronger than projected demand for that corn. That leaves a smaller than expected South American crop or a much smaller U.S. crop in 2017 as the potential sources of higher prices. If South American production increases as projected, a large decline in U.S. acreage and/or a 2017 yield below trend value may be required to push the average corn price above $4.00 during the 2017–18 marketing year.

Illinois Water Conference | Reducing Nutrient Losses

Participants in the University of Illinois 2016 Water Quality Conference Reducing Nutrient Losses panel discuss ways in which farmers and landowners can manage water quality.

  • Laura Christianson, Crop Sciences - University of Illinois
  • Ruth Book, State Conservation Engineer - USDA NRCS
  • Jason Solberg, Illinois Fertilizer & Chemical Association
  • Debbie Fluegel, Trees Forever

Soybean Yields in Illinois

via FarmDocDaily
by Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

In recent years, soybean yields in Illinois have been exceptional, leading to questions on whether technologies have caused a "jump" in soybean yields. While the 2016 state yield will be an outlier, it is too early to say that a new regime of soybean yields exists. Relative to corn yields, soybean yields must increase more to have the same relative yields as in the early 1970s.

Comparing Soybean Yields to Trend

State soybean yields for Illinois have been exceptional from 2014 through 2016. In 2014, Illinois' soybean yield was 56 bushels per acre. The 2014 yield was a record high, 4.5 bushels per acre higher than the next highest yield of 51.5 set in 2010. The 2015 state yield again was 56 bushel per acre. In 2016, a new record will be set, with state yield estimated at 62 bushels per acre in the October Crop Production report produced by the National Agricultural Statistical Service. A 2016 yield of 62 bushels per acre would be 6 bushels per acre higher than the previous highest yield set in 2014 and 2015.

Comparisons to trend further illustrate how high recent yields have been in Illinois (see Figure 1). Fitting a linear trend through soybean yields results in an increase of .48 bushels per year. The 2014 through 2016 yields are significantly above the trend: 5.1 bushels in 2013, 4.6 bushels per acre in 2015, and 10.1 bushels per acre in 2016. The 2016 yield is a statistical outlier. Only one other yield has been 10 bushels away from the 1972-2016 trend, that being in the 1988 drought year when the actual yield was 11.5 bushels below trend



Why are Soybean Yields High?

Recent high soybean yields then lead to the question of what is causing the high yields. Have growing conditions been abnormally good in the past three years, leading to the high yields? Or has technology changed such that a higher yield should be expected in the future? Perhaps genetics have improved, or farmers' use of fungicides and other inputs have been leading to higher yields.

This question - is it good weather or technology changes - is difficult to answer from just observing time series of data. Two contradictory thoughts. Recent yields have been high, and the 2016 yield is a statistical outlier, suggesting technology changes. On the other hand, historical jumps in yields or trends have rarely occurred in the last 50 years. For example, corn yields appeared to be increasing at a faster after 1995 than before 1995. Belief in an increasing yield trend decreased after the poorer yields of 2010, 2011, and 2012. The recent high soybean yields in recent years may simply be a signal of exceptional growing conditions.

Soybeans Compared to Corn Trends

While soybeans have had exceptional yielding years recently, soybeans relatively to corn yields have not been at historically high levels. Figure 2 shows soybean yields divided by corn yields. Higher levels indicate that soybean yields are higher relative to corn. In 2016, soybeans divided by corn yield is .31, which is not above average.



Over time, soybeans-to-corn yields have been trending downwards. An expected level of soybean-to-corn yields in 1972 was .32. The .31 value in 2016 is below the expectation in 1972. The Illinois state yield for 2016 is projected at 202 bushels per acre. For a .32 soybean-to-corn yield ratio to result in 2016, soybean yield would have to be 64.6 bushels, 2.6 bushels higher than currently projected.

Soybean yields have been declining relative to corn yields because of higher trends for corn. In Illinois, corn yields have been increasing by 1.8 bushels per year compared to .48 bushels per year for soybeans. Over time, the higher increase in corn yields causes lower soybean-to-corn yields

Summary

Soybean yields in Illinois have been exceptional in recent years, with yields being much higher than trend yields. It is too early to say that a permanent change has occurred, and history suggests permanent changes occur rarely.

