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Showing posts from May, 2018

Western Corn Rootworm Research Trials

When farmers want to know how well an insecticide works they turn to their Land Grant University for unbiased information. Todd Gleason has more from the western corn rootworm trials on the Urbana-Champaign campus.

This little four-row planter is outfitted with some pretty high tech stuff. All of which must be calibrated before it goes to the field where it will be used to plant a western corn rootworm trial. A trial that will assess how well twelve different current in-furrow liquid and granular insecticides work. Well, at least some of them are current products, others are experimentals says University of Illinois Extension Entomologist Nick Seiter, “We like to evaluate all the different options that are out there. There is always potential that we could lose control tactics that we are using currently.”

So, researchers at Illinois want to make sure to evaluate everything available just in case something becomes ineffective. This we there are good answers on what to try next. It is important evaluate efficacy for today’s products and those in the pipeline. Illinois has long done research to test how well different control methods work on the western corn rootworm. Naturally, these include the Bt corn hybrids, too. As for the insect, it is really nimble and quite capable of adapting to all sorts of ways farmers use to control it, says Seiter, “It is an insect that is very good at developing resistance to multiple different control tactics. Out of all the insects we deal with it is the one growers are most interest in in terms of efficacy. In terms of what products, what hybrids, what control tactics are going to give them the best control.”

On that account, Nick Seiter from ILLINOIS, and his counterparts at Land Grants across the nation are working hard to stay up with the ever-changing western corn rootworm and the products used to control it.

How to Play Trump's China Deal for Soybeans

The President has been tweeting about agriculture. He says the potential deal with China will result in “massive” export increases for farm commodities. Most have taken this to mean, at a minimum, that the flow of soybeans will be increased. University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs has been pondering the implications and the deal.

Todd Hubbs specializes is row crop commodity marketing at the University of Illinois. You may read his thoughts on marketing soybeans in today’s (this week’s) post to the farmdocDaily website.

May 21 | WILLAg Newsletter

May 20, 2018
University of Illinois Extension | WILLAg.org
  • Projected Cutting Dates for Black Cutworm in Corn
  • China, NAFTA, and Trade Deals
  • Commodity Week
  • USDA Weekly Crop Progress
  • Market Outlook for Corn and Soybeans
  • U.S. House Fails to Pass 2018 Farm Bill


Projected Cutting Dates for Black Cutworm in Corn



Farmers should be on the lookout for black cutworm in their corn fields.

The earliest projected cutting dates were late last week in Montgomery County. University of Illinois Extension Entomologist Nick Seiter says fields, especially at risk to having plants cut by the black cutworm, include those with later planted corn and those sown into grassy weeds or a late terminated cover crop. Seiter explains, “What you are going to want to do is to scout your field. Look for plants lying on the ground that appears to have been cut with scissors. This is different looking than damage from a bird digging up the plant looking for the seed. These corn plants will be cut off. When you start finding that, scrape around in the residue looking for the larvae. The black cutworm larva is dark colored, with a greasy appearance. It is not slimy, but it looks like it has been coated with Crisco. If you find the worms and about three percent of the plants have been cut throughout the field it is the time to initiate a treatment.”

Seiter says there are several pyrethroid insecticides that can be successfully used as a rescue treatment. He offers these black cutworm management pain on the University of Illinois the Bulletin website.
  • Infestations are more likely in later planted corn, as delayed planting means larger cutworm larvae are present at earlier stages of corn development.
  • Black cutworm moths prefer to lay their eggs on grasses, not bare ground. Therefore, fields with grassy weeds present at or shortly before planting are more likely to experience damaging populations. Similarly, monitor fields closely if a grass cover crop (e.g., cereal rye) is terminated while corn is susceptible to cutworm damage (emergence to ~V5).
  • The economic threshold for black cutworm is 3% of plants cut with black cutworms still present in the field. Look for plants that look like they have been cut roughly with scissors close to the base; plants with intact roots were most likely dug up by birds and do not represent cutworm damage. Remember, larvae do their feeding at night and hide in residue or just below the soil surface during the day, so you will have to do a little bit of digging near the base of the plant to find them.
  • Several Bt corn trait packages offer suppression of black cutworm, but these might be less effective under heavy infestations or against later stage larvae. Most pyrethroid insecticides labeled for use in corn will do an excellent job of controlling larvae as a rescue treatment; just remember that they only pay off when an economic threshold has been reached.
Kelly Estes at the Illinois Natural History Survey coordinates an insect trapping network throughout the state and those results, including the black cutworm cutting dates, are posted online at The Bulletin website - that’s bulletin.ipm.illinois.edu and on Twitter using the handles @ILPestBulletin or @ILPestSurvey.



China, NAFTA, and Trade Deals

Let’s cut to the chase. There have been no trade deals announced. However, trade tensions with China have eased. NAFTA issues remain unresolved, and some in the Trump Administration say it may have to wait until next year.

Here’s a selection of quotes from the Sunday Morning News shows. Thanks to Kieth Good from farmpolicynews.illinois.edu & @farmpolicy for curating the list.







May 17 | Commodity Week



Panelists
- Curt Kimmel, Bates Commodities
- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing
- Wayne Nelson, L&M Commodities
- Jacquie Voeks, Stewart Peterson



Last Week | USDA Weekly Crop Progress

Each Monday during the growing season USDA releases a Weekly Crop Progress and Conditions Report. In the early 1990’s I began calling statisticians in the three “I” states to record audio commentary from them individually. The idea was to provide a more granular look at how corn and soybeans were fairing in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. The audio releases have continued ever since, but now USDA posts them to the state NASS websites. Not every state produces an audio version of the report, but four of the five top corn-producing states in the nation do. Each Tuesday afternoon they are aired during the WILLAg.org Closing Market Report. More often than not there is a tidbit in them that gives you something to really consider. For instance, in last week’s release, the Iowa audio report detailed the lag in the north-central part of the state. Do take a listen, and then tune each Tuesday to hear more from USDA. The reports are compiled as of each Sunday, released at 3pm each Monday, and aired on WILLAg.org each Tuesday.

USDA’s May 13, 2018, Weekly Crop Progress report showed 62% of the nation’s corn crop has been planted, just 1 percentage point behind last year. 28% of the corn has emerged. 35% of the soybean crop has been sown nine-points ahead of the average. 10% of soybeans have emerged. 45% of winter wheat has headed. Just 36% is in good to excellent condition. Last year that combined number was 51%. Here are the reports from Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Indiana.





Market Outlook for Corn and Soybeans


Farmers, as we enter the last half of May, are nearing the end of the spring planting season and they are turning their attention again to the marketplace. Todd Gleason has more on how one agricultural economist sees prices playing out for the year.

We’ll start with the last numbers USDA publishes in the Supply and Demand tables for each commodity, the season’s average price. For corn, that number - at the midpoint - is $3.80. University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs is a bit more optimistic. He has it at $4.05. His soybean price, however, is less than USDA’s. The agency has it at $10.00 a bushel. Hubbs puts it at $9.45. The difference in viewpoint says Hubbs lands squarely on soybean exports, “When we look forward to 18/19 the 2.29 billion bushel USDA projection seems a bit high especially when you consider the size of the Brazilian soybean crop and China’s aspiration to increase domestic soybean production while cutting back on imports for the first time in over a decade. It is unclear if China can pull this off, but I’ve got exports at 2.20 billion bushels in 18/19 and that may be generous considering whats going on currently in the market.”


So, Todd Hubbs soybean export figure is 90 million bushels lower than USDA’s for the coming marketing season. It’s lower for the current marketing year, too. All-in-all his soybean supply & demand table puts the new crop ending stocks at 562 million bushels. That’s a far cry from the much more optimistic USDA 415 million bushels projection and the reason his price projection is 55 cents a bushel lower than USDA’s. Again USDA is $10.00, Hubbs is at $9.45. His corn number swings in the opposite direction.

USDA, in the May reports, projected the price of new crop corn at $3.80. Hubbs is at $4.05. The reason why is pretty simple. Hubbs says he uses a lower yield trend line yield, "The main difference between my projections and USDA is the trend yield number. We sit at 171.4 whereas USDA has it at 174 bushels to the acre and the final yield makes a big difference in the consumption pattern and the final price.

Again, USDA is at 174 bushels to the acre and Todd Hubbs is using 171.4. Both numbers are calculated from the same USDA yield data set. USDA uses a smaller subset starting at about the time Bt corn was introduced. Hubbs’ set goes back a couple more decades, and consequently, his yield number is lower. The resulting price difference in the supply & demand tables for new crop corn is $3.80 for USDA and $4.05 for Hubbs.



U.S. House Fails to Pass 2018 Farm Bill

Friday, May 18, 2018, the United States House of Representatives voted on and failed to pass legislation to create the 2018 version of the Farm Bill. Fourteen members of the Republican Party’s Freedom Caucus, 16 moderate Republicans, and the Democrats cast no votes. It sets up a complex path forward for the bill.

U.S. House Fails to Pass 2018 Farm Bill

Friday, May 18, 2018, the United States House of Representatives voted on and failed to pass legislation to create the 2018 version of the Farm Bill. Fourteen members of the Republican Party’s Freedom Caucus, 16 moderate Republicans, and the Democrats cast no votes. It sets up a complex path forward for the bill.



Farmers should be on the lookout for black cutworm in their corn fields.

