Fun Turkey Facts

Ben Franklin, in a letter to his daughter, proposed the turkey as the official United States bird.

In 2012, the average American ate 16 pounds of turkey.

The heaviest turkey ever raised was 86 pounds, about the size of a large dog.

A 15 pound turkey usually has about 70 percent white meat and 30 percent dark meat.

The male turkey is called a tom.

The female turkey is called a hen.

The turkey was domesticated in Mexico and brought to Europe in the 16th century.

Wild turkeys can fly for short distances up to 55 miles per hour.

Wild turkeys can run 20 miles per hour.

Turkeys’ heads change colors when they become excited.

Most of the turkeys raised for commercial production are White Hollands.

It takes 75–80 pounds of feed to raise a 30 pound tom turkey.

A domesticated male turkey can reach a weight of 30 pounds within 18 weeks after hatching.

Forty-five million turkeys are eaten each Thanksgiving.

Twenty-two million turkeys are eaten each Christmas.

Nineteen million turkeys are eaten each Easter.

Male turkeys gobble. Hens do not. They make a clicking noise.

Turkeys have heart attacks. The United States Air Force was doing test runs and breaking the sound barrier. Nearby turkeys dropped dead with heart attacks.

The five most popular ways to serve leftover turkey is as a sandwich, stew, chili or soup, casseroles, or as a burger.

Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices and Costs Lower for 2018 | Interview

Nitrogen fertilizer prices are averaging lower now than in any time since September 2008. These lower prices could translate into roughly a $10 per acre saving in nitrogen fertilizer for the coming 2018 production year. Further savings may be possible for those farms who are applying above recommended nitrogen rates and are willing to cut fertilizer application rates. University recommendations suggest nitrogen application rates well below 200 pounds in northern and central Illinois.

Todd Gleason talked with University of Illinois agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey about his farmdocDaily article.

Average anhydrous ammonia prices in Illinois are reported approximately twice a month in the Illinois Production Cost Report, a publication of the Agricultural Marketing Service, an agency of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In the November 10th report, the anhydrous ammonia price was reported at an average of $405 per ton, with an offer range from $343 per ton up to $440 per ton. Anhydrous ammonia prices have averaged $404 per ton during the months of September, October, and November of 2017.



The $404 per ton average in 2017 is considerably lower than fall prices in recent years. AMS has been reporting anhydrous ammonia prices since 2008 (see Figure 1). This year’s $404 per ton price is the lowest fall price since reporting began in 2008.



Farmers can leverage this lower price even more by using the MRTN to optimize yield. The online N-Rate Calculator is the work of seven corn state Land Grant universities. The calculator uses the prices of nitrogen and corn to optimize yield for the highest revenue. This is different than maximizing yield. It seeks to maximize dollars.

Through the lower cost of nitrogen and use of the N-Rate Calculator northern and central Illinois farmers may save approximately $10 per acre writes Gary Schnitkey on farmdocDaily.

Weather-related decision permits trucks hauling ag commodities to exceed gross vehicle weight limits, speed crop transportation

YORKVILLE (Nov. 5, 2017) — Gov. Bruce Rauner today declared a statewide harvest emergency to assist farmers and grain handlers who are grappling with the fallout of rain-related delays.

“Illinois is home to 72,000 farms on 26.7 million acres. We are among the top three corn producers in the nation,” Rauner said while visiting Stewart Farms in Yorkville Sunday afternoon. “Moving corn and other crops in a timely and efficient manner affects the bottom line of hard-working farmers. This declaration is an appropriate response to an urgent need.”

Under a new law Rauner signed Aug. 11, the declaration permits drivers of trucks carrying agricultural commodities over state highways to obtain a free permit to exceed gross vehicle weight limits by 10 percent. Further, local authorities may waive the permit requirement at their discretion. The emergency declaration is in effect for 45 days beginning today, Nov. 5.

The Illinois Department of Transportation already is mobilizing the permitting process and notifying law enforcement agencies throughout the state. More information is available at https://truckpermits.dot.illinois.gov/.

“I would like to thank the governor for making this declaration today,” said Richard Guebert Jr., president of the Illinois Farm Bureau. “This harvest season emergency declaration will improve the transportation of our crops.”

According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Illinois corn harvest at the end of October was 17 percentage points behind the prior year and 11 percentage points behind the five-year average. The corn harvests in the Northwest, Northeast and East regions are especially hard hit. Harvesters of a variety of crops made up ground toward the end of October, but early delays still are causing backups in the transportation chain.

Jeff Adkisson, executive vice president of the Grain and Feed Association of Illinois, also praised the governor’s action, noting that a bumper crop combined with the harvest delays to compound the situation.

“In years when harvest is better than anticipated, crops like corn and soybeans may need to be stored in piles outside of the traditional concrete or steel bins or tanks,” he said. “This declaration will allow grain elevators to transport commodities out of their facilities quicker, thus making room for grain stored on the ground to be moved to more suitable storage structures.”

Illinois Department of Agriculture Director Raymond Poe said the action will encourage the farming community.

“Illinois farmers work tirelessly year-round, even more so around harvest,” he said. “The Department of Agriculture would like to thank Gov. Rauner for making this declaration and for his support of Illinois farmers.”

And state legislators also welcomed the harvest emergency declaration.
State Rep. Toni McCombie, R-Savanna, co-sponsored HB 2580, which amended the state vehicle code to allow for exceeding trucks’ gross weight limits when a governor declares a harvest emergency.

“Mother Nature has presented Illinois farmers with a rainy spring and fall, making this year’s harvest challenging,” she said. “The State of Illinois was proactive when we foresaw an emergency this year.”

“Farmers form the backbone of our state’s economy,” said state Sen. Neil Anderson, a Republican from Andalusia who sponsored the legislation in the Senate. “Declaring a harvest emergency will reduce red tape and allow those farmers who are still in the field to focus on getting their crops in before winter really takes hold.

“The sooner farmers can get their commodities to market, the more stable the market will be for the consumer.”

State Rep. Dan Swanson, R-Alpha, a member of the House Agriculture and Conservation Committee, said the rainy planting season caused corn and beans to mature later this fall.

“As a result, many farmers are behind in getting their crops harvested,” he said. “With this declaration of a harvest emergency, we will allow farmers the ability to get more grain to the storage sites quicker.”

More Money Raising Soybeans

For four years in a row farmers in Illinois, other parts of the nation too, have made more money on soybeans than corn.



The numbers are pretty clear and University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey lays them out in an online farmdocDaily article. He says, on average, soybeans have been more profitable than corn since 2013, “One of the things we’ve seen is that soybean prices, when compared to corn, have been relatively strong since 2013. The ration of soybean to corn prices has been 2.74 since 2013, and it was 2.42 before that. So, we’ve seen soybean prices increase relative to corn prices.”

Farmers have responded to the higher soybean price.

When you look at historic price ratio changes, it is relatively easy to see when demand has pushed one crop over the other. The corn-based ethanol build up, for instance, from 2006 to 2013 has a soybean-to-corn price ratio of 2.42… that means the price of soybeans is 2.42 times greater than the price of corn.



Ethanol plants were being built around the United States at this time, and there was a big need for more bushels of corn. Farmers responded and planted more corn. That need has now leveled off at the same time China has been continually increasing its need for soybeans. Today the soybean-to-corn ratio is 2.72.

This ratio continually changes says Schnitkey, “We’ve seen soybean and corn have roughly the same revenue. That happened in the late 1980’s. So, it has happened in the past, and I think we are going to see the soybeans to be at least as profitable as corn for the foreseeable future. This is driven by strong demand for soybean exports. We have this growing demand for exports of soybeans. As long as that demand is there, we will continue to try and pull acres into soybeans.”

