Posts

Showing posts from 2017

What Makes a Top Third Farm

There are just two items that make the difference between a top third farm and an average farm. This University of Illinois study was on a small set in McLean County. This was done to limit the influences of weather and a few other factors. Gary Schnitkey says he wanted to know why some farms made more than others. Turns out, the answer is pretty simple say the ag economist, “What we found were distinct cost differences between the two groups. This was a $45 per acre difference between the average group and the high return group. The $45 came primarily in two items; machinery depreciation and interest cost.”The more profitable farms tended to have lower machinery and non-land interest cost. The two are related. If you buy more machinery, you have more depreciation and likely more interest costs. Other differences included storage costs, with high profit farms storing less at elevators and their cost of hired labor was lower, too. Over all, these farms usually had lower costs, but thes…

Feeding Wheat Co-Products to Pigs

Research from the University of Illinois is helping to determine the quality of protein in wheat middlings and red dog. Both are co-products of the wheat milling process. Each can be fed to pigs and other livestock.There is information about the digestibility of crude protein in some wheat co-products produced in Canada and China, says University of Illinois Animal Scientist Hans Stein, but only very limited information about the nutritional value of wheat middlings and red dog produced in the United States.Stein and U of I researcher Gloria Casas fed wheat middlings from 8 different states and red dog from Iowa to growing pigs. Despite the variety in the wheat middlings sources the concentration of crude protein were generally consistent. However, they did find some variation in the digestibility of the amino acids.The red dog contained slightly less crude protein than wheat middlings. Stein says the results of this study provide guidance to producers who hope to incorporate wheat co…

Check Dicamba Soybeans After Spraying

Image
Farmers are turning to an old technology this year to control weeds in their fields. Here’s what they can expect from a new, old-product.Dicamba has been around for about half-a-century. It is a corn herbicide, but soybeans have been modified to tolerate it. This was done because so many weeds have modified themselves to resist being killed by glyphosate, commonly known as Round-Up. The primary problem, says University of Illinois Extension Weed Scientist Aaron Hager, is waterhemp, “it, has never been excellent on any of the pigweed species. It can be good. It can be very good, but it is not excellent. It is not as consistent.” This inconsistency makes the timing of dicamba applications extremely important. Without a doubt, says Hager, most post applied herbicides are going to do a better job of controlling a full suite of weeds in a field when the weeds are less than three to four inches in size, “Certainly, with something like dicamba and waterhemp, our recommendation to farmers is …

Crop Progress Reports & End of Season Yields

Image
read blog postLast week USDA released its first national corn condition rating of the season. The crop, as you’ll hear, wasn’t in great shape. While it doesn’t mean much at this time of year, there is a relationship between the first crop condition rating and the end of the season yield. The weekly Crop Progress report is mostly the work of Extension and FSA employees, at the least the data collection part. They report local crop conditions to state USDA offices, mostly on Monday morning, who in-turn tally those numbers and pass them along to Washington, D.C. for compilation and release on Monday afternoon. Work at the University of Illinois shows a strong relationship between the end-of-season crop condition ratings and crop yield, however, agricultural economist Scott Irwin says that doesn’t hold so well for the rest of the season, “but, of course, what you really want to know is how soon do they become really predictive of final yields. Our analysis says they become pretty useful a…

Another Rough Income Year for Grain Farmers

Image
It looks like 2017 will be another rough year for grain farmers in the United States. Even in Illinois, where the trend line yield for corn is 200 bushels to the acre and 61 for soybeans, the average income on a 1500 acre grain for this year is just $25,000. That’s not good says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey, “That $25,000 isn’t enough to cover all the family living withdrawals and capital purchase expenses needed for a family farm of this size. Seventy to eighty-thousand dollars is needed to be sustainable in the long run. So, we are looking, again, at some financial deterioration if these projections hold”.
That $25,000 isn’t enough to cover all the family living withdrawals and capital purchase expenses needed for a family farm of this size. Seventy to eighty-thousand dollars is needed to be sustainable in the long run. It is a projection that wasn’t quite so low earlier in the year. Then, like today, Schnitkey was using an average cash sales price …