Big Crop Strong Exports an interview with Todd Hubbs

It is likely the export markets along with South American production prospects will drive only periodic price increases for corn and soybeans says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs in this interview with Todd Gleason.

FarmDocDaily Source

Just in Time Parenting

visit Just in Time Parenting website
 

USDA October Reports



University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good reviews the October 12, 2016 Crop Production and WASDE reports including his thoughts on how it changes off-farm storage decisions.

Sell Soybeans for Cash Needs

The United States Department of Agriculture has reported the size of this year’s soybean crop and for the second month in a row it has increased the size of what was already a record breaker. That trend is likely to continue.

USDA, in its October Crop Production report, raised the average national soybean yield by eight-tenths of a bushel. It now stands at 51.4 bushels to the acre and about 4.3 billion bushels strong. It is already a serious record breaker, but not likely big enough, yet, says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good.

Well, I think, taking all the evidence together, saying now that we got bigger in September, and we got bigger in October on soybeans, and the crop is already very big…I think would point to another small increase in the yield forecast in November and perhaps in January as well. So, maybe not by a lot, but I certainly wouldn’t expect the number to come down from what we are looking at right now. –Darrel Good

However, even in the face of a record crop, the price of soybeans has remained fairly strong. This tells Darrel Good farmers should be a little patient as they contemplate when to sell. It might be worth waiting to see how the South American crop unfolds. Although, the U of I number cruncher does have a few caveats.

If I had to choose to sell one or the other, I would still be a seller of soybeans. –Darrel Good

For reference USDA has established, this month, the expected mid-point national cash price received for soybeans by farmers from now until next fall at $9.05, with corn at $3.25 and wheat at $3.70.

You may read Darrel Good’s thoughts on the markets each Monday afternoon on the FarmDocDaily website.

Harrington Seed Destructor Testing

The Harrington Seed Destructor is being tested by the University of Illinois for field level efficacy to control herbicide resistant weeds.

Green Infrastructure & Stress an interview with Bill Sullivan

If you are looking for an easy way to release some of the stress in your life, you might think about taking a walk in a park or just buying some house plants.

Grain Farm Working Capital Nearly Exhausted

Four consecutive years of lower commodity prices has nearly exhausted the financial resources of U.S. grain farmers. Todd Gleason looks into the problem with an agricultural economist from the University of Illinois.

Too Early to Sell the 2017 Soybean Crop

There’s a nagging question farmers are wondering about as they harvest what is quite likely to be their best soybean crop ever. Is it so good, so plentiful, that it might be time to consider selling some of next year’s crop.

Let’s start with some plain facts. The price of soybeans from April through August was higher, on average, than it was in the prior seven months. This says Darrel Good is because the trade expected there to be a whole lot of soybeans leftover from last years harvest by the time right now arrived. Something like 450 million bushels. That didn’t happen. The South American crop failed and U.S. exports jumped by 250 million bushels. Like most of the previous years, all but one since 2008, this left fewer than 200 bushels in the bin from the previous season’s soybean crop. Here’s how Good, a University of Illinois Agricultural Economist, says that should all play out in the coming months.

With consumption during the 2016–17 marketing already projected to be record large, an increase in the average yield forecast (without an unexpected decline in the estimate of harvested acreage) would likely result in an increase in the current projection of year-ending stocks of 365 million bushels. Two additional factors point to the potential for additional weakness in soybean prices during the 2016–17 marketing year. -Darrel Good

First, and you can read this on the Farm Doc Daily website, USDA expects a modest increase in soybean acreage for harvest in South America next year. While an increase of only 1.5 percent is currently projected (mostly in Brazil), normal yield levels result in a projected 3.5 percent (220 million bushels) year-over-year increase in soybeans from the southern hemisphere. If that large crop materializes, the pace of U.S. exports would be expected to experience the normal sharp seasonal decline beginning in the spring of 2017. A second factor that could contribute to lower soybean prices, says Darrel Good, is an increase in soybean acreage in the U.S. next year.

