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Showing posts from 2017

Comparison of 2016 ARC-CO and PLC Payments

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link to full farmdocDaily article

The United States Department of Agriculture will issue farm safety net payments this month. Todd Gleason has more on the payments for this year, and projections for next year with University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey. You may listen to that conversation.



Schnitkey, his University of Illinois colleagues Nick Paulson & Jonathan Coppess, and Ohio State’s Carl Zulauf also explored how the 2016 ARC County payments would compare to those from its counterpart USDA safety net program, PLC. This exploration is a head to head look at how each program performed.

Check the farmdocDaily website for full details at www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu.

The four academics compared PLC and ARC-CO payment levels per base acre in 2016. They looked at corn and wheat and then did a simple calculation for each to illustrate which USDA farm safety net program made the largest payments for 2016. They calculated by county, for the whole of the United Sta…

President Trump's Pennsylvania Tax Reform Speech

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Last night President Donald Trump made a speech about his administration’s tax reform plan. He addressed truckers in Pennsylvania. Mr. Trump told the truckers his tax reforms will create American jobs by lowering taxes in several ways.
So, to summarize, our plan goes from eight tax brackets down to four, expands the zero tax bracket greatly, expands the child tax credit, repeals the estate tax and special interest tax breaks, cuts the corporate tax rate from much more and equal to 35% tax and brings it all the way down to 20%, and cuts tax breaks for small businesses to the lowest level in more than eight years. The President also says it will be possible for most Americans to do their taxes on a single sheet of paper.

The particulars of the reform would double the standard deduction so that $12,000 of income for individuals and $24,000 for married couples would be tax-free. It would consolidate the eight existing tax brackets for income to four brackets: zero, 12 percent, 25 percen…

Calculating N-Rates for Corn | with Emerson Nafziger

University of Illinois Agronomist Emerson Nafziger says deep prairie soils can provide up to one-hundred-pounds of N annually. This makes nitrogen fertilizer applications less limiting than once thought. Todd Gleason talks with Nafziger about how farmers should calculate anhydrous ammonia rates this fall.

Exploring Corn & Soybean Stocks

Last week’s Grain Stocks report should reduce the ending stocks for both corn and soybeans this month.USDA’s quarterly grain stocks estimate suggests there are fewer bushels of corn and soybeans leftover from last year than have been reported so far. University of Illinois Commodity Grain Markets Specialist Todd Hubbs says corn is off by 56 million bushels and soybeans are down 44 million, “I’d say one thing out of the stocks report is the idea that corn and soybean consumption is starting to get stronger as we move through the year. This is especially the case in some areas we didn’t see before like feed. For the soybean ending stocks, USDA adjusted 2016 production. This isn’t a shocker, but it did change the balance sheet.” I’d say one thing out of the stocks report is the idea that corn and soybean consumption is starting to get stronger as we move through the year. This is especially the case in some areas we didn’t see before like feed. Having said that, Hubbs admits the 2016/17 …

Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks Unlikely to Change Corn Market

Friday the United States Department of Agriculture will close out last fall’s harvest and marketing year with the release of the fourth quarter Grain Stocks report. Todd Gleason reports it is not expected to impact the price of corn.

Big Income Years Impact Medicare Premiums 2 years Out

Farmers, business owners, and others on Medicare might find a bigger bill in the mail than expected. Todd Gleason has more on how big income years produce big Medicare premiums two years later.

Margin Protection Insurance | an interview with Gary Schnitkey

Gary Schnitkey assesses the value of Margin Protection Insurance against ARP and RP plans.

Growmark Introduces Simulator to Train Drivers

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We often hear about pilots using simulators to train before they actually fly. As of this year Growmark FS is using a simulator to train its sprayer operators. This month the company invited reporters to its training center in Bloomington, Illinois and after a brief introduction invited them to take a spin in their brand new RoGator. Not a real one, but a simulator that seems pretty darned real even, says Growmark Equipment Manager Erik Wilcox, to those that drive the sprayer for a living. Wilcox - I’ve had a lot of doubting Thomases come in and say, “this is just a video game and not anything worthwhile” and with each and every one of them I challenge them to just get on and give me the feedback. Every one of them, and I mean every one of them and that’s been about a dozen that have gotten on with me as an expert, have come off and said, “yeah, we are headed in the right direction.” The simulator currently features road and field courses. It was created as a training module for FS Sy…

Corn and Soybean Production Outlook in 2017-18

Given the price reaction, the market remains uncertain about the USDA’s September forecast of 2017 corn and soybean production. Todd Gleason has more with the commodity markets specialist from the University of Illinois.

USDA NASS Soybean Objective Yield Pod Weight

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Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production report included a very heavy soybean pod weight. Todd Gleason talks with USDA NASS Chief of the Crops Branch about the weight, how it is calculated, and how it might change over time.







DICAMBA | U of Arkansas Takes a Stand

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Statement from Dr. Mark Cochran, Vice President-Agriculture for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, on Monsanto’s petition to the Arkansas State Plant Board

First, and most importantly, we stand by the integrity of our scientists and their science, including Dr. Jason Norsworthy, our internationally recognized researcher and his work, and all our weed scientists, as well as other public weed scientists on record in other states.

We are confident in the science that we’ve used to advise the regulatory process in Arkansas.
Even Monsanto recognizes his reputation. Just 48 hours before the petition was filed, the company invited Dr. Norsworthy to present a summary of national drift and volatility research at an academic summit on dicamba that the company is hosting in St. Louis this month. He has declined this invitation.

We will examine every point in this petition and its appearing and disappearing group of supporting exhibits, and over time will respond factually…

Storing Corn and Soybeans in 2017

The current price structure of corn and soybean futures markets indicate positive carry in both markets and raises the question of whether producers should make decisions about grain sales. The decision by producers to store corn or soybeans should be determined by the returns to storage.There will be a lot of corn around this fall. USDA projects about sixteen-and-half billion bushels when you add what’s leftover from last year to this year’s harvest. It is projecting about four-point-eight billion bushels of soybeans. That’s a lot of both crops, but University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs isn’t worried about running out of space to store it. In fact, the market is urging farmers to go ahead and store both crops at the moment by pricing futures contracts for later in the year a bit higher than the nearby months. The difference is called the carry says Hubbs. Having said that, he says the carry probably doesn’t pay out for commercial storage like you would see for on-f…

Sep 4 | WILLAg Newsletter

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September 4, 2017

Evidence Favors the South & East Tempering Poorer Corn Belt Yields
  This map shows the August 2017 USDA Crop Production Report state by state corn yields. Rollover each state to reveal the yield. Darker green colors represent higher yields. The table gives more complete detail and breaks down the nation by region. Note the twelve corn belt states in the Midwest are expected to yield 8.4 bushels to the acre less this year than last. The southern states, while representing only about 1.5 billion bushels of the total expected 2017 production of 14.2 billion, show a year over year increase of nearly 14 bushels to the acre.

  USDA will update the Crop Production and WASDE figures Tuesday September 12, 2017. This will be followed at the end of the month by the 4th quarter Grain Stocks report Friday September 29th. Naturally, you can see these numbers shortly after their release on our website at willag.org or by following Todd's twitter account.

Marketing Panels t…

State by State & Regional Corn Yields

This map shows the August 2017 USDA Crop Production Report state by state corn yields. Rollover each state to reveal the yield. Darker green colors represent higher yields. The table gives more complete detail and breaks down the nation by region. Note the twelve corn belt states in the Midwest are expected to yield 8.4 bushels to the acre less this year than last. The southern states, while representing only about 1.5 billion bushels of the total expected 2017 production of 14.2 billion show a year over year increase of nearly 14 bushels to the acre.

Interviews from the Farm Progress Show

How Harvey Will Impact Fuel Supply Infrastructure
Dave Chatterton, Powerline Group - Champaign, IllinoisMonday Todd Gleason spoke with Dave Chatterton at the Powerline Group about how Hurricane Harvey is impacting the nation’s fuel supply infrastructure.Southern States Crop Tour Review
Jeremy Wilson, Crop IMS - Effingham, Illinois The corn crop in the south is good. Very good in fact. Todd Gleason talks with Jeremy Wilson from Crop IMS.Discussing Dicamba Damage with Robb Fraley
Robb Fraley, Monsanto Company - St. Louis, Missouri Doug Maxwell, Crops Researcher - University of IllinoisMonsanto’s Robb Fraley dropped by the University of Illinois tent at the Farm Progress Show to talk about dicamba and soybeans. Todd Gleason has more…Recruiting Higher Ed Ag Students to Illinois UniversitiesRecruiters from Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and the University of Illinois are planning to work together to keep more agricultural students in state. Todd Gleason discussed the …

Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour

Owned & Share Cropped Land Making up Cash Rent Losses

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The high price of cash rent for corn ground in Illinois has been a loser over the last three seasons. It looks like that may continue for two more years. Todd Gleason has more on how owned ground, and share cropped acres have been making up the difference.





