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CFAP Calculations, Payment Rates, & Explanation

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Todd E. Gleason · Jonathan Coppess on the CFAP Calculations
University of Illinois ag policy specialist Jonathan Coppess and ILLINOIS Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason discuss the USDA CFAP coronavirus direct payment announcement.

CFAP payments for corn and soybeans max out at 1/2 of total production and are subject to other payment limitations. The calculation compares 1/2-of-total-production to 100% of total-unpriced-inventory on January 15th. The smaller of those two numbers is multiplied by the payment rate to attain the full CFAP payment. FSA will provide a spreadsheet for the calculation and other related paperwork starting May 26, 2020.

$0.33.5 for corn
$0.47.5 for soybeans

CFAP funds will be distributed in two checks. The first will be 80% of the full amount. The second will be up-to-the remaining 20% depending on available funding. It could be prorated to a smaller amount.


This payment rate schedule was developed by University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitkey. The …

Discovering How Cover Crop Termination Impacts Insect Populations

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Researchers at the University of Illinois were in the field this week counting insects in cereal rye used as a cover crop ahead of corn. It's all part of the work ILLINOIS Extension Entomologist Nick Seiter is doing with cover crops.


This University of Illinois cover crop research is funded in part by Illinois NREC. The Nutrient Research Education Council was created by state statute in 2012 and funded by a 75-cent per ton assessment on bulk fertilizer.

Corn, Soybeans, COVID-19, & the Farm Safety Net

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It sure looks like COVID–19 is going to do some serious damage to the nation’s corn and soybean farmers. A new study from the University of Illinois estimates the damage at about eight billion dollars. This was the case on May the 5th.



That eight billion is a decline of nine percent across the nation and ILLINOIS Extension Ag Economist Gary Schnitkey says it does not include losses that have already piled up for corn and soybeans still in the bin from last year, "If you look at the 2019 crop, obviously there are losses on the 2019 crop from the sales value, we were looking forward at the 2020 crop and getting a feel for the losses on the 2020 crop."

That loss Gary Schnitkey is talking about is the difference between what farmers were expecting to make pre-COVID–19 and what they are likely to make post-COVID–19 on the 2020 corn and soybean harvest, "So we took the futures prices on that date to reflect what harvest prices would look like, projected forward the market-ye…

WHIP+: Farm Aid for Losses Due to Natural Disasters

farmdoc Daily article

The signup period for a program called WHIP+ (whip-plus) is open for farmers suffering losses because of natural disasters during the last two years.



WHIP+ is the continuation of a federal disaster aid program. Most farmers in the corn belt will recall it as the program used last year to bump up prevent plant payments by 15%. Congress introduced WHIP+ last summer, then during the December appropriations process, it dropped in an additional $1.5 billion dollars in funding and expanded qualifying crop losses to include losses due to excessive moisture and D3 and D4 drought.

Producers who suffered either of these types of losses in 2018 or 2019 can apply for WHIP+ assistance through a local Farm Service Agency (FSA) office today says University of Illinois Research Specialist Krista Swanson, "So, the program provides payments for yield losses but there are still a lot of unknowns. The signup period started March 23rd. However, FSA offices across the state do n…

Farmers and the Paycheck Protection Program

Congress has moved to allocate additional money to the Paycheck Protection Program and farmers could benefit.



Bob Rhea of the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association says some farmers should be able to apply for the government-backed SBA loans, “We believe farmers are eligible to participate in the PPP, the Paycheck Protection Program, under the CARES Act. They don’t specifically identify agriculture as a participating entity but in the very broad scope of things they say any eligible business with less than 500 employees is eligible to participate in the Paycheck Protection Program.”

PPP is administered through local banks and is available through Farm Credit offices. Bob Rhea says it is a loan but one that can be easily forgiven. Here’s how self-employed farmers and others would make the paycheck calculation, “It does include a very unique forgiveness provision for a Small Business Administration loan. It is really based on eight weeks out of 52. Approximately 15% of thei…

US Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat in World Perspective: Importance of the US Cropped Acre Constraint

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By Carl Zulauf, Agricultural Economist - The Ohio State University & Krista Swanson, University of Illinois ACES
link to farmdoc Daily article

Wide-spread concern exists over the large decline in US share of world corn, soybean, and wheat exports (see Figure 1). Moreover, quantity of corn and wheat exports have never consistently exceeded their early 1980 levels (see Figure 2). Tariff wars have heightened the concern. Long term impact of the tariff wars is a concern, but this article argues that graphs such as Figures 1 and 2 exaggerate the decline in US agriculture’s international standing and mask key relationships that frame private and public decisions. Data cited in this article come from PSD (Production, Supply, and Demand website).







Reasons for Exaggeration Growth in domestic US use is ignored. US consumption of meat, livestock products, and especially biofuels has grown, displacing exports, everything else remaining the same. Zulauf estimates US corn exports are 1.4 billion …

Planting Corn and Soybeans in 2020

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by Emerson Nafziger, ILLINOIS Extension Agronomist

March rainfall in Illinois ranged from normal to a couple of inches above normal, but the last week of March and first week of April have been relatively dry, and field operations are getting underway. The April 6 NASS report indicates that there were 3.1 days suitable for fieldwork in Illinois during the week ending on April 5, but no planting was recorded. As is often the case in early April, soils are wet over most of the state.

The 4-inch soil temperatures at 10 AM have been close to 50 degrees in southern Illinois, and over the past week they have increased from the low 40s to the mid–40s in central and northern Illinois. The forecast is for a return to cooler weather later this week, and possibly to wetter conditions as well. Such “yo-yoing” is normal for April, and it often brings up questions about what to do when the weather forecast is for conditions to deteriorate as planting approaches. Do we plant or do we wait?

There is…

Crude Oil Makes New Low, Ethanol Tumbles & is Corn too High

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That new #crudeoil low is not good for #ethanol or #corn. I did two interviews on this at the end of last week. One with Eric Mosbey during Commodity Week and one with Geoff Cooper from @EthanolRFA @ScottIrwinUI & @jt_hubbs wrote an @farmdocDaily article, too.


The price of crude oil has reached a new contract low below $20 a barrel.


The ethanol industry is struggling under the weight of #COVID19 and the crude oil price war. I spoke with Geoff Cooper, President and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association about the situation. With crude in the $20s, #corn is too high for ethanol.



The estimated reductions in #ethanol use are 143 million gallons in March, 391 mln in April, and 207 mln in May, for a total reduction of 741 million gallons or 256 mln bushels of read-reduction-estimate-with-caution #corn write @ScottIrwinUI & @jt_hubbs.

link to @farmdocDaily article

Lincolnland Agri-Energy’s Eric Mosbey explains how #COVID19 and the low price of #crudeoil is affecting #ethanol plants lik…

COVID-19 Guidelines Extended to April 30

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President Trump Sunday extended the 15 days social distancing #COVID19 guidelines until the end of April. He made the announcement during a Rose Garden Coronavirus Task Force press conference.

Mr. Trump went on later in the press conference to say he, at this point, would not consider relaxing the guidelines for different regions sometime in April. The President mentioned parts of the corn belt as an example during this exchange. 

Here is a link to the federal COVID-19 guidelines.


Coronavirus & Ag Webinar Friday

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The farmdoc team at the University of Illinois College of ACES is starting a webinar series called "farmdocDaily Live" to address agricultural issues related to coronavirus. The first webinar is this Friday.

University of Illinois agricultural economists will host a webinar on the impact of coronavirus Friday morning March 20, 2020, at 11 a.m. central. It will be the first in a series called farmdocDaily Live. Farmdoc team members including Scott Irwin, Todd Hubbs, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, and Nick Paulson will each spend a few minutes calling out specific issues of concern and, if possible, some solutions to consider. ILLINOIS Extension farm broadcaster Todd Gleason will moderate the series and facilitate the question and answer sessions.