Just as an FYI, the long-term soybean-to-corn ratio, 1972 to present, is 2.55.

How Many U.S. Soybean Acres Needed in 2018

Listen to Todd Gleason’s full interview with U of I’s Todd Hubbs

read farmdocDaily post

Farmers in the United States have been planting more and more acres to soybeans. There is a simple reason behind this increase. Soybeans have been more profitable than other crops over the last several years. The question now is how many acres will they plant next year. University of Illinois Commodity Markets Specialist Todd Hubbs has been thinking about that one and he decided to determine how many acres are needed if the stocks-to-use ratio was to stay at about 7%.

Hubbs says that number should provide a $9.50 season’s average cash price, “If we assume seven-percent stocks-to-use in 2018/2019 would give us $9.50, which would cover the cost of production in Illinois based on current projections, how many acres of soybeans national under those assumptions would we need given a trend yield? Based on a trend yield of about 46.8 bushels to the acre, and it may be higher than that in 2018, we would need about 88.4 million harvested acres to get $9.50 based on a seven-percent stocks-to-use.”

If you use USDA’s long-term trend line yield for next year, 48.4 bushels to the acre, then the harvested acreage number must drop to about 85.4 million in order to get to the $9.50 season’s average cash price. That’s 86.2 million acres planted to soybeans in the United States next spring.

Farmers Desires for Enterprise Units Use Across County Lines

In a survey conducted by the Illinois Corn Growers Association, farmers with land in different counties indicated a willingness to combine insurance units across counties. Todd Gleason has more on the results with University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey.

Soybean Acreage in 2018 | an interview with Todd Hubbs

The market is currently sending a signal of maintaining the record high soybean acreage of 2017, but the necessity for that level of soybean acreage in 2018 could deteriorate quickly under evolving market conditions. Todd Gleason has more with University of Illinois Commodity Markets Specialist Todd Hubbs.

Calculating N-Rates for Corn | with Emerson Nafziger

University of Illinois Agronomist Emerson Nafziger says deep prairie soils can provide up to one-hundred-pounds of N annually. This makes nitrogen fertilizer applications less limiting than once thought. Todd Gleason talks with Nafziger about how farmers should calculate anhydrous ammonia rates this fall.



Timing Fall Nitrogen
by Emerson Nafziger, Extension Agronomist - University of Illinois
original blog post

The substantial rain that fell over central and northern Illinois between October 5 and 15 mostly soaked into the soil that was dried out by crop water use, and harvest has moved back to full speed in most areas. With harvest, thoughts turn to application of fall ammonia in central and northern Illinois. Almost everyone is on board with waiting until soil temperatures are at or below 50 degrees before applying ammonia. Cool soil (along with use of nitrification inhibitor) lowers the rate of nitrification, so helps preserve N in the ammonium form. Nitrogen present in the soil as ammonium is safe from loss.

Once air and soil temperatures start to decline in October, it’s natural to anticipate that soil temperatures will reach 50 soon, so some are inclined to start to apply before soil temperatures reach 50 degrees. But if we apply when soil is at 60 degrees and soil temperatures fail to drop quickly, or if they rise again after application, nitrification will continue and will persist as long as soils stay warmer. In fact, nitrification does not stop dead at 50 degrees; as a biological process, its rate drops off as temperature falls, but temperatures need to near freezing for nitrification to stop completely.

So we need to wait to apply fall ammonia not only until soil temperatures are 50 or less, but until we have reasonable confidence that they’ll stay there. In Illinois, we normally consider November 1 to be the date at which we can be reasonably sure that soil temperatures won’t rise again until the next spring. That’s not a sure thing, however – in both of the past two years, soil temperatures have gone above 50 at least once between November and February. But most years it’s a reasonable starting date to balance keeping N safe with getting fall application done.

Minimum air temperatures have fallen into the 40s this past week, which has people wondering if it might be OK to go ahead and start applying now. Minimum soil temperatures 4 inches deep under bare soil (from the Illinois Water Survey http://www.isws.illinois.edu/warm/soil) have dropped to the upper 40s to low 50s over much of the state each day between October 16 and 18 this week. The problem with using only the minimum soil temperature is that it doesn’t represent the actual soil temperature in the ammonia application zone. As Figure 1 shows, minimum soil temperatures (on clear days) are typically five degrees or so less than average soil temperatures for the day. So even though we may need a jacket on cool mornings this week, ammonia applied now is not going to be in soils with temperatures less than 50 degrees for some days or weeks.


Figure 1. Soil temperature at 4 inches under bare soil at three Illinois Climate Network sites on October 17, 2017. Source: Illinois State Water Survey.

Air temperatures are forecast to stay in the 70s the rest of this week, to fall into the 50s (with lows in the mid to upper 30s) next week, then to rise again (with dry weather) for some period after that. We’re already past the average first frost date for central and northern Illinois, and even with more seasonal temperatures coming the last week of October, it doesn’t look like ammonia applied now will be as safe from nitrification and possible loss as will ammonia applied in November.

If the soil is in condition to apply ammonia, soil temperatures are in the upper 40s, and the 10-day forecast doesn’t show above-normal temperatures settling in, the last few days of October might offer an opportunity to start applying ammonia. But what if early November is warmer than normal, and soil temperatures remain above 50? Delaying application, of course, moves us closer to having safer soil temperatures.

Average Illinois fall temperatures have been trending slowly upward for some decades now, and as we have seen the last few years, waiting until November 1 does not assure low soil temperatures as consistently as it did in the past. So if a stretch of warm weather is still in the forecast at the end of October, it might make sense to wait a little longer. Otherwise, patience in waiting another 10 days will likely be rewarded, even if – as is often be the case when doing the right thing – the reward isn’t very visible.

Comparison of 2016 ARC-CO and PLC Payments

link to full farmdocDaily article

The United States Department of Agriculture will issue farm safety net payments this month. Todd Gleason has more on the payments for this year, and projections for next year with University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey. You may listen to that conversation.



Schnitkey, his University of Illinois colleagues Nick Paulson & Jonathan Coppess, and Ohio State’s Carl Zulauf also explored how the 2016 ARC County payments would compare to those from its counterpart USDA safety net program, PLC. This exploration is a head to head look at how each program performed.

Check the farmdocDaily website for full details at www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu.

The four academics compared PLC and ARC-CO payment levels per base acre in 2016. They looked at corn and wheat and then did a simple calculation for each to illustrate which USDA farm safety net program made the largest payments for 2016. They calculated by county, for the whole of the United States, the average county-wide ARC payment and then subtracted from it the calculated average county-wide PLC payment. The differences where mapped.

2016 Corn Payments | ARC-CO minus PLC

For corn, it shows ARC-CO payments per base acre exceed those from PLC in most of the counties in the western, Great Plains, and southeastern regions of the US. In more than 60% of counties where the ARC and PLC programs are available for corn base, the ARC-CO payment is at least $10 per base acre larger than the average PLC payment. The ARC-CO payment per base acre is more than $20 larger than the average PLC payment per base acre in more than 50% of counties.

The exception to this is in the Midwest. Many counties in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and North Dakota would receive larger payments from PLC for the 2016 corn crop. Despite low prices, high yields in this region had an offsetting effect on ARC-CO payments. Average PLC payments exceed ARC-CO payments for corn by more than $10 per base acre in 27% of counties across the United States, and by more than $20 per base acre in 17% of counties. Most of those counties are in the corn belt.

This is not an unexpected outcome as ARC was projected to make much larger payments in the first years of the program, and then to taper off with PLC expected to make larger payments in the closing years of the current farm bill. It did this more evenly across the United States for the 2016 wheat base.