While it is too early to form solid expectations about U.S. acreage, low prices of other commodities relative to soybeans would be expected to result in some switch away from those crops to soybeans. In particular, the large increase in corn acreage in 2016, prospects for relatively large year-ending corn inventories, and the relatively high cost of producing corn would be expected to result in fewer corn acres in 2017. Futures prices for the 2017 corn and wheat crops are higher than prices for the 2016 crop, but those prices are still low relative to prices for the 2017 soybean crop. The USDA’s Winter Wheat Seedings report released in the second week of January 2017 will provide the first indication of acreage response to current price levels. The size of the 2017 soybean crop will still largely hinge on the average yield. It will be interesting to observe if three consecutive years of above trend U.S. average soybean yields will alter early expectations for the average yield in 2017.

Here’s what Darrel Good thinks this all means at the moment. With so much production uncertainty over the next 10 months, a strong pace of Chinese buying, and the recent history of smaller than expected year-ending stocks, it is not completely surprising that the market is not yet reflecting the potential for a growing surplus of soybeans during the 2017–18 marketing year. The question for producers, he says, is whether or not current prices offer a pricing opportunity for a portion of the 2017 crop.

The answer is more likely to be yes for those who intend to increase soybean acreage in response to the current corn, wheat, and soybean price relationships.

Not Much Chance USDA Will Change Corn Yield or Acreage

Early corn yield reports have been good, but pretty variable. There are more than few concerns about a disease called diplodia, too. Some are beginning to piece these items together to make a case for USDA to lower its corn yield estimate. This isn’t very likely thinks University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good.

“The fact is”, says Darrel Good, “if you look at the last 20 years of history, there is a strong tendency of the corn yield estimate to get higher in January compared to what it was in September. This has happened 70% of the time in the last 20 years, and almost 70% of the time in the last 40 years. So, those looking for a lower estimate are bucking history, but you can’t rule it out.”

Maybe not, but even if the USDA yield changes it won’t be by much thinks Darrel Good. Certainly not enough to really alter the supply/demand balance sheet changing it from a surplus to a tight supply situation. He doesn’t expect USDA to change the acreage numbers much either. This is because the difference between the Farm Service Agency reported acreage figures released in August and then again in September was very small.

This tells Darrel Good reporting has occurred in a very timely fashion. Therefore, he doesn’t look for an FSA increase in subsequent reports. Historically when the dust settles on corn, NASS acreage is three to three-and-a-half percent higher than FSA, says the U of I number cruncher, and about two percent higher on soybeans. This is right in the range where the FSA numbers set today.

Consequently, Darrel Good does not expect NASS to change its corn acreage estimate very much going forward. If this is the case, it leaves the U.S. with record corn yield and production figures.

Waiting for a Shift in U.S. Corn Acres

Farmers in the United States are about to harvest one of their best corn crops ever and prices are low. They may need to hang on to the crop for while if they want a better offer, and that could take a shift to soybeans next spring.


The United States Department of Agriculture judges this year’s corn crop to be a record breaker. If it all comes in as predicted in USDA’s September reports there will be none bigger, and the market believes it so far. The price of corn has dropped about a dollar a bushel since earlier in the summer. This price isn’t likely to change much thinks Darrel Good until some new information comes along in one of the USDA reports, and that might not be until next spring.
As long as we have that kind of carryover prospects, the market sees no reason to push prices higher to reduce consumption. - Darrel Good
The big response he’ll be looking for is in U.S. acreage next spring, says Good. The agricultural economist suggests the price of corn now, when compared to the price of soybeans, should result in some acreage shift from corn to soybeans next years. This could result in some relief on the supply side of the corn market.

This shift, if it comes, would be from farmers responding to market signals. Right now the price of soybeans compared to corn suggest farmers in the United States should seriously consider changing up next year’s crop mix, planting more soybeans. As for marketing this year’s corn crop, well, Darrel Good says it’s a waiting game for corn, and may very well be directly related to the acreage response.
There is some carry in the market. It is not huge. Prices remain fairly low. You’d say storage is a better option for corn, but you’ll have to store it at least through the first of the year, maybe into the spring of the year, before you could anticipate much of a rebound in spot prices. - Darrel Good
Darrel Good writes about the commodity markets each Monday. The articles are posted to the FarmDocDaily website.

Quick Ship Soybeans and Storing Corn

The rains falling across the Midwest are delaying harvest for the moment, but they may also bring with them a sales opportunity for farmers. That's because the amount of soybeans left in the nation is pretty small, and processors are in need. University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good says, if farmers can get in and harvest, they might find some pretty good basis levels.