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Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

Assessing the Prospects for 2017 Corn Production

The August Crop Production report surprised many market observers by forecasting 2017 corn production at 14.153 billion bushels. In particular, the corn yield forecast of 169.5 bushels per acre came under scrutiny due to higher than expected yield forecasts in major producing states. The question is whether the corn production forecast will change enough to result in higher prices than those currently reflected the market.



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CME Group Provides Scholarships for Agriculture

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Agricultural companies are always on the hunt for good employees, but those with college educations can be hard to find. Todd Gleason reports from the Illinois State Fair that the world’s largest options and futures exchange is hoping to inspire a few more kids to further their education.

NAFTA Negotiations Start Wednesday

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Trade negotiators from Mexico and Canada will gather in Washington, D.C. this week to update NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement. Todd Gleason has more…

Google & 4-H Working Together on STEM

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Google & 4-H Working Together on STEM
Rob Biederman, Head of External Affairs Midwest - Google
Jennifer Sirangelo, President & CEO National 4-H CouncilGoogle made a big splash on the Illinois State Fairgrounds this past week when it and the National 4-H Council announced a computer science collaboration. Todd Gleason has more on the $1.5 million gift and how it will be used to create STEM programming for kids.

Google Makes $1.5 Million Gift to 4-H

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Google, through its philanthropic arm, has made a $1.5 million gift to 4-H across the nation. The company is providing both funding support and virtual reality equipment to 4-H youth computer science programs. It made the announcement at the Illinois State Fair Friday, August 11, 2017.

Todd Hubbs Review August Crop Reports

Excerpt from August USDA Crop Production report.Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 7 percent from last year. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 169.5 bushels per acre, down 5.1 bushels from 2016. If realized, this will be the third highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.5 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but down 4 percent from 2016.Soybean production is forecast at 4.38 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 49.4 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record high 88.7 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but up 7 percent from 2016. Planted area for the Nation is estimated at a record high 89.5 million acres, also unchanged from June.All wheat production, at 1.74 billion bushels, is down 1 percent from the J…

How USDA Collects Yield Data

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How USDA NASS Gathers Crop Production Report Data

USDA NASS will release the first corn and soybean Crop Production Report of the season Thursday August 10th, 2017 at 11am central. Todd Gleason talks with USDA NASS State Statistician Mark Schleusener (shloy-seh-ner) about how the information is collected and calculated.



USDA Crop Production Reports | a primer with Scott Irwin

A year ago University of Illinois agricultural economist Scott Irwin and Darrel Good wrote an article about how USDA predicts corn yields for the farmdocDaily website. Todd reviews this article with Scott Irwin as a primer to the August Crop Production report.

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Opening Up the Black Box

We have written extensively about U.S. corn yield forecasts issued by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the USDA (Irwin and Good, 2006; Irwin and Good, 2011; Irwin, Sanders and Good, 2014; farmdoc daily, August 28, 2013; August 29, 2014; August 18, 2016). As indicated in these previous publications, …

Assessing the Pulse of the Next Farm Bill Debate with Carl Zulauf

read blog postThirteen agricultural economists put together short papers describing issues that will surface during the writing of the next farm bill. For each issue, the author describes the “policy setting” and details “farm bill issues” that likely will arise during negotiations. Each issue then has a “what to watch for” summary. These papers, along with an overview, are presented in an article posted to the farmdocDaily website.

How USDA NASS Gathers Crop Production Report Data

USDA NASS will release the first corn and soybean Crop Production Report of the season Thursday, August 10th, 2017. Todd Gleason talks with USDA NASS State Statistician Mark Schleusener about how the information is collected and calculated.

Extrapolating Yields from USDA's Crop Conditions

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It’s about this time of year that USDA’s Crop Condition reports can be used, in part, to develop corn and soybean yields.

The agricultural economists at the University of Illinois have been tweaking yields out of the USDA crop conditions reports for quite some time. They say the later in the season it gets the more accurate they become. Right about now is usually when the good to excellent ratings, along with all the rest, begin to zero in on what’s really happening across America says Darrel Good, "We do know that the initial ratings for both crops are generally a bit on the high side. That is crops always look good early in the season before weather has had its chance to take a toll on the crop. And then on average ratings decline as you go to the final report of the year. If you recognized that bias, and correct the weekly observations for that bias the in-season ratings can be very useful because there is a very high correlation between final ratings and yields."

Typica…

EPA Must Make Good Lost Biofuels Gallons

The courts have ruled in favor of biofuels made from corn and soybeans.

The U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for Washington, D.C. under took a case to define the meaning of three words in the Renewable Fuel Standard written by the United States Congress. The three words, a phrase, are “inadequate domestic supply”. Congress through them says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Scott Irwin granted the Environmental Protection Agency, the EPA, the right to grant a waiver allowing energy producers not to follow the law, “Which commonsense would say, yes, you need that kind of escape clause in the statute that would say if a biofuel is not being produced you cannot require someone to consume it.”

The Obama Administration’s EPA interpreted the clause to also mean inadequate domestic demand, and consequently limited the mandated use of biofuels in the United States. The court ruled on how the EPA limited biofuels in 2016, however, it may be, thinks Irwin, that EPA will need to make g…

Jul 24 |USDA Crop Progress Graphics

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CORN




SOYBEAN

A Weather Market & Corn Yields

Each day the weather changes and just as often, it seems, so has the direction of corn prices. Todd Hubbs from the University of Illinois was of the opinion a couple of weeks ago that corn market had a some upside potential. It did, but now, maybe it doesn’t. This has him thinking about the number of acres of corn in the United States, the impact of the weather on yield, and how the market might react August 10th when the United States Department of Agriculture releases the first corn crop production report of the season, "We talk about increased corn acreage and maybe a yield loss below trend. Is that seven bushels to the acre, five bushels, or two bushels. It is really hard at this point to say, but I am looking at, out of my little model, 168 bushel national yield. Still it is hard to say what USDA is going to put out on August 10th. Hubbs says he is looking forward to seeing what they say about yields. If the market is pricing in 164/165 bushels to the acre for yield corn and…

Soybeans More Profitable than Corn

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Soybeans have been more profitable than corn over the last three years, and an ILLINOIS agricultural economist expects that to continue to be the case this year and next.



Gary Schnitkey has updated crop budgets for highly productive central Illinois farmland. It shows, as was the case in 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016, that planting soybeans will make farmers more money than planting corn this year and in 2018. The cash price of corn will need to exceed $4.00 a bushel if that is to change, at least with soybeans in the high $9.00 a bushel range. Schnitkey in his farmdocDaily article, you can find that online, says there are four points to be aware of as it relates to the 2017 and 18 crop budgets.
first, these can change as expected yields and price evolvesecond, repeating this, corn needs to be above four bucks if it is to really competethird, total returns from highly productive central Illinois soils won’t be as much this year as in 2014, 15, or 16.fourth and finally - c…

Barley, Beer, Budweiser

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Corn Belt Crop Tour 2017 | July 18-22

...hints!

* hit the square in the upper right corner of the map to take it full screen.
* you may see photos/video by clicking on the blue pins.
* click the photos/video to make them bigger/play.
* come back often as photos/video will be added over time.

If you'd like to contribute a photo and commentary please email tgleason@illinois.edu. Send the photo, nearest town, county, and state location. Also, include a couple of sentences about planting date and conditions.




2018 EPA RFS Still a Biofuel Push

by Scott Irwin & Darrel Good, Agricultural Economists
University of Illinois
read full blog postImplicationsWe analyzed the magnitude of the “push” in production and consumption of biofuels implied by the proposed rulemaking for the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) for 2018 released last week. We find that the proposed standard for 2018 implies a measurable push in the consumption of conventional ethanol since the mandate exceeds expected domestic consumption. The magnitude of that gap is estimated at 640 million gallons for 2018, compared to the estimate for a record large gap in 2017 of 738 million gallons. The gap ranged from 260 to 457 million gallons in 2014–2016. The advanced biofuels mandate is estimated at 684 million gallons in 2018, compared to the estimate of 900 million gallons in 2017 and the actual gap of 438 million gallons in 2016. Our analysis of the proposed rulemaking for 2018 implies:(1) The EPA under the new Administration is “staying the course” on the implied c…

USDA June 30 Acreage & Grain Stocks Reports

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download presentation (pdf)

USDA Acreage Report


USDA Grain Stocks



University of Illinois Updated Supply & Demand Tables