The vast majority of counties trigger larger PLC payments per base acre for 2016 wheat. The average PLC payment is more than $10 larger than the ARC-CO payment in nearly 92% of counties with ARC and PLC programs for wheat base. The average PLC payment is more than $20 per base acre larger than the ARC-CO payment in more than 57% of the counties. This large payment difference of more than $20 per base acre captures the main wheat producing areas of the country.

2016 Wheat Payments | ARC-CO minus PLC

Again, while low wheat prices had the effect of triggering PLC and ARC-CO payments, most wheat producing areas experienced high yield levels, offsetting the price effect for ARC-CO payments. Less than 1% of counties triggered an ARC-CO payment per wheat base acre larger than the average PLC payment.

In summary, the farmdoc team finds low commodity price levels led to PLC payments being triggered for a number of program crops in 2016, including corn and wheat. Their models show the size of PLC payments per base acre vary regionally by the size of PLC program yields for those crops, with larger payments being triggered in areas with larger program yields. This includes the Midwest region for corn, and the Midwest, Great Plains, and Western regions for wheat.

President Trump's Pennsylvania Tax Reform Speech

Last night President Donald Trump made a speech about his administration’s tax reform plan. He addressed truckers in Pennsylvania. Mr. Trump told the truckers his tax reforms will create American jobs by lowering taxes in several ways.

So, to summarize, our plan goes from eight tax brackets down to four, expands the zero tax bracket greatly, expands the child tax credit, repeals the estate tax and special interest tax breaks, cuts the corporate tax rate from much more and equal to 35% tax and brings it all the way down to 20%, and cuts tax breaks for small businesses to the lowest level in more than eight years.

The President also says it will be possible for most Americans to do their taxes on a single sheet of paper.

The particulars of the reform would double the standard deduction so that $12,000 of income for individuals and $24,000 for married couples would be tax-free. It would consolidate the eight existing tax brackets for income to four brackets: zero, 12 percent, 25 percent, and 35 percent. The Child Tax Credit would expand to benefit more middle-income families and eliminate the marriage penalty, although how this will happen isn't outlined. Finally, the reform would create a new $500 tax credit for those caring for an adult dependent.

The President last night also mentioned something not in the official release. It’s unclear if this is related to the Bonus Depreciation tax break, but that’s rather how it sounds.

And that is part of our plan because, companies in order to compete, over the next five-year period in our framework, and within our framework, that you right off 100% of the cost of new equipment in the year you buy it. When have you heard that one? That’s going to be a big one. That’s going to be big.

Bonus Depreciation currently allows businesses of all sizes to depreciate 50 percent of the cost of new equipment acquired and put in service during 2017. It also allows the same deduction for some improvement to non-residential real-estate. It is scheduled to phase down to 40 percent in 2018 and 30 percent in 2019. This particular tax break is targeted to large businesses.

Farmers generally use the related Section 179 Deduction which also accounts for the purchase of used equipment and caps the dollar amount rather than using a percentage.

The President's proposal could seek to replace both by combining them into a single deduction which would sunset in five years.

Exploring Corn & Soybean Stocks

Last week’s Grain Stocks report should reduce the ending stocks for both corn and soybeans this month.

USDA’s quarterly grain stocks estimate suggests there are fewer bushels of corn and soybeans leftover from last year than have been reported so far. University of Illinois Commodity Grain Markets Specialist Todd Hubbs says corn is off by 56 million bushels and soybeans are down 44 million, “I’d say one thing out of the stocks report is the idea that corn and soybean consumption is starting to get stronger as we move through the year. This is especially the case in some areas we didn’t see before like feed. For the soybean ending stocks, USDA adjusted 2016 production. This isn’t a shocker, but it did change the balance sheet.”

I’d say one thing out of the stocks report is the idea that corn and soybean consumption is starting to get stronger as we move through the year. This is especially the case in some areas we didn’t see before like feed.

Having said that, Hubbs admits the 2016/17 projected carryouts for corn and soybeans remain very large. It’s possible to roll forward the September grain stocks report to forward figure the October USDA Supply & Demand table… or at least some of the adjustment. When you do that it shows corn carry out at 2.295 billion bushels and soybean ending stocks at 301 million. It is a matter then, says, Hubbs, of laying off the heavy supply-side against growing consumption - which for the moment is hampered by low river water levels that have been causing transportation problems to the Gulf of Mexico. Hubbs says, “The strong demand, the strong consumption, that we’ve been seeing is a good sign as we move through the next marketing year if we can keep it up. Right now we are suffering under these supply and transportation issues.”

It’s not to say a bullish market is around the corner, but that demand should provide a series of marketing opportunities over the coming months.

Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks Unlikely to Change Corn Market

Friday the United States Department of Agriculture will close out last fall’s harvest and marketing year with the release of the fourth quarter Grain Stocks report. Todd Gleason reports it is not expected to impact the price of corn.

Big Income Years Impact Medicare Premiums 2 years Out

Farmers, business owners, and others on Medicare might find a bigger bill in the mail than expected. Todd Gleason has more on how big income years produce big Medicare premiums two years later.

Margin Protection Insurance | an interview with Gary Schnitkey

Gary Schnitkey assesses the value of Margin Protection Insurance against ARP and RP plans.

Growmark Introduces Simulator to Train Drivers

We often hear about pilots using simulators to train before they actually fly. As of this year Growmark FS is using a simulator to train its sprayer operators.

This month the company invited reporters to its training center in Bloomington, Illinois and after a brief introduction invited them to take a spin in their brand new RoGator. Not a real one, but a simulator that seems pretty darned real even, says Growmark Equipment Manager Erik Wilcox, to those that drive the sprayer for a living.

Wilcox - I’ve had a lot of doubting Thomases come in and say, “this is just a video game and not anything worthwhile” and with each and every one of them I challenge them to just get on and give me the feedback. Every one of them, and I mean every one of them and that’s been about a dozen that have gotten on with me as an expert, have come off and said, “yeah, we are headed in the right direction.”

The simulator currently features road and field courses. It was created as a training module for FS System operators from Ontario to Cairo to practice, study, and enhance their ability, knowledge, and safety skills. That and to cut down on accidents.

Wilcox - We’d like to see the instance of insurance claims say running over crops, we’ll use that as an example, decrease over time as we use this. That is as we get into more row crop simulations. We’d also like to see a decrease in on the road accidents.

The most common of which by the way is for a car to run into the back of the sprayer when it goes to make a left hand turn.

Corn and Soybean Production Outlook in 2017-18

Given the price reaction, the market remains uncertain about the USDA’s September forecast of 2017 corn and soybean production. Todd Gleason has more with the commodity markets specialist from the University of Illinois.

USDA NASS Soybean Objective Yield Pod Weight

Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production report included a very heavy soybean pod weight. Todd Gleason talks with USDA NASS Chief of the Crops Branch about the weight, how it is calculated, and how it might change over time.

DICAMBA | U of Arkansas Takes a Stand

Statement from Dr. Mark Cochran, Vice President-Agriculture for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, on Monsanto’s petition to the Arkansas State Plant Board

First, and most importantly, we stand by the integrity of our scientists and their science, including Dr. Jason Norsworthy, our internationally recognized researcher and his work, and all our weed scientists, as well as other public weed scientists on record in other states.

We are confident in the science that we’ve used to advise the regulatory process in Arkansas.
Even Monsanto recognizes his reputation. Just 48 hours before the petition was filed, the company invited Dr. Norsworthy to present a summary of national drift and volatility research at an academic summit on dicamba that the company is hosting in St. Louis this month. He has declined this invitation.

We will examine every point in this petition and its appearing and disappearing group of supporting exhibits, and over time will respond factually to its major points.

There are several points in the petition we need to address immediately: First, Norsworthy’s findings are anything but an outlier. It is consistent with research work in other states, including that of Kevin Bradley in Missouri, Tom Mueller and Larry Steckel in Tennessee, and elsewhere.