May 30 | USDA Weekly Crop Progress & Conditions Report

Image

Post-Emergence Herbicides in Corn

Image
read blog postIt is time for farmers to control weeds in their corn fields. However, the cool, wet start to the growing season makes it doubly important to read and follow herbicide labels.The post-emergence herbicide labels they’ll be following usually allow applications to be made at various growth stages says University of Illinois Extension Weed Scientist Aaron Hager. He says it is really important to read the label, making sure to get the height, or the stage, maybe both, of the crop correct.This is because most all of the products for corn have a growth stage listed on the label beyond which applications, at least broadcast applications, should not be made. It is usually either plant height - measured at the highest arch of the uppermost leaf at least 50% out of the whorl - or a leaf number. Hager says if both are listed, then it is important to use the more restrictive of the two, For example, because of some of the weather conditions we’ve had across a large part of the state …

The Last Post & Red Poppies

Adjusting Nitrogen for this Corn Crop

Image
read blog postDespite the wet weather many think may be causing nitrogen fertilizer to get away from corn plants, it is still far too early to make that decision. While it seems likely some nitrogen fertilizer has moved out of the upper soil as a result of rainfall this year University of Illinois Agronomist Emerson Nafziger says if soils dry out, the torrential rains stop, the sun shines, and the weather gets warmer things should be all good, “The crop is going to tell us this. If by the middle of June some of the crop has really greened up nicely and some has not, then we might need to think about those that haven’t and determine if enough nitrogen is missing to cause this to take place. My suspicion is we will not see very much of that at all. If we are warm and dry and with sunshine for a week, I think the crop is going to look good in almost every field.”My suspicion is we will not see very much of that at all. If we are warm and dry and with sunshine for a week, I think the crop…

Trump's Propose Cut to SNAP & Food Insecurity

The White House has released a new budget proposal, and it’s not good news for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Plan, commonly known as food stamps or Link in Illinois. The plan calls for a $193 billion, or 25 percent, cut to the program that currently serves 42 million Americans. Craig Gundersen, professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois, has been studying SNAP and its effects on food insecurity for years.“SNAP is a great program. It is the key component of the social safety net against food insecurity,” Gundersen says.Given the success of SNAP, Gundersen emphasizes that efforts to cut the size of the program will lead to dramatic increases in food insecurity.Food insecurity and SNAP were the topics of a recent podcast and Twitter chat with Gundersen. According to Gundersen, food insecurity is a major contributor to negative health outcomes in the United States. These range from depression and malnutrition to behavioral prob…

Secretary Perdue Shout Out to Land Grants & Extension

Image

Trump Administration Budget Sets Farm Bill Guide Posts

This week the Trump Administration released its FY18 budget. It includes harsh cuts to agricultural entitlement programs. Todd Gleason discusses the plan with University of Illinois Agricultural Policy Specialist Jonathan Coppess.

Crop Progress & June Acreage Could be Really Bearish

Image
There is a rule of thumb for marketing that says “Consider the crop year normal until that is no longer the case.” Yesterday’s USDA Weekly Crop Progress report - despite the rainy weather - tells us the nation’s farmers are on pace this season. They’ve planted 84% of the corn crop and 53% of the soybeans. For University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs this suggests, at a minimum, farmers need to really think about making new crop soybean sales prior to the USDA’s June 30th Acreage Report.Hubbs writes about commodity prices each week for the University of Illinois. Those articles are posted to the farmdocDaily website each Monday.

UPDATED | HRW Condition in Kansas with @KSUWheat

The hard red winter wheat crop in Kansas has been under serious stress this spring. It’s been frozen, covered with snow, drown, and riddled with disease. Still, as Todd Gleason discovers, it may not be as bad off as conditions suggest.

May 10 | USDA WASDE

Image
​​



Yellow Corn Needs Some Heat

Image
Farmer don’t worry too much about a few very young yellow corn plants in their fields. They do get concerned when every plant is yellow. The problem, in this case, isn’t the wet weather says University of Illinois Agronomist Emerson Nafziger.

The Condition of Kansas Wheat | an interview with Romulo Lollato

The Wheat Quality Tour has predicted a very good Kansas crop. However, as you’ll hear, the numbers produced are likely only good for the day they were released. Todd Gleason has more on how the hard red winter wheat crop may deteriorate.

Areas of Above & Below Trend Yields in the Corn-Belt

Image
read farmdocDaily post

Farmers in Illinois and other parts of the eastern corn belt have had above average yields over the last several years. Gary Schnitkey wondered if this was due to the weather or some other reason. He explored the topic and came to three conclusions.