The earliest projected cutting dates were late last week in Montgomery County. University of Illinois Extension Entomologist Nick Seiter says fields especially at risk to having plants cut by the black cut worm include those with later planted corn and those sown into grassy weeds or a late terminated cover crop. Seiter explains, “What you are going to want to do is to scout your field. Look for plants lying on the ground that appear to have been cut with scissors. This is different looking than damage from a bird digging up the plant looking for the seed. These corn plants will be cut off. When you start finding that, scrape around in the residue looking for the larvae. The black cut worm larva is dark colored, with a greasy appearance. It is not slimy, but it looks like it has been coated with Crisco. If you find the worms and about three percent of the plants have been cut throughout the field it is the time to initiate a treatment.”

Seiter says there are several pyrethroid insecticides that can be successfully used as a rescue treatment. He offers these black cutworm management pain on the University of Illinois the Bulletin website.

  • Infestations are more likely in later planted corn, as delayed planting means larger cutworm larvae are present at earlier stages of corn development.
  • Black cutworm moths prefer to lay their eggs on grasses, not bare ground. Therefore, fields with grassy weeds present at or shortly before planting are more likely to experience damaging populations. Similarly, monitor fields closely if a grass cover crop (e.g., cereal rye) is terminated while corn is susceptible to cutworm damage (emergence to ~V5).
  • The economic threshold for black cutworm is 3% of plants cut with black cutworms still present in the field. Look for plants that look like they have been cut roughly with scissors close to the base; plants with intact roots were most likely dug up by birds and do not represent cutworm damage. Remember, larvae do their feeding at night and hide in residue or just below the soil surface during the day, so you will have to do a little bit of digging near the base of the plant to find them.
  • Several Bt corn trait packages offer suppression of black cutworm, but these might be less effective under heavy infestations or against later stage larvae. Most pyrethroid insecticides labeled for use in corn will do an excellent job of controlling larvae as a rescue treatment; just remember that they only pay off when an economic threshold has been reached.
Kelly Estes at the Illinois Natural History Survey coordinates an insect trapping network throughout the state and those results, including the black cut worm cutting dates, are posted online at The Bulletin website - that’s bulletin.ipm.illinois.edu and on twitter using the handles @ILPestBulletin or @ILPestSurvey.

Market Outlook for Corn and Soybeans


Farmers, as we enter the last half of May, are nearing the end of the spring planting season and they are turning their attention again to the marketplace. Todd Gleason has more on how one agricultural economist sees prices playing out for the year.

We’ll start with the last numbers USDA publishes in the Supply and Demand tables for each commodity, the season’s average price. For corn, that number - at the midpoint - is $3.80. University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs is a bit more optimistic. He has it at $4.05. His soybean price, however, is less than USDA’s. The agency has it at $10.00 a bushel. Hubbs puts it at $9.45. The difference in viewpoint says Hubbs lands squarely on soybean exports, “When we look forward to 18/19 the 2.29 billion bushel USDA projection seems a bit high especially when you consider the size of the Brazilian soybean crop and China’s aspiration to increase domestic soybean production while cutting back on imports for the first time in over a decade. It is unclear if China can pull this off, but I’ve got exports at 2.20 billion bushels in 18/19 and that may be generous considering whats going on currently in the market.”



So, Todd Hubbs soybean export figure is 90 million bushels lower than USDA’s for the coming marketing season. It’s lower for the current marketing year, too. All-in-all his soybean supply & demand table puts the new crop ending stocks at 562 million bushels. That’s a far cry from the much more optimistic USDA 415 million bushels projection and the reason his price projection is 55 cents a bushel lower than USDA’s. Again USDA is $10.00, Hubbs is at $9.45. His corn number swings in the opposite direction.

USDA, in the May reports, projected the price of new crop corn at $3.80. Hubbs is at $4.05. The reason why is pretty simple. Hubbs says he uses a lower yield trend line yield, "The main difference between my projections and USDA is the trend yield number. We sit at 171.4 whereas USDA has it a 174 bushels to the acre and the final yield makes a big difference in the consumption pattern and the final price.



Again, USDA is at 174 bushels to the acre and Todd Hubbs is using 171.4. Both numbers are calculated from the same USDA yield data set. USDA uses a smaller subset starting at about the time Bt corn was introduced. Hubbs’ set goes back a couple more decades, and consequently, his yield number is lower. The resulting price difference in the supply & demand tables for new crop corn is $3.80 for USDA and $4.05 for Hubbs.

May 10 | USDA WASDE ReAct with Todd Hubbs

The monthly WASDE report for May 2018 introduced the first look at the new crop corn and soybean supply & demand tables. Todd Gleason has more with University of Illinois commodity markets specialist Todd Hubbs.







