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Crude Oil Makes New Low, Ethanol Tumbles & is Corn too High

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That new #crudeoil low is not good for #ethanol or #corn. I did two interviews on this at the end of last week. One with Eric Mosbey during Commodity Week and one with Geoff Cooper from @EthanolRFA @ScottIrwinUI & @jt_hubbs wrote an @farmdocDaily article, too.


The price of crude oil has reached a new contract low below $20 a barrel.


The ethanol industry is struggling under the weight of #COVID19 and the crude oil price war. I spoke with Geoff Cooper, President and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association about the situation. With crude in the $20s, #corn is too high for ethanol.



The estimated reductions in #ethanol use are 143 million gallons in March, 391 mln in April, and 207 mln in May, for a total reduction of 741 million gallons or 256 mln bushels of read-reduction-estimate-with-caution #corn write @ScottIrwinUI & @jt_hubbs.

link to @farmdocDaily article

Lincolnland Agri-Energy’s Eric Mosbey explains how #COVID19 and the low price of #crudeoil is affecting #ethanol plants lik…

COVID-19 Guidelines Extended to April 30

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President Trump Sunday extended the 15 days social distancing #COVID19 guidelines until the end of April. He made the announcement during a Rose Garden Coronavirus Task Force press conference.

Mr. Trump went on later in the press conference to say he, at this point, would not consider relaxing the guidelines for different regions sometime in April. The President mentioned parts of the corn belt as an example during this exchange. 

Here is a link to the federal COVID-19 guidelines.


Coronavirus & Ag Webinar Friday

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The farmdoc team at the University of Illinois College of ACES is starting a webinar series called "farmdocDaily Live" to address agricultural issues related to coronavirus. The first webinar is this Friday.

University of Illinois agricultural economists will host a webinar on the impact of coronavirus Friday morning March 20, 2020, at 11 a.m. central. It will be the first in a series called farmdocDaily Live. Farmdoc team members including Scott Irwin, Todd Hubbs, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, and Nick Paulson will each spend a few minutes calling out specific issues of concern and, if possible, some solutions to consider. ILLINOIS Extension farm broadcaster Todd Gleason will moderate the series and facilitate the question and answer sessions.

The farmdocDaily Live webinars are planned to continue regularly each Tuesday and Friday at 11 a.m. The second program in the series, Tuesday, March 24, will feature University of Illinois infectious disease specialist Jim Lowe. H…

farmdocDaily Live | Coronvirus & Ag

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Friday morning at 11am central join farmdocDaily's Jonathan Coppess, Scott Irwin, Gary Schnitkey, and Nick Paulson for the first in our new farmdocDaily Live series. Todd Gleason will lead the 30-minute discussion of the coronavirus impact on ag, planting decisions, and policy
farmdocDaily Live | #Coronavirus & Ag register today http://go.illinois.edu/fddlive

Profitability & IL Corn/Soybean Acreage Shifts

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by Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension
link to farmdocdaily article

At its recent Agricultural Outlook Forum, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released estimates of 2020 planted acres in the United States, with both corn and soybean acres increasing from 2019 levels (see Grain and Oilseed Outlook, February 21, 2020). When compared to 2018 plantings, USDA is projecting a 2020 shift to more corn acres and fewer soybean acres across the United States. Projecting this shift across the U.S. seems reasonable. However, most of those shifts likely will occur outside of the corn belt. Estimated 2020 profitability in Illinois suggests relatively even acres of corn and soybeans in Illinois.


A University of Illinois agricultural economist says corn is likely to be more profitable than soybeans this year across the state. However, as Todd Gleason reports, historical relationships do not suggest large acreage shifts in the state.

Projected Acreage Shifts in the U.S. For corn and soybeans, USD…

The Pace of Soybean Use

by Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - ILLINOIS Extension
Iink to farmdocdaily articleUSDA’s soybean ending stocks forecast of 425 million bushels for the marketing year may show little if any change in the upcoming WASDE report. Despite the recent strength in soybean crush, the current focus is squarely on the impacts of the coronavirus and the implications for both crush and exports as the disease continues to evolve.
University of Illinois ag economist Todd Hubbs discusses the impact coronavirus is and may have on the use of soybeans across the planet.Soybean crush in January saw a record total for the month of 188.78 million bushels. Thus far this marketing year, crush set monthly records in October, December, and January. Even with those monthly records, the crush pace during the first five months of the marketing year, at 897 million bushels, equaled last year’s pace. The USDA’s current projection for crush indicates a 13 million bushel increase over last year. To reach the crush…

A Discussion on Crop Insurance & ARC/PLC with Gary Schnitkey

This is a lengthy discussion with ILLINOIS ag economist Gary Schnitkey detailing the ARC/PLC and Crop Insurance decisions farmers throughout the nation will need to make by March 16, 2020.

March 01 | WILLAg Newsletter

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March 01, 2020

The WILLAg.org All Day Ag Outlook is Tuesday. I'd really like to see you at the Beef House. Buy  your ticket now or just show up. (FYI it is way easier on us if you purchase ahead of time).

You may buy your tickets online today or by calling 800–898–1065 by noon Monday. The $30 ticket price includes Beef House rolls and coffee in the morning and your Beef House Lunch! The doors open at 8am central / 9am eastern Tuesday, March 3, 2020, at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana.

walk-ins are welcome!
Todd Gleason, Farm Broadcaster
ILLINOIS Extension
tgleason@illinois.edu or 217–390–1858



Purchase Tickets Online | $30 Each | Click2Buy
- or call 800-898-1065 by noon Monday
- the ticket price includes Beef House rolls and coffee in the morning and your Beef House Lunch!

Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Beef House
16501 Indiana 63
Covington, Indiana 47932

Registration
9:00am eastern / 8:00am central

Opening Remarks
* Todd E. Gleason, ILLINOIS Extension

The Future of Agriculture
* Stev…

2020 All Day Ag Outlook

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Purchase Tickets Online | $30 Each | Click2Buy
- the ticket price includes Beef House rolls and coffee in the morning and your Beef House Lunch!

Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Beef House
16501 Indiana 63
Covington, Indiana 47932

Registration
9:00am eastern / 8:00am central

Opening Remarks
9:25am eastern / 8:25am central
        • Todd E. Gleason, ILLINOIS Extension

The Future of Agriculture
9:30am eastern / 8:30am central
        • Steve Maulberger, Vice President Crop Risk Services, Inc.

Cash Grain Panel
10:00am eastern / 9:00am central
        • Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
        • Aaron Curtis, MID-CO Commodities
        • Brian Stark, The Andersons
        • Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities

Global Weather
11:00am eastern / 10:00am central
        • Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions

Soybean Panel
11:30am eastern / 10:30am central
        • Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
        • Merrill Crowley, Midwest Market Solutions
        • Ellen Dearden, AgReview
        • Chip N…

Submit Input to NRCS on Easement Rule

The Natural Resources Conservation Service has posted a new Agricultural Conservation Easement Program rule to the Federal Register. The Assistant State Conservationist for Easement Program from Illinois NRCS explains just how easements work and what the new rules offer. Listen to Todd Gleason’s interview with Paula Hingson.USDA NRCS Press ReleaseChampaign, Illinois – USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) seeks public comments on its interim rule for the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). ACEP is USDA’s premier conservation easement program, helping landowners protect working agricultural lands and wetlands. The interim rule – now available on the Federal Register – will be in effect until the final rule is published. These activities will make changes to the program prescribed by the 2018 Farm Bill.“Through easements, agricultural landowners are protecting agricultural lands from development, restoring grazing lands and returning wetlands to their natur…

Gary Schnitkey on the ARC/PLC Decision

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Farmers will be making two government program decisions on or before March 15th. What to do about crop insurance is one of them. The other is to enroll in the updated farm safety net programs.


The 2018 Farm Bill included some changes that require farmer to do a couple of things. First, they'll want to update their yields with FSA, if and only if the current set is higher than those already on record. Second, a decision must be made about which farm safety net to use for the crop harvest last year, and the one that will be harvested this year. Gary Schnitkey from the University of Illinois has some advice, "If you have a farm that is complete Prevent Plant, I think you are going to want to do ARC-IC. One FSA farm. If they are yielding at all, you'll probably lean to PLC for corn, ARC-CO for soybeans and PLC for wheat".

You may learn more about ARC-IC on the farmdoc website. ILLINOIS has developed a set of tools farmers can use to help them make the best possible ARC/P…

Revision of 2020 Corn and Soybean Budgets

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The new trade deals have caused Gary Schnitkey to update the price outlook for the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons. As you’ll hear from Todd Gleason this really didn’t change much in the #ILLINOIS crop budgets for corn or soybeans.

by Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension Agricultural Economist
link to farmdocDaily article

Budgets for 2020 have been revised and are now available on farmdoc. Revised budgets use a corn price of $3.90 per bushel and soybean price of $9.10 per bushel, both of which are an increase in price expectations following what appears to be softening of trade difficulties between China and the U.S. Even at those prices, returns are projected at negative levels for 2020. Before 2020 returns are positive, yields must be well above trend or Market Facilitation Program payments must continue in 2020.

Corn Returns Table 1 shows 2018 actual returns for both corn and soybeans grown on high-productivity farmland in central Illinois. These values are summarized from farms enrolle…

Waiting for the Trade Deal

The highly anticipated release of USDA’s crop production and ending stocks reports last Friday created a somewhat negative tone in corn and soybean markets. Despite the slightly bearish tilt, prices for both commodities closed higher on Friday. The pending phase one trade agreement and South American production prospects look to set the tone for prices over the near term. - Todd Hubbs, ILLINOIS Extension


by Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois
link to original farmdocDaily article

Corn production for the U.S. in 2019 came in at 13.69 billion bushels, up 31 million bushels from the previous forecast on higher national average yields. Average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre is one bushel higher than the previous forecast. The harvested acreage estimate of 81.5 million acres is down from the November forecast of 81.8 million acres. Current production estimates for corn show eight percent of the crop still in the field and open the estimate to possible revision in the future.

December 1 …

Hog Numbers are Up & Profits Should Come

The number of hogs being raised in the U.S. has been going up since mid–2014. However, it isn’t necessarily because profits are great. The last Hogs and Pigs report released by USDA, back in December, was a record-setter at 77 million 338 thousand. That’s three-percent more than year ago. The expansion comes despite unprofitable margins and uncertainties related to trade issues says Jason Franken of Western Illinois University. The fact is there will be more hogs going to market from January to May. One of the reasons, Franken says, is that the litter size has grown on average and is now over 11 piglets per sow, “The continuation of the upward trend in pigs per litter, combined with reported farrowing intentions suggests more hogs going to market in 2020.” Winter farrowing intentions are up 1 percent from actual farrowings last year and 5% from two years ago. The spring farrowing intentions are also up slightly from last year and up 3 percent from 2 years back.All of these numbers poi…