First, yield expectations in the current year likely are more heavily influenced by more recent experience. In those areas where yields have been high, it may be tempting to building financial budgets and expectations on relatively high yields. Doing so could result in higher projections of incomes than are warranted. Farmers in Illinois and other recent high yielding areas should be cautious about building in high yield expectations.

Second, the comparison of above average yields in Illinois and near average yields in Iowa is instructive in understanding whether high yields are caused by technological change. The high yields in Illinois in recent years likely are not a result of technological changes. If technologic…

President Trump Signe Executive Order on Agriculture

Image
EXECUTIVE ORDER

- - - - - - -

PROMOTING AGRICULTURE AND RURAL PROSPERITY IN AMERICA

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, and in order to ensure the informed exercise of regulatory authority that affects agriculture and rural communities, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1.  Policy.  A reliable, safe, and affordable food, fiber, and forestry supply is critical to America's national security, stability, and prosperity.  It is in the national interest to promote American agriculture and protect the rural communities where food, fiber, forestry, and many of our renewable fuels are cultivated.  It is further in the national interest to ensure that regulatory burdens do not unnecessarily encumber agricultural production, harm rural communities, constrain economic growth, hamper job creation, or increase the cost of food for Americans and our customers around the world.

Sec. 2.  Establishment of the Interage…

Tracking Black Cut Worm Moth Flights in Illinois | with Kelly Estes

Image
Todd Gleason talks with Illinois Natural History Survey Entomologist Kelly Estes about insect pests of corn in the state.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue | April 25, 2017

Image
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue addresses USDA employees and guests shortly after being sworn in April 25, 2017.



“We want the public to feel as welcome and as home here (USDA Bldg) as they do in their own home.” - Sonny Perdue

“I view USDA worldwide as a family, and we are going to treat it as a family.” - Sonny Perdue

“I was a farmer first and we are going to get comfortable in working clothes.” Perdue sheds his coat and tie….

“We want to make decisions on facts and evidence. Good sound science.” “We want to be data-driven.” - Sonny Perdue



Evaluating Barley Yellow Dwarf Resistance in Oats

Image
Fred Kolb heads up the small grains breeding program at the University of Illinois. He and his crew were out working on the south farms last week (Wednesday, April 18). They swing specialized tubes to deliver a little corn meal and an aphid that carries Barley Yellow Dwarf disease. The aphid, says Kolb, infects the oats. About a week after the aphids are released, he and his team come back to eradicate them. Fred Kolb is a crop scientist at the University of Illinois.

Cattle | Increase Conception Rates after Lush Spring Turnout

Image
During the winter most cattle are supplemented with dry forages, grains, and co-products. This ration is balanced and delivered to cattle. Then spring comes along and cattle are put out to grass. While green grass solves a lot of problems associated with winter feeding (manure, pen maintenance, calf health, and labor demands), it can pose nutritional challenges, especially for newly bred cows.

>

That lush green grass forage has three major challenges when it comes to meeting cattle nutrition requirements.
it can lack enough dry matterit is high in protein, but the excess can become a problem without the dry matterand it is low in fiber
The beef cattle specialists at the University of Illinois wondered if this combination of problems has taken a hand in some of the lower artificial insemination conception rates they’ve seen in one of the three campus herds. Animal Scientist Dan Shike and Extension Beef Educator Travis Meteer set up an experiment to find out. Low dry matter and excess …

Choosing Nitrogen Rates

read blog post The growing season has started and most corn farmers have already applied nitrogen. It is a very expensive plant food and getting the rate right may mean using a little less.Here’s how the University of Illinois nitrogen recommendation used to work. It was formula equal to roughly one-point-two times the expected yield minus the nitrogen leftover from the previous crop. That “yield-goal-based system” recommends too much for today’s corn hybrids says University of Illinois Extension Agronomist Emerson Nafziger, “That yield-goal-based system flat-out doesn’t work anymore. The reason it doesn’t is that our yields have gone up a lot, and we are clearly showing that yields have gone up more than requirements for nitrogen have gone up.”Nafziger believes there are two reasons for the change. First, he says the system always recommended more nitrogen than was really needed. The other is that hybrids have become much better at extracting what’s there; water and the nutrients tha…

Too Early to Worry About Late Planting

Image
Farmers have been a bit worried about getting into the field because of rains throughout the Midwest. It looks like those will clear out for the week, mostly, and even if they don’t, there isn’t much to worry about, yet. Todd Gleason has more on when the ag economist at the University of Illinois think late planting impacts the markets and yields.