Second, none of our researchers has ever endorsed any product, but sometimes companies use our public comments and statements without our permission.

Based on Monsanto’s allegations, we intend, under the terms of our agreements with Monsanto, to publish all data relevant to our dicamba work over the last few years.

This petition isn’t just about a single herbicide, but it’s an attack on a whole profession – scientists whose careful work is meant to be of benefit to all.

We have made our explanations available to the public, including at field days and through videos of the presentations that were and are still public on the Cooperative Extension Service site, www.uaex.edu. Our public land grant research results are scientifically vetted and valid, and we are pledged to being transparent in our results.

Link to Dicamba in Arkansas - Research and FAQs

Storing Corn and Soybeans in 2017

The current price structure of corn and soybean futures markets indicate positive carry in both markets and raises the question of whether producers should make decisions about grain sales. The decision by producers to store corn or soybeans should be determined by the returns to storage.

There will be a lot of corn around this fall. USDA projects about sixteen-and-half billion bushels when you add what’s leftover from last year to this year’s harvest. It is projecting about four-point-eight billion bushels of soybeans. That’s a lot of both crops, but University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs isn’t worried about running out of space to store it. In fact, the market is urging farmers to go ahead and store both crops at the moment by pricing futures contracts for later in the year a bit higher than the nearby months. The difference is called the carry says Hubbs. Having said that, he says the carry probably doesn’t pay out for commercial storage like you would see for on-farm storage, but there is a nice carry in the market for both crops.

The carry probably doesn’t pay out for commercial storage like you would see for on-farm storage, but there is a nice carry in the market for both crops. - Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois

Harvest bids says Hubbs for corn and soybeans possess a weak basis. This means the difference between the futures price in Chicago and the local cash prices across the nation are generally wider than normal. In central Illinois, for example, that bid is about 7 cents wider than usual. It seems there could be some room for improvement.

When we look at the fundamentals of the corn and soybean markets they’ve been poor says Hubbs, “We are looking at higher yields than expected and large crops in South America. Still, on the corn side, it looks like demand through the 2017/18 marketing year should be really good. Ethanol grind will be really strong, exports should be there especially at these price points, and I believe feed usage should be up across the board. I think there is some strength in corn demand.”

Demand for soybeans may be a slightly different story. However, the domestic crush has been strengthening and exports to China remain super strong. The ag economist explains, “when we think about storing into next year and hedging the storage, basis is a real issue. This is particularly true in Illinois. This year we should see a typical basis pattern for corn because of the supply and demand factors. There may be a lot of basis risk in soybeans. There is really no discernible pattern for spring basis in soybeans. Some years we have a positive basis. This year we had a really weak basis for soybeans. So, I think there is a lot of basis risk when you think about storing and hedging soybeans and you should take that into consideration.”

The uncertainty surrounding corn and soybean yield projections for 2017 says Todd Hubbs may encourage a patient approach to pricing crops. By storing corn and soybeans unpriced, one holds an expectation of prices increasing by more than the cost of owning and storing them. Over the short term, significantly higher prices require a large reduction in the production forecasts by the USDA on September 12 or October 12. Over a longer horizon, higher prices may occur if demand is stronger than currently forecast. Southern hemisphere crop problems could also materialize to provide a price increase.

Sep 4 | WILLAg Newsletter

September 4, 2017

Evidence Favors the South & East Tempering Poorer Corn Belt Yields
  This map shows the August 2017 USDA Crop Production Report state by state corn yields. Rollover each state to reveal the yield. Darker green colors represent higher yields. The table gives more complete detail and breaks down the nation by region. Note the twelve corn belt states in the Midwest are expected to yield 8.4 bushels to the acre less this year than last. The southern states, while representing only about 1.5 billion bushels of the total expected 2017 production of 14.2 billion, show a year over year increase of nearly 14 bushels to the acre.