The farmdocDaily Live webinars are planned to continue regularly each Tuesday and Friday at 11 a.m. The second program in the series, Tuesday, March 24, will feature University of Illinois infectious disease specialist Jim Lowe. H…

farmdocDaily Live | Coronvirus & Ag

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Friday morning at 11am central join farmdocDaily's Jonathan Coppess, Scott Irwin, Gary Schnitkey, and Nick Paulson for the first in our new farmdocDaily Live series. Todd Gleason will lead the 30-minute discussion of the coronavirus impact on ag, planting decisions, and policy
farmdocDaily Live | #Coronavirus & Ag register today http://go.illinois.edu/fddlive

Profitability & IL Corn/Soybean Acreage Shifts

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by Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension
link to farmdocdaily article

At its recent Agricultural Outlook Forum, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released estimates of 2020 planted acres in the United States, with both corn and soybean acres increasing from 2019 levels (see Grain and Oilseed Outlook, February 21, 2020). When compared to 2018 plantings, USDA is projecting a 2020 shift to more corn acres and fewer soybean acres across the United States. Projecting this shift across the U.S. seems reasonable. However, most of those shifts likely will occur outside of the corn belt. Estimated 2020 profitability in Illinois suggests relatively even acres of corn and soybeans in Illinois.


A University of Illinois agricultural economist says corn is likely to be more profitable than soybeans this year across the state. However, as Todd Gleason reports, historical relationships do not suggest large acreage shifts in the state.

Projected Acreage Shifts in the U.S. For corn and soybeans, USD…

The Pace of Soybean Use

by Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - ILLINOIS Extension
Iink to farmdocdaily articleUSDA’s soybean ending stocks forecast of 425 million bushels for the marketing year may show little if any change in the upcoming WASDE report. Despite the recent strength in soybean crush, the current focus is squarely on the impacts of the coronavirus and the implications for both crush and exports as the disease continues to evolve.
University of Illinois ag economist Todd Hubbs discusses the impact coronavirus is and may have on the use of soybeans across the planet.Soybean crush in January saw a record total for the month of 188.78 million bushels. Thus far this marketing year, crush set monthly records in October, December, and January. Even with those monthly records, the crush pace during the first five months of the marketing year, at 897 million bushels, equaled last year’s pace. The USDA’s current projection for crush indicates a 13 million bushel increase over last year. To reach the crush…

A Discussion on Crop Insurance & ARC/PLC with Gary Schnitkey

This is a lengthy discussion with ILLINOIS ag economist Gary Schnitkey detailing the ARC/PLC and Crop Insurance decisions farmers throughout the nation will need to make by March 16, 2020.

March 01 | WILLAg Newsletter

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March 01, 2020

The WILLAg.org All Day Ag Outlook is Tuesday. I'd really like to see you at the Beef House. Buy  your ticket now or just show up. (FYI it is way easier on us if you purchase ahead of time).

You may buy your tickets online today or by calling 800–898–1065 by noon Monday. The $30 ticket price includes Beef House rolls and coffee in the morning and your Beef House Lunch! The doors open at 8am central / 9am eastern Tuesday, March 3, 2020, at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana.

walk-ins are welcome!
Todd Gleason, Farm Broadcaster
ILLINOIS Extension
tgleason@illinois.edu or 217–390–1858



Purchase Tickets Online | $30 Each | Click2Buy
- or call 800-898-1065 by noon Monday
- the ticket price includes Beef House rolls and coffee in the morning and your Beef House Lunch!

Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Beef House
16501 Indiana 63
Covington, Indiana 47932

Registration
9:00am eastern / 8:00am central

Opening Remarks
* Todd E. Gleason, ILLINOIS Extension

The Future of Agriculture
* Stev…

2020 All Day Ag Outlook

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Purchase Tickets Online | $30 Each | Click2Buy
- the ticket price includes Beef House rolls and coffee in the morning and your Beef House Lunch!

Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Beef House
16501 Indiana 63
Covington, Indiana 47932

Registration
9:00am eastern / 8:00am central

Opening Remarks
9:25am eastern / 8:25am central
        • Todd E. Gleason, ILLINOIS Extension

The Future of Agriculture
9:30am eastern / 8:30am central
        • Steve Maulberger, Vice President Crop Risk Services, Inc.