Working to Create New Illini Brand Soybean Varieties

Image
Troy Cary & Lauran Widman (wihd-man) are working to create twelve-thousand 2017 University of Illinois soybean breeding program plots. Todd Gleason caught up with them on Tuesday morning and put together this look at some of the pre-planting season work.YouTube Link

The Frozen Sweet Peas Recall, Listeria, & Pregnant Women

Image
voluntary recall notice
read blog post

Earlier this week (April 11th) frozen sweet peas sold under the Season’s Choice Brand at Aldi stores in seven states (including Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Florida, Wisconsin) were voluntarily recalled.

Listeria is a particularly concerning pathogen that University of Illinois Extension Nutrition and Wellness Educator Mary Liz Wright says should especially be avoided by pregnant women. However, Wright says there are some easy ways to make sure frozen peas are listeria free, "We need to cook those frozen vegetables before we add them to a cold salad. Listeria can be killed at 155 degrees F. So, bringing the peas up to a 155 degrees will kill the listeria and then you can safely chill them and use them in your salad."



The U.S. government reports pregnant women are twenty-percent more likely to contract listeria. It can lead to miscarriage.

Lakeside Foods says the 16 ounce packages of Season’s Choice frozen sweet peas we…

Pork Industry Favored by Strong Demand

Chris Hurt - This is basically a forecast for a breakeven year with all costs being covered, including labor costs and equity investors receiving a normal rate of return.by Chris Hurt, Purdue University Extension farmdocDaily articleHog prices are expected to increase in 2017 even with three percent more pork production. Prices will be supported by stronger demand because of a growing U.S. economy and by a robust eight percent growth in exports as projected by USDA. New packer capacity is also expected to contribute to stronger bids for hogs. Feed costs will be the lowest in a decade and total production costs are expected to be at decade lows.The recently updated USDA inventory report found that the nation’s breeding herd was one percent larger than the herd of a year-ago. This continues a rebuilding of the herd that began in 2014 as feed prices began to move sharply lower and the industry began to recover from pig losses due to PED. The national breeding herd has increased by four p…

Dicamba Soybeans | how to manage herbicide applications

Image
read more from Aaron Hager, University of Illinois Extension

Farmers going to the field this spring will be using a brand new type of soybean. Todd Gleason has more on why dicamba-resistant varieties will require them to exercise caution when making herbicide applications.

farmdocDaily Webinar | USDA March Grain Stocks & Acreage

Image
Darrel Good, Todd Hubbs, Scott Irwin - University of Illinois ACES


by Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

The high March 1 stock numbers provide some bearish sentiment for old crop corn and soybean prices in 2017. The larger than expected soybean stock number may have some implications for the size of the 2016 soybean crop, but the final estimate will not be known until September. The large corn stocks number impact the consumption of corn in the feed and residual category directly during the current marketing year and an expectation of reduced feed and residual use is prudent moving forward. Planting intentions confirmed the belief that farmers would switch to soybean production in 2017.


The large Brazilian soybean crop this year combined with stable demand over the next marketing year gives an indication of lower prices for soybeans next marketing year. The lower corn planting intentions provide some support for corn prices despite the large March 1 stock es…

Corn & Soybean Planting Date Recommendations

Image
by Emerson Nafziger, University of Illinois
see The Bulletin article

Relatively dry weather in recent weeks throughout much of Illinois and an early start to fieldwork might provide the unusual opportunity this year of letting us choose corn and soybean planting dates instead of having to wait until it’s dry enough.

There are reports that some corn and possibly some soybeans were planted as early as February this year. The main motivation for such plantings is often the excitement that comes (or doesn’t) from having the crop survive “against all odds.” While that may be satisfying, it doesn’t offer much profit potential. If the crop survives it hardly ever produces yields as high as those from planting at the normal time, and planting very early affects insurability and can also increase the cost of replant seed.

In the warm, dry March of 2012, we planted one date of our planting date study at Urbana on March 16. The crop emerged uniformly and grew well until frost on April 11–12 kill…

American Soybean Association Message for Congress

The president of the American Soybean Association was in Washington, D.C. Tuesday. Ron Moore, an Illinois farmer - along with his counterparts from many agricultural commodity organizations, testified at a House ag subcommittee hearing. Moore says there are a few items on the top of the farm bill agenda for the ASA.