Soybean Crush Continues Strength



by Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois
read farmdocDaily article

Soybean crush levels picked up substantially over the last few months due to strong crush margins. Driven by production issues in Argentina, the increase in crush margin recently is attributed to rapid growth in soybean meal prices. For the 2017–08 marketing year, the USDA currently projects the domestic crush at 1.97 billion bushels, up 3.6 percent from last marketing year. Soybean meal use needs to build on recent progress to meet or exceed the current crush projection.



Soybean crush during the first half of the marketing year from September 2017 through February 2018 equaled 1010.6 million bushels, 3.5 percent greater than the total of the previous year. The USDA’s current projection indicates a 3.6 percent increase for the year and implies that the crush during the last half of the year will be 3.7 percent larger than the crush during the previous marketing year. The Census Bureau estimated the March 2018 crush level at 182.2 million bushels, 13 percent larger than the crush during March 2017. The March estimate implies that the crush during the last five months of the year must total 776.8 million bushels, 1.7 percent higher than the crush of a year ago, to reach the USDA projection of 1.97 billion bushels.

The pace of domestic crush accelerated in February and March on a substantial uptick in crush margin. The strengthening of the crush margin coincided with changing expectations regarding Argentinian soybean production. Current forecasts of Argentine production reflect the poor growing season and sit at 1.47 billion bushels for the 2018 crop year, down 654 million bushels from last year’s production. The potential for an additional 80 million bushel decline in production is a distinct possibility. Soybean crush projections for Argentina fell 1.95 million tons to 45.4 million tons and continued issues associated with soybean crushing in the region may lower this number over the next few months.



The growth in soybean meal prices associated with potential shortfalls saw crush margins in Decatur move from an average of $1.63 during September through February 7 to the current level of $2.63. Soybean meal prices in Decatur expanded from $327 per ton in early February to an average of $390 per ton over the last month. Soybean oil prices continue to show weakness with soy oil stocks growing to 2.44 billion pounds in March, up 0.8 percent from last year. Lower projections in the April WASDE report for biodiesel use of soybean oil and the growth in production increased marketing year ending stock projections. Soybean oil prices declined from 31.6 cents per pound in early February to an average of 29.5 cents per pound over the last month in Decatur. The continuation of crush strength in 2018 is dependent on solid soybean meal markets.

The April WASDE report increased domestic consumption of soybean meal by 250 thousand tons and expanded exports by 100 thousand tons. Total use is forecast at 47.05 million tons in April, up 4.5 percent from last year.

Domestically, large livestock supply indicates continued consumption of soybean meal throughout the spring and summer as beef, pork, and broiler production look to expand over last year’s levels on recent positive feeder and packer margins. Red meat and poultry production came in 2 percent higher during the first quarter of 2018. USDA projections set second quarter production increases at 4.4 percent. Despite the recent rise in soybean meal price, a continuation of strong domestic consumption appears feasible for 2018.



While domestic consumption of soybean meal gives added weight to continued strong crush margins, soybean meal export markets need to provide support as well. Through the first half of the soybean meal marketing year (October 2017 – March 2018), soybean meal exports increased 3.2 percent over last year, to 6.92 million short tons. The USDA’s current projection indicates a 7.8 percent increase for the year and implies that the exports during the last half of the year will be 14 percent larger than second half exports during the previous marketing year. Census Bureau estimated the March 2018 export level at 1.414 million short tons, 3 percent lower than during March 2017. Soybean meal exports during the last six months of the year must total 5.577 million tons to reach USDA projections.

While soybean exports continue to disappoint, soybean crush levels maintain a pace to set record levels of use associated with crush this marketing year. Domestic use of soybean meal appears set to maintain support for strong crush margins. The progression of soybean meal exports through the remainder of the spring and summer will provide insight into the potential for crush levels as we move into next marketing year and merit monitoring.

Discussion and graphs associated with this article available here.

Soil-borne Plant Disease Trials @ Illinois

Over the next few years, companies will release new and updated ways to use seed treatments to control soil-borne diseases in corn and soybeans. Researchers at the University of Illinois are looking to assess how well each of these might work.

One of the first steps in the scientific process is to lay out the trials. In this case that means intentionally inoculating the area with a disease says University of Illinois Extension Plant Pathologist Nathan Kleczewski, “We are putting in some different soybean and corn trials today looking at different seed treatments for controlling seed-borne diseases. So, we have some pythium trials, some SDS trials, and some rhizoctonia trials. We’re getting those in the ground.”

Kleczewski is testing how well both old and new seed-treatment products work. He’s wants to see how efficacious they are at controlling corn and soybean plant diseases, “We are also trying some existing products utilizing different mechanisms of application to see if they might be more or less effective than current ways we are applying them.”

The extension based research done on the Univeristy of Illinois farms will guide future recommendations the Land Grant makes as it relates to the use of seed-treatments.