We are coming off a period in central Illinois when spot soybean prices were running well above November futures. Twenty to thirty cents above, but it has begun to erode. However, we are still looking at prices pretty close to option value. It says to me with big yields and that kind of price, well over $9.00, revenue looks pretty good by selling some soybeans at least, if not a majority of the soybeans right out of the field. -Darrel Good

The sooner the better and the higher the quick ship premium, although those are likely to disappear quickly thinks Darrel Good.

2016 County Cash Rents | an interview with Gary Schnitkey

The National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) - an agency of the U.S. Department of Agriculture - released average county cash rents for 2016 the second week of September. These county rents are used to imply average rents for different expected corn yields in the state of Illinois.

Bayer to Purchase Monsanto



Bayer and Monsanto today announced that they signed a definitive merger agreement under which Bayer will acquire Monsanto for $128 U.S. dollars per share in an all-cash transaction.

Bayer Ag Brands
Monsanto Brands

The combined agriculture business will have its global Seeds & Traits and North American commercial headquarters in St. Louis, Missouri, its global Crop Protection and overall Crop Science headquarters in Monheim, Germany, and an important presence in Durham, North Carolina, as well as many other locations throughout the U.S. and around the world. The Digital Farming activities for the combined business will be based in San Francisco, California.

Advancing Together is the company website dedicated to explaining the deal. Bayer employs 116,800 people around the planet. Monsanto employs more than 20,000 of which about 12,000 are based in the United States.




When the merger is complete, scheduled for sometime in 2017, the combined company will be nearly balanced with approximately half of its assets in the agricultural sector and the other half in healthcare.




The acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions, including Monsanto shareholder approval of the merger agreement and receipt of required regulatory approvals. Closing is expected by the end of 2017.

* graphics and video courtesy Bayer

USDA Reports | September 12, 2016

USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports released 11am central Monday September 12, 2016. Visit our USDA Reports page for full details.


Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 11 percent from last year but down less than one percent from the August forecast. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 174.4 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from the August forecast but up 6 bushels from 2015. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 86.6 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast, but up 7 percent from 2015.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.20 billion bushels, up 3 percent from August and up 7 percent from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record 50.6 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels from last month and up 2.6 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 83.0 million acres, unchanged from August but up 1 percent from 2015.

Selected States Yield

CORN
Aug    Sep     State
200.0  200.0  Illinois
187.0  185.0  Indiana
198.0  196.0  Iowa
184.0  184.0  Minnesota
187.0  184.0  Nebraska
145.0  151.0  Kansas
163.0  162.0  Ohio
147.0  142.0  South Dakota
135.0  135.0  North Dakota

SOYBEAN
Aug    Sep     State
 57.0   61.0    Illinois
 55.0   58.0    Indiana
 57.0   58.0    Iowa
 47.0   49.0    Minnesota
 59.0   59.0    Nebraska
 40.0   44.0    Kansas
 52.0   53.0    Ohio
 42.0   43.0    South Dakota
 33.0   35.0    North Dakota

Grain Farm Income & Cash Rent Outlook

by Todd E. Gleason



Urbana, Illinois - Wednesday morning September 7, 2016 University of Illinois Extension Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey presented a webinar looking forward into 2017. The discussion centered on farm profitability, projected income, and cash rents. You may the watch the webinar. What follows is a summary of the hour long content.





The USDA WASDE monthly average corn price is $4.67 from 2006 to 2016. The price of corn has been below this average since the fall of 2013 & Gary Schnitkey believes it is likely to continue to stay below this average through the 2017/18 crop year.

Each year USDA tracks the average marketing year cash price. This price is updated monthly in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The average cash price for corn from 1975 to 2005 is $2.33, $5.95 for soybeans. This is a long term national average cash price. The USDA projected estimates for this marketing year (2016/17) are currently $3.15 and $9.10. The USDA estimate for the 2015 crops is $3.60 and $9.05. This last set can be used to compute expected ARC County payments to be delivered this fall.







Here is a [link](http://farmdoc.illinois.edu/fasttools/index.asp) to the FarmDoc Fast Tools web page from which you may download an Excel spreadsheet to project ARC & PLC payments.

The following tables detail gross revenue per acre for highly productive central Illinois farmland. These are actual, as derived from the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management records, and projected revenues.







op

Operator and land returns have been declining for both corn and soybeans for several years. However, returns from soybeans have been out performing corn since 2013. Schnitkey predicts this will continue through 2017. It would be the fifth year of higher returns for soybeans than corn. Raising corn on cash rented farmland has been a loser since 2014.