Corn Prices Moving Forward | an interview with Todd Hubbs

May corn futures’ prices tumbled to the lowest price level since December during the week ending March 24. Large crop estimates from around the world placed downward pressure on the corn market despite some positive domestic consumption numbers in exports and corn used for ethanol. Still, Todd Hubbs from the University of Illinois is hopeful there could be some support left in the corn market over time.read full article on farmdocDaily

The American Robin: Living up to its Superhero Image

Image
by Chris Enroth, University of Illinois Extension

After an exceptionally mild winter, I noted my first robin sighting about three weeks ago. During that initial observation, scores of robins had arrived in my yard. Spring is a time of year when the migratory American robin can be found scouring the earth in search of protein. Sipping on my coffee, wave after wave of robins hopped through the yard, stopping to cock their head, as if listening for worms in the soil below. Scratching and digging through my leaf mulch, these red-breasted thrushes, found quite a feast.



Our American Robin suffers from an unfortunate Latin/scientific name coincidence- Turdus migratorius. Thumbing through various literature, ornithologists with an impeccably matter-of-fact tone describe the origin of Turdus as Latin for “thrush.”

Though my first sighting of a robin was in late February, most likely they’ve been here all winter. According to Douglas Stotz with the Chicago Field Museum, robins are migratory bir…

Historical Planted Acre Changes for Corn and Soybeans | an interview with Gray Schnitkey

Image
Friday, March 31, 2017, USDA will release the Prospective Plantings report. The survey of U.S. farmers will estimate how many acres of corn and soybeans will be sown this spring. University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey talks with Todd Gleason about the historical changes in planted acres.



by Gary Schnitkey
see farmdocDaily post

At its annual Agricultural Outlook Conference in February, USDA projected that planted acres of corn would decrease from 94.0 million acres in 2016 to 90.0 million in 2017, a decrease of 4 million planted acres. At the same time, soybean acres are projected to increase from 83.4 million acres in 2016 to 88.0 million in 2017, an increase of by 4.6 million acres. Herein, we evaluate historical changes in acres across counties, thereby providing perspective on where likely 2017 acreage changes may occur.

U.S. Planted Acres

In 2016, planted acres to corn in the United States was 94.0 million acres (see Figure 1). This acreage level was the thir…

Building Extension 3.0

Kim Kidwell, Dean of the College of ACES - University of IllinoisExtension personnel facilitate the translation of many of the fantastic discoveries made at land-grant universities to people around the world. Oftentimes, this is the only way that this valuable information reaches people so they can make good decisions that improve the qualities of their lives. Kim Kidwell, Dean of the University of Illinois College of ACES, believes Extension embodies the essence of the land-grant mission because this is where transformation happens. She discusses, with Todd Gleason, how the future of Extension in the state of Illinois can provide the basis through which the discovery process can continue to help change people’s lives.Read more from College of ACES Dean Kim Kidwell’s blog post here.

Anticipating the March 1 Soybean Stocks Estimate

USDA, at the end of this month, will let us know how much of the nation’s soybean crop there is left in the bin. It “should” be a fairly uneventful number.by Todd Hubbs
read full farmdocDaily articleOn March 31, the USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report, with estimates of crop inventories as of March 1, and the annual Prospective Plantings report. For soybeans, the stocks estimate is typically overshadowed by the estimate of planting intentions. Usually, the quarterly stocks estimates for corn garners more interest because these reports reveal the pace of feed and residual use which is a large component of total corn consumption. The March 1 soybean stocks estimate this year may not provide much new information despite recent growth in marketing year ending stocks and concerns about the size of the South American crop… continue reading the full article by clicking here.Generally, Todd Hubbs says it is pretty easy to figure out how many soybeans have been consumed. There …

On the Value of Ethanol in the Gasoline Blend

Read farmdocDaily ArticleThere has been much debate and much written about the likely costs and benefits of including ethanol in the domestic gasoline supply. Costs and benefits fall into two major categories–environmental and economic (e.g., Stock, 2015). One economic consideration is the potential impact on domestic gasoline prices from augmenting the gasoline supply with biofuels. A second economic consideration, and one that has received the most attention, is the cost of ethanol relative to petroleum-based fuel. What has been missing from the analysis of the value of ethanol in the gasoline blend is an estimate of the net value of ethanol based on: i) an energy penalty relative to gasoline; and ii) an octane premium based on the lower price of ethanol relative to petroleum sources of octane. This farmdocDaily article provides an analysis of that net value since January 2007.