Cash Grain Panel
10:00am eastern / 9:00am central
        • Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
        • Aaron Curtis, MID-CO Commodities
        • Brian Stark, The Andersons
        • Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities

Global Weather
11:00am eastern / 10:00am central
        • Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions

Soybean Panel
11:30am eastern / 10:30am central
        • Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
        • Merrill Crowley, Midwest Market Solutions
        • Ellen Dearden, AgReview
        • Chip N…

Submit Input to NRCS on Easement Rule

The Natural Resources Conservation Service has posted a new Agricultural Conservation Easement Program rule to the Federal Register. The Assistant State Conservationist for Easement Program from Illinois NRCS explains just how easements work and what the new rules offer. Listen to Todd Gleason’s interview with Paula Hingson.USDA NRCS Press ReleaseChampaign, Illinois – USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) seeks public comments on its interim rule for the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). ACEP is USDA’s premier conservation easement program, helping landowners protect working agricultural lands and wetlands. The interim rule – now available on the Federal Register – will be in effect until the final rule is published. These activities will make changes to the program prescribed by the 2018 Farm Bill.“Through easements, agricultural landowners are protecting agricultural lands from development, restoring grazing lands and returning wetlands to their natur…

Gary Schnitkey on the ARC/PLC Decision

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Farmers will be making two government program decisions on or before March 15th. What to do about crop insurance is one of them. The other is to enroll in the updated farm safety net programs.


The 2018 Farm Bill included some changes that require farmer to do a couple of things. First, they'll want to update their yields with FSA, if and only if the current set is higher than those already on record. Second, a decision must be made about which farm safety net to use for the crop harvest last year, and the one that will be harvested this year. Gary Schnitkey from the University of Illinois has some advice, "If you have a farm that is complete Prevent Plant, I think you are going to want to do ARC-IC. One FSA farm. If they are yielding at all, you'll probably lean to PLC for corn, ARC-CO for soybeans and PLC for wheat".

You may learn more about ARC-IC on the farmdoc website. ILLINOIS has developed a set of tools farmers can use to help them make the best possible ARC/P…

Revision of 2020 Corn and Soybean Budgets

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The new trade deals have caused Gary Schnitkey to update the price outlook for the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons. As you’ll hear from Todd Gleason this really didn’t change much in the #ILLINOIS crop budgets for corn or soybeans.

by Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension Agricultural Economist
link to farmdocDaily article

Budgets for 2020 have been revised and are now available on farmdoc. Revised budgets use a corn price of $3.90 per bushel and soybean price of $9.10 per bushel, both of which are an increase in price expectations following what appears to be softening of trade difficulties between China and the U.S. Even at those prices, returns are projected at negative levels for 2020. Before 2020 returns are positive, yields must be well above trend or Market Facilitation Program payments must continue in 2020.

Corn Returns Table 1 shows 2018 actual returns for both corn and soybeans grown on high-productivity farmland in central Illinois. These values are summarized from farms enrolle…

Waiting for the Trade Deal

The highly anticipated release of USDA’s crop production and ending stocks reports last Friday created a somewhat negative tone in corn and soybean markets. Despite the slightly bearish tilt, prices for both commodities closed higher on Friday. The pending phase one trade agreement and South American production prospects look to set the tone for prices over the near term. - Todd Hubbs, ILLINOIS Extension


by Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois
link to original farmdocDaily article

Corn production for the U.S. in 2019 came in at 13.69 billion bushels, up 31 million bushels from the previous forecast on higher national average yields. Average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre is one bushel higher than the previous forecast. The harvested acreage estimate of 81.5 million acres is down from the November forecast of 81.8 million acres. Current production estimates for corn show eight percent of the crop still in the field and open the estimate to possible revision in the future.

December 1 …

Hog Numbers are Up & Profits Should Come

The number of hogs being raised in the U.S. has been going up since mid–2014. However, it isn’t necessarily because profits are great. The last Hogs and Pigs report released by USDA, back in December, was a record-setter at 77 million 338 thousand. That’s three-percent more than year ago. The expansion comes despite unprofitable margins and uncertainties related to trade issues says Jason Franken of Western Illinois University. The fact is there will be more hogs going to market from January to May. One of the reasons, Franken says, is that the litter size has grown on average and is now over 11 piglets per sow, “The continuation of the upward trend in pigs per litter, combined with reported farrowing intentions suggests more hogs going to market in 2020.” Winter farrowing intentions are up 1 percent from actual farrowings last year and 5% from two years ago. The spring farrowing intentions are also up slightly from last year and up 3 percent from 2 years back.All of these numbers poi…