  USDA will update the Crop Production and WASDE figures Tuesday September 12, 2017. This will be followed at the end of the month by the 4th quarter Grain Stocks report Friday September 29th. Naturally, you can see these numbers shortly after their release on our website at willag.org or by following Todd's twitter account.

Marketing Panels this Week & Next
  Tuesday the 12th (next week) you are invited to review the September Crop Production and WASDE figures at the Champaign County Farm Bureau / University of Illinois Extension building. The Champaign County Marketing Club is hosting a free event starting at 7pm. Todd Gleason will moderate the panel discussion with Curt Kimmel, Chip Nellinger, and Bill Mayer. Check out the date and time in our calendar for full details. That's next week. This week, you'll note Todd and Company are off to Purdue for its Agronomy Day event. Thursday at the Beck Agricultural Center starting at 8am eastern time. During the final session of the day, starting just after lunch, Illinois Ag Economist Todd Hubbs, Purdue's Chris Hurt, and Chuck Shelby from Risk Management Commodities will take the stage for a WILLAg Marketing Panel discussion.

  Click on the links in the calendar below to reveal full details.



Notes from the Farm Progress Show
  A great big THANK YOU goes out to all those that dropped by the University of Illinois tent during last week's Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Illinois. If you missed the stage shows, or didn't hear the Closing Market Report each day, then you should take some time to come up to speed on the latest agricultural news. What follows are few of the stories collected during the week.

How Harvey Will Impact Fuel Supply Infrastructure
  Monday Todd Gleason spoke with Dave Chatterton at the Powerline Group about how Hurricane Harvey is impacting the nation’s fuel supply infrastructure.




Southern States Crop Tour Review
  The corn crop in the south is good. Very good in fact. Todd Gleason talks with Jeremy Wilson from Crop IMS.




Discussing Dicamba Damage with Robb Fraley
  Monsanto’s Robb Fraley dropped by the University of Illinois tent at the Farm Progress Show to talk about dicamba and soybeans. Todd Gleason has more…



Recruiting Higher Ed Ag Students to IL Universities
  Recruiters from Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and the University of Illinois are planning to work together to keep more agricultural students in state. Todd Gleason discussed the reasons why with them during this year’s Farm Progress Show.




House Ag Committee Members on the Farm Bill
  Members of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture held a farm bill listening session at the 2017 Farm Progress Show. Todd Gleason spoke with them afterwards and asked about the compromises which might need to be made to accommodate additional crops and the food & feeding programs.



The New IBRL Building Good for Corn Growers
  The University of Illinois has built a biofuels processing facility on campus to pilot test new energy concepts. Todd Gleason has more with the Director of the Integrated Bioprocessing Research Laboratory.




Trump Admin USDA Nominee Ted McKinney
  Todd Gleason has a conversation with Director Ted McKinney of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture. McKinney has been nominated by President Donald Trump to the post of Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs.




Trade & Farm Bill Issues with @ILCorn
  Illinois corn growers Ken Hartman from Waterloo and Roger Cy from Newman talk with Todd Gleason at the 2017 Farm Progress show about the next farm bill and trade issues.



What’s Next for @FieldView Software
  Big data tools like Climate Corp’s Field View are harnessing crop development and agronomic information from farmers and their equipment. Todd Gleason has more with Rick Myrup.



@NationalCorn Spurlock Discusses NAFA & Farm Bill
  NAFTA and the Farm Bill are the hot topics for NCGA. Todd Gleason has more with the Wesley Spurlock from Texas. He is the president of the National Corn Grower’s Association.



Thanks for Listening
  Finally, thank you for listening to our programs and following our content. You can hear the Closing Market Report on 6 Illinois stations including our home station WILL, WHOW, WTIM, WKEI, WSDR, and WLMD. Our programs are available to hear in full on our website at willag.org, in iTunes, the NPR One app, and Stitcher. You may also stay up to speed by following Todd on twitter.