2016 Corn and Soybean Yields in Perspective

Image
read the full article

The National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) recently released 2016 county yields for both corn and soybeans. In this article, maps are produced showing actual 2016 yields minus 2016 trend yields. Examination of these maps shows areas of above trend and below trend yields for 2016. Areas of above trend yields will have higher 2016 incomes relative to those areas with below trend yields.


Individual county trend yields are calculated using data from 1972 through 2016. A linear line is fit through these yields using ordinary least squares. The 2016 trend yields were based on these linearly fit relationships.

The following maps report actual minus trend yields. By calculating trend yields, the inherent productivity of the farmland is taken into consideration, and actual yields are stated relative to that productivity.






Schnitkey reports those areas with above trend yields will have relatively higher incomes than those areas with below trend yields. In 2016, lo…

Big South American Crops Pressure Price | an interview with Todd Hubbs

by Todd Hubbs
read the full articleCorn and soybean harvest future prices moved sharply lower after the release of the USDA March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on March 9. December corn futures closed on March 10 at $3.87 per bushel, while November soybean futures moved down to close at $10.00 per bushel. Both prices closed at the lowest levels since late January. When combining the production forecasts for South America with projected changes in domestic use, the competition in export markets looks to be particularly tough for the next few months.

Illini Summer Academies Offer College Experience for High Schoolers

Your high schooler can go to college this summer for a few days. Not only that, but they can go to the University of Illinois. Todd Gleason has more on the Illini Summer Academies.Illinois 4-H is proud to offer this hi-fidelity college exploratory experience on the University of Illinois campus. Participants attend academy sessions led by university professors and enjoy a variety of engaging activities that provide a taste of just how cool college life can be. Imagine getting to work alongside university professors while you’re still in HIGH SCHOOL! Imagine getting to hang out on a college campus. Imagine spending five days with kids your age from all across Illinois. That’s what happens at Illini Summer Academies, so stop imagining it and just do it! This program offers teens the opportunity to explore the University of Illinois campus and many degree programs and careers. All academies feature project-based learning where youth are either conducting experiements, making something, o…

Sign Up for 4-H Summer Camp is Open

Sign up is open to everyone for 4-H summer camp in Monticello. As you’ll hear it is a great place to send your kids aged 8–16.

Hog Prices Outperform Expectations

There’s some good news for a change in the pork industry. Todd Gleason has more on the better prices with Purdue Extension Economist Chris Hurt.Pork producers are pleased to see prices higher than earlier expectations.This comes after a really tough year, says Purdue’s Chris Hurt, that bottomed out in November with prices dropping to about $32 for a hundredweight. That’s like paying 32 cents a pound for your pork chop and your bacon - at least at the wholesale price. Now things are way better says the ag economist. Recently live prices have reached the mid-$50 and have pulled the industry out of deep losses into profitability.The leading reason for the better on farm price is actually lower pork prices at the grocery store. The “law of demand” says people will buy more when prices are lower, and retail pork prices… have been lower say Chris Hurt, “Retail pork prices peaked in 2014 because of reduced supplies due to the PED virus and have generally been falling since 2015. In the final…

Trump RFS Rumors Move Commodity Markets

Image
University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Scott Irwin discusses rumors driving the commodity markets Tuesday, February 28, 2017 related to biofuels and the Trump administration with U of I Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason.

Estimated 2016 ARC-CO Payments

Image
by Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

Read Full Article

On February 23rd, the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released county yields for the 2016 crop year. With these yield estimates, fairly accurate estimates of 2016 Agricultural Risk Coverage at the county level (ARC-Co) can be obtained. We present maps showing estimated payments per base acre for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Also shown are maps giving 2016 county yields relative to benchmark yields. A table showing estimated payments per county in Illinois also is presented.



Procedures Payments for 2016 are still estimates and will vary from those presented here for the following reasons:

• Farm Service Agency (FSA) uses different yields than NASS when calculating ARC-CO payments. Where NASS data is available, the NASS yield generally will be higher than those used by FSA. As a result, estimated payments should be viewed as conservative.

• Market Year Average (MYA) prices are not known be…