Total income on all Illinois corn and soybean farm (all types of owned & cash rented combined) for 2016 projects a breakeven income year.




Schnitkey says farmers will face three key decision making factors as they consider cash renting farmland for 2017, and that it might be better to give up some of the land based on these considerations.




Across the board the University of Illinois agricultural economist says farmers might need to rethink crop rotations. Soybeans have proved better for several years, and it may be time to adjust to this reality. This or it needs to get cheaper to plant corn. Back in 2000 it costs $63 less to sow and harvest an acre of soybeans. This year the difference was more than $200 an acre of non-land costs in favor of soybeans over corn.



Last week the professional farm managers in Illinois suggested they'd be lowering cash rents by about $20 next year (ISPFMRA Survey). Gary Schnitkey's number is a more conservative $17 an acre based on the fact not all land is professionally managed. Neither of these would be enough to make a cash rented farm break even given $3.50 corn and $9.00 soybeans (2017 | by expected corn yield across Illinois).



So what's the impact on the price of farmland? Well, says Schnitkey, if interest rates stay low the price of farmland will drop by approximately the same percentage change as the cash rent drops. Because cash rent changes very slowly, this is good news for farmland owners, bankers, and producer owners.





Each Tuesday Gary Schnitkey posts a new article to the FarmDocDaily website. Periodically he and the other agricultural economist at the University of Illinois hosts webinars. You may register for upcoming webinars and watch those that have already concluded on this page.


September Starters







Low Returns, Crop Prices Keeping Pressure on Farmland Values



(Boone, IA, August 31, 2016) – Illinois farmland values continued their pullback around the state during the first half of 2016 as prices retraced between an estimated 3.3 percent and 7 percent. Continued low net returns and softening commodity prices are cited as the primary cause of the decrease. This is according to the Mid-Year “Snapshot Survey” information gathered by the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers as well as the Illinois Farm and Land Chapter of the REALTORS® Land Institute (RLI). The data analysis is provided by Gary Schnitkey, Ph.D., with the University of Illinois College of ACES. The survey is part of an ongoing and larger annual Land Values and Lease Trends project conducted by the Society.

The survey results were released today at the Farm Progress Show being held in Boone, IA.

According to the survey, below $4 per bushel prices paid for corn are expected to continue into 2017 with some decreases in production costs expected. Cash rents paid are also expected to drop about $20 per acre.

Farmland Values and Volumes
Survey respondents indicated that land values decreased 3.3 percent for Excellent-quality farmland; decreased 4.5 percent for Good-quality land; 5.6 percent of Average-quality land; and dropped 7.0 percent for Fair- quality land.

(In a normal year, Excellent- quality farmland averages over 190 bushels of corn per acre, Good- quality farmland averages between 170 and 190 bushels per acre, Average- quality farmland averages between 150 and 170 bushels per acre, and Fair- quality farmland averages below 150 bushels per acre. )

Respondents estimated prices paid for Excellent-quality farmland during the first half of 2016 averaged $11,100 per acre; $9,400 for Good land; $7,600 for Average-quality land; and $5,800 for Fair-quality farmland. Sixty three percent of those responding to the survey reported that less farmland was sold during the year and 85 percent expect the same amount of land, or less, to be available for sale in 2017. Typical buyers (64 percent) continue to be other farmers and there are no expectations of significant changes in this.

Respondents indicate they are split on whether there will be the same or more demand for land with 48 percent expecting there will be some decreases in demand and 51 percent anticipating no change or a very slight increase.

Price Expectations
Overall, respondents are more pessimistic about prices at midyear this year compared to recent surveys with a full 90 percent expecting some further decreases in values ranging from 1 percent to 10 percent. Corresponding decreases on per-acre-return are also forecast with 49 percent expecting a drop between $25 and $50 per acre and 16 percent predicting decreases of more than $50 per acre. A mere 2 percent expect returns to increase and then only very modestly.

Cash Rents
While a full 93 percent expect corn yields to be above average they expect the price for corn to be around $3.45 per bushel. A full two-thirds of respondents expect a ‘slight’ decrease in production costs. All of this leads to expectations that cash rents will continue their decline along the lines of land productivity.

Expected rents for 2017 for Excellent- and Good-quality land are expected to decrease by 7 percent; 9 percent for Average land; and 6 percent for Fair farmland.





Currently the most popular type of lease arrangement is for Cash Rent (32 percent) followed by Share Rent (29 percent), Variable Cash Rent (20 percent), Modified Share Rent (12 percent) and Custom Farming (7 percent). Respondents indicate Share Rent leases and Fixed Cash Rents will decrease in use while Variable Cash Rents will become more popular.

The ISPFMRA will be conducting its annual Land Values and Lease Trends Survey over the upcoming winter months. The results of this larger survey will be released at the 2017 Illinois Land Values Conference set for March 23, 2017 at the DoubleTree by Hilton in Bloomington, IL.

Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour






Why USDA's Ear Weight is Unlikely to Change



Illinois State Fair Sale of Champions

Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner purchased the Grand Champion Steer at the Illinois State for a record setting $104,000.

Governor Rauner Announces Illinois State Fair Foundation

The Illinois State Fair has a new funding source. Governor Bruce Rauner has announced the creation of the Illinois State Fair Foundation. He says it is a non-governmental, non-political, privately run 501c3 Not-for-Profit to be operated by farmers and community leaders.

The private foundation was created after the Illinois State government failed to pass legislation last year to create a similar board. The private foundation will work to restore and maintain the Illinois State Fair in Springfield, and the DuQuoin State Fair in the southern part of the state.

You may follow the progress of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour August 22-25 on WILLAg.org. Watch for live in field results from the tour scouts as they gather information from corn and soybean field across the Midwest. The updates will come directly from a series of crop scouts. Monday through Thursday we'll also bring you audio updates from Pro Farmer's Brian Grete and Chip Flory. Those updates will air during the 2:06-2:36pm Closing Market Report. Friday Brian Grete will join the Commodity Week panel to review the tour results, Pro Farmer's official estimation of the 2016 crop, and compare those to USDA's August report. You may learn more about the tour on the Pro Farmer website.

2016 Illinois Corn & Soybean at Mid-Season with Emerson Nafziger

Urbana - University of Illinois Extension Agronomist Emerson Nafziger discusses the potential of the corn and soybean crops at mid-season.

PLAYLIST

  • Corn (tipback)
  • Soybean (tall)
  • Growing Degree Days (frost)

IPPA Responds to Chicago Tribune "The Price of Pork" Series

Chicago Tribune “The Price of Pork”
Jennifer Tirey, Executive Director - Illinois Pork Producers Association

New Site for August 18th U of I Agronomy Day

Agronomy Day on the University of Illinois campus is Thursday August 18th.

Agronomy Day at ILLINOIS has moved this year. It’ll be a bit further south of campus at the new facilities on the First Street farm says University of Illinois Extension Weed Scientist Aaron Hager.

The south First Street facility is about 3 miles or so from the usual place, however, it is in a different city on the map. The address is Savoy. Just go straight south from the U of I’s football and basketball arena’s on First Street and you’ll find the farm on the east side of the road. The doors open at 7am Thursday August 18th, with a meal at the noon hour.

Marketing a Low Priced High Volume Corn Crop

The price of corn is predicted to stay low this coming year because the size of the crop should be really big. Todd Gleason has more on just how a farmer might go about marketing under such conditions.

The numbers aren’t pretty as it relates to this year’s corn crop, at least other than the number of bushels in the bin. It should be a great big one, something on the order of 15 billion bushels thinks Darrel Good. Each of those bushels will be worth a lot less than they would have been earlier in the year and now farmers must figure out how to make a lower price and a higher yield result in a sustainable income. The price is too low to call it anything more than sustainable and the crop is too big to put it all in storage says the University of Illinois agricultural economist.

Quote Summary - So, some sales must be made between now and the end of the harvest period. Getting the extra bushels sold in the next few weeks is probably a good idea as pressure continue on futures and basis through harvest. So, if you are looking at an extra 20 to 30 bushels to the acre that you normally do not have, then you should get that priced and out of the way. However, storing the crop is the decision of choice, and the one I would choose at this point. The dilemma is that it may require a fairly long storage period to see a price recovery.

It won’t be quick or even large says Darrel Good, but a recovery should come as the days pass in 2017 and the trade looks forward to the next crop year. Storing corn on the farm and waiting for a higher price is a simple enough decision. Storing it at the grain elevator is a much tougher prospect.

Quote Summary - You’ll spend about 30 cents a bushel to hold corn to next spring. Right now the carry in the market is about that. If you look at harvest time bids plus spring basis there is about a 30 cent carry in the market and this makes commercial storage a breakeven operation at this point other than just holding for higher futures prices. Still, there is likely to be an opportunity to payoff on that, but it will take a much higher price recovery to pay for off-farm storage costs than is the case for on-farm.

You may read more about marketing corn from Darrel Good on the Farm Doc Daily website. A new article on commodity marketing is posted each Monday afternoon.

Control Mosquito Larvae & Protect Yourself

Foggers used by cities and towns can be a pretty effective tool for controlling mosquitos. They can even be used around the house. It is best, however, to start with the basics. Both types of disease carrying mosquitos need standing water to hatch. Get rid of it, especially if it is nasty water says University of Illinois Extension Entomologist Phil Nixon.

Quote Summary - Those mosquitos are quiet biters, they will sneak up and bite you. They are the ones in the case of the northern house mosquito, transmitting west nile virus and in the case of the Asian tiger mosquito Zika virus, if it gets established this coming summer. Both of these mosquitos tend to be short range flyers, usually a quarter to half a mile, and so what you do on your own property and what your neighbors do can make a huge difference in the numbers of these mosquitos and the likelyhood of being bitten.

The first line of defense says Phil Nixon, and the Centers for Disease Control, is to protect your own person and your family. Use an EPA-registered insect repellant. Clean out your gutters and get rid of standing water. If you want to go further, in the case of a backyard get together for instance, even in the Midwest where Zika carrying mosquitos are unlikely to appear, call in bigger guns like Daren Bohannan. He owns a Mosquito Squad franchise.

Quote Summary - So, when we are treating your yard here in the Midwest, we are probably not killing any of the aegypti, but there are some other mosquitos that carry other diseases like West Nile and heart worm for your pets. So, I think more people are concerned in the local area here in central Illinois with just the nuisance of mosquitos.

Once final note on mosquitos. You heard Phil Nixon say the two disease carrying types sneak up on you. Those two types aren’t particularly noisy. So, less to worry about if you hear that mosquito buzzing by just before you feel its bite.

Rachael Erin Nichole

Sunday July 17, 2016

She was doing everything right, and we still lost our Rachael Erin Nichole. She went quickly into the evening sunlight yesterday in Branson, Missouri. A place she and her mother both love.

Claranne and I thank our friends and family for their prayers. Rachael was with us only briefly, but it seemed as natural to us as if she'd been in our home all her life. We loved her as our own, and our children had already adopted Rach as a sister. She is gone from us far to soon... a heart transplant miracle from five years ago that simply succumbed suddenly and without warning.



Rachael loved life and everyone surrounding her. She knew no stranger, and endearingly called most aunt or uncle. Her world was filled with her pets, technology and innocence. She loved movies and General Hospital and the color pink. She had an infectious smile and a dismissive, but sweet eye roll, that could simultaneously amuse and correct. She wanted everyone to be happy. 
Visitation will begin at 9 a.m. Thursday July 21, 2016 at Sacred Heart Catholic Church in Peoria, Illinois followed by a memorial Mass of Christian burial at 10 a.m., with Father Jim Pankiewicz as celebrant. A committal service will follow at the Chapel of Peace at Parkview Cemetery. A celebration of life gathering immediately follow.

Todd & Claranne Gleason
1603 Spring Creek Drive
Mahomet, Illinois 61853  

Donations in Memory of Rachael Van Dyke may be made to Ronald McDonald House RMHC of St. Louis at http://www.rmhc.org/ The charity helped Rachael and her family in their time of need.
1. website - http://www.rmhc.org
2. then hit red DONATE flag
3. choose RMHC of St. Louis near the bottom of the RMHC CHAPTER TABLE
4. select Donation in Memory
5. fill in your information
6. make HONOR/MEMORIAL INFORMATION = Rachael Van Dyke
Should you want to notify the family of your donation select "Send eCard" and put Todd Gleason under Email Recipient Name and todd.e.gleason@gmail.com under email address.