Marketing a Low Priced High Volume Corn Crop

The price of corn is predicted to stay low this coming year because the size of the crop should be really big. Todd Gleason has more on just how a farmer might go about marketing under such conditions.

The numbers aren’t pretty as it relates to this year’s corn crop, at least other than the number of bushels in the bin. It should be a great big one, something on the order of 15 billion bushels thinks Darrel Good. Each of those bushels will be worth a lot less than they would have been earlier in the year and now farmers must figure out how to make a lower price and a higher yield result in a sustainable income. The price is too low to call it anything more than sustainable and the crop is too big to put it all in storage says the University of Illinois agricultural economist.

Quote Summary - So, some sales must be made between now and the end of the harvest period. Getting the extra bushels sold in the next few weeks is probably a good idea as pressure continue on futures and basis through harvest. So, if you are looking at an extra 20 to 30 bushels to the acre that you normally do not have, then you should get that priced and out of the way. However, storing the crop is the decision of choice, and the one I would choose at this point. The dilemma is that it may require a fairly long storage period to see a price recovery.

It won’t be quick or even large says Darrel Good, but a recovery should come as the days pass in 2017 and the trade looks forward to the next crop year. Storing corn on the farm and waiting for a higher price is a simple enough decision. Storing it at the grain elevator is a much tougher prospect.

Quote Summary - You’ll spend about 30 cents a bushel to hold corn to next spring. Right now the carry in the market is about that. If you look at harvest time bids plus spring basis there is about a 30 cent carry in the market and this makes commercial storage a breakeven operation at this point other than just holding for higher futures prices. Still, there is likely to be an opportunity to payoff on that, but it will take a much higher price recovery to pay for off-farm storage costs than is the case for on-farm.

You may read more about marketing corn from Darrel Good on the Farm Doc Daily website. A new article on commodity marketing is posted each Monday afternoon.

Control Mosquito Larvae & Protect Yourself

Foggers used by cities and towns can be a pretty effective tool for controlling mosquitos. They can even be used around the house. It is best, however, to start with the basics. Both types of disease carrying mosquitos need standing water to hatch. Get rid of it, especially if it is nasty water says University of Illinois Extension Entomologist Phil Nixon.

Quote Summary - Those mosquitos are quiet biters, they will sneak up and bite you. They are the ones in the case of the northern house mosquito, transmitting west nile virus and in the case of the Asian tiger mosquito Zika virus, if it gets established this coming summer. Both of these mosquitos tend to be short range flyers, usually a quarter to half a mile, and so what you do on your own property and what your neighbors do can make a huge difference in the numbers of these mosquitos and the likelyhood of being bitten.

The first line of defense says Phil Nixon, and the Centers for Disease Control, is to protect your own person and your family. Use an EPA-registered insect repellant. Clean out your gutters and get rid of standing water. If you want to go further, in the case of a backyard get together for instance, even in the Midwest where Zika carrying mosquitos are unlikely to appear, call in bigger guns like Daren Bohannan. He owns a Mosquito Squad franchise.

Quote Summary - So, when we are treating your yard here in the Midwest, we are probably not killing any of the aegypti, but there are some other mosquitos that carry other diseases like West Nile and heart worm for your pets. So, I think more people are concerned in the local area here in central Illinois with just the nuisance of mosquitos.

Once final note on mosquitos. You heard Phil Nixon say the two disease carrying types sneak up on you. Those two types aren’t particularly noisy. So, less to worry about if you hear that mosquito buzzing by just before you feel its bite.

Rachael Erin Nichole

Sunday July 17, 2016

She was doing everything right, and we still lost our Rachael Erin Nichole. She went quickly into the evening sunlight yesterday in Branson, Missouri. A place she and her mother both love.

Claranne and I thank our friends and family for their prayers. Rachael was with us only briefly, but it seemed as natural to us as if she'd been in our home all her life. We loved her as our own, and our children had already adopted Rach as a sister. She is gone from us far to soon... a heart transplant miracle from five years ago that simply succumbed suddenly and without warning.

Rachael loved life and everyone surrounding her. She knew no stranger, and endearingly called most aunt or uncle. Her world was filled with her pets, technology and innocence. She loved movies and General Hospital and the color pink. She had an infectious smile and a dismissive, but sweet eye roll, that could simultaneously amuse and correct. She wanted everyone to be happy. 

Visitation will begin at 9 a.m. Thursday July 21, 2016 at Sacred Heart Catholic Church in Peoria, Illinois followed by a memorial Mass of Christian burial at 10 a.m., with Father Jim Pankiewicz as celebrant. A committal service will follow at the Chapel of Peace at Parkview Cemetery. A celebration of life gathering immediately follow.

Todd & Claranne Gleason

1603 Spring Creek Drive

Mahomet, Illinois 61853  

Donations in Memory of Rachael Van Dyke may be made to Ronald McDonald House RMHC of St. Louis at http://www.rmhc.org/ The charity helped Rachael and her family in their time of need.

1. website - http://www.rmhc.org
2. then hit red DONATE flag
3. choose RMHC of St. Louis near the bottom of the RMHC CHAPTER TABLE
4. select Donation in Memory
5. fill in your information
6. make HONOR/MEMORIAL INFORMATION = Rachael Van Dyke

Should you want to notify the family of your donation select "Send eCard" and put Todd Gleason under Email Recipient Name and todd.e.gleason@gmail.com under email address.

Soybean Prices Dominated By Supply Uncertainty

The price of soybeans is being driving by supply side uncertainties.

The new crop November soybean contract traded at the CME Group in Chicago reached its current contract high price of $11.86 a bushel about a month ago. This is $3.22 above the low made last November. University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good says as is typically the case this time of year, price direction will now be mostly determined by the estimated size of the U.S. crop, with the pace of consumption playing a minor role.

Quote Summary - Forecasts of an upcoming period of above normal temperatures in the U.S., a continuation of strong export sales, and a strong pace to the domestic crush have helped support the recent modest price rally.

While the strong pace of export sales and the domestic crush may have provided modest support for soybean prices, the major focus writes Darrel Good in this week’s Weekly Outlook found on the FarmDocDaily website has been and will continue to be on U.S. weather and yield prospects.

The main short term uncertainty surrounds the duration of an upcoming period of above normal temperatures for much of the soybean production area. With so much of the growing season remaining, however, yield uncertainty could persist for several more weeks. The resulting price fluctuations will provide opportunities for producers to make additional sales in the run-up to harvest.

There is enough time and enough uncertainty in the market at this point for rallies to still come. When this happens Darrel Good believes farmers should reward the market with additional soybean sales.

July 5 | USDA NASS Weekly Crop Progress Report

NOAA Predicted 7 Day Rain Fall Starting July 1

Here is the current Predicted 7 Day Precipitation Totals from @NOAA. Map starts from today. pic.twitter.com/BMBH6O76OG

— Todd E. Gleason (@commodityweek) July 1, 2016

Predicted Rain Fall via @NOAA
- Friday
- Saturday
- Sunday pic.twitter.com/HTCJVZxDor

— Todd E. Gleason (@commodityweek) July 1, 2016

June Precip % of normal. This along with the high heat makes June a rough month in the corn belt. Precip coming... pic.twitter.com/eEhKikqMZD

— Todd E. Gleason (@commodityweek) July 1, 2016

June 17 | USDA NASS Weekly Crop Progress Report

Statistical Methodology
via USDA NASS

Weekly Crop Progress Report Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from approximately 4,000 respondents whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these respondents subjectively estimate the progress of crops through various stages of development, as well as the progress of producer activities. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions.

Most respondents complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, respondents are asked to report for the entire week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2015 season, over 90 percent of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, the majority of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty.

Respondents are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress.

Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Field Offices summarize the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county’s reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and respondent comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates.

Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are subject to revision the following week.

Agronomy Day on the South Farms August 18, 2016

URBANA, Ill. – Have questions about pest resistance or curious about the use of drones in agriculture? Plan to hear more on these and other topics related to crop sciences at the 59th annual Agronomy Day at the University of Illinois on August 18.

Field tour topics and speakers for Agronomy Day 2016 were recently announced. Topics include:

TOUR A
Cataloging the weapons arsenal of the Fusarium head blight pathogen
Genetic resistance for northern leaf blight and Goss’ wilt in corn
Stripe rust and scab resistance in wheat
Bt resistance in corn rootworm beetles Nematodes: How does the worm turn?

TOUR B
Nitrogen management: Balancing profitability with sustainability
Economics of nutrient management
Land values
Six weed management predictions to keep you up at night
Investigating low crop emergence in edamame

TOUR C
The show must go on: Balancing water use under continuously changing environmental conditions
Cover crops for soybean and corn rotation
Soybean planting date and variety maturity
Managing soybeans for high yields Drone information and demonstration

TOUR D
*Offered at 8:30 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. (tentative) with limited availability, as attendees will be transported offsite to SoyFACE. Attendees will need to sign up in advance at the registration table. Tours will last one hour.

What is SoyFACE?
Improving maize tolerance in air pollution CO2
Improving drought tolerance and water use efficiency in C4 crops

For a full list of this year’s speakers and topics, visit http://agronomyday.cropsci.illinois.edu/.

Agronomy Day attracts more than 1,000 people each year seeking the latest information on technology and techniques to improve food and fuel production. This year, agronomy day will be held in a new location at 4202 South 1st Street in Savoy, Illinois. For more information on speakers, displays, and location, join Agronomy Day 2016 on Facebook or visit the Agronomy Day website.

National GMO Labeling Bill in Motion

The U.S. Senate’s agricultural committee has reached a food labeling bill agreement that could set aside the state of Vermont’s GMO law. Ranking members Pat Roberts of Kansas, a Republican, and Debbie Stabenaw, a Michigan Democrat, announced a digital codes compromise. If the full Senate and the House pass the legislation food packages containing a narrowly defined set of genetically engineered ingredients would include a digital disclosure code or an on package symbol or language that the Agriculture Department would approve. The code, which could be scanned by a smartphone, would be accompanied by the sentence, “Scan here for more food information”.

The compromise narrowly defines genetically modified for the purposes of food labels. Only ingredients derived from GMO’s made by transferring genes from one organism to another would require labeling. Foods made with ingredients where the genetic code is edited - a deleted or duplicated gene for example - would not require the GMO notifications.

COMMENTARY: Robert's Rules of Order

What risks are there to organizing a sit-in on the floor of the House of Representatives?

• The House has parliamentary rules. Have these been violated? http://www.house.gov/content/learn/ http://clerk.house.gov/legislative/house-rules.pdf
• "The makeup of the Rules Committee has traditionally been weighted in favor of the majority party, and has been in its current configuration of 9 majority and 4 minority members since the late 1970s.” - from the House.gov website

Will the Ethics Committee be called to action?

• see Code of Conduct items 1 and 2 - http://ethics.house.gov/publication/code-official-conduct

Honestly, what happened on the floor of the House in my opinion is deplorable. It breaks down the rules of debate that are set up for just reasons to allow the majority (whichever party or however it is comprised) to rule. The rules allow debate to be orderly, and for the minority opinion to be heard. It does not require a vote on that opinion. This works for all parties/individuals and I am fearful what happened here will have far reaching and ill affects.
Robert’s Rules of Oder were devised, originally, from the rules of the House of Representatives. The House, therefore, has a long and storied history of orderly debate: http://www.rulesonline.com

The foundations of democracy have been shaken by this action.

Soybean Stocks, Acreage, and Weather

The price of soybeans has rallied so much this season that one agricultural economist is doubtful there is much additional upside potential.

New crop soybeans are worth about two-and-half dollars more today than back in February when farmers purchased insurance to cover the price risk inherent in farming. The rise has to do with a short crop from South America, above average temperatures in the United States, and only scattered rainfall in the mid-section of the nation. Farmers can now sell beans for about $11 a bushel for fall delivery, and that doesn’t seem too bad to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.

Quote Summary - While there is a potential for prices to move even higher with stressful summer weather, that potential may be less than the potential for corn, depending on the magnitude of planted acres, since soybean prices have already experienced a sharp rally and soybean yields are less sensitive to summer weather than are corn yields.

The path soybeans have taken to higher prices is pretty clear. The July contract at the CME Group in Chicago is up 25% since April 1, 2016. The rally came as the market came to grips with a 200 million bushel reduction in the estimated size of the combined Argentine and Brazilian soybean crops and the resulting surge in export demand for U.S. soybeans. The next stop on this price train forward is the end of month reports from the United States Department of Agriculture. USDA will release the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports June 30th. Darrel Good calculates the expected June 1 Grain Stocks for soybeans near 842 million bushels.

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Soybean Inventory Estimate
(in billion bushels)

1.531 March 1, 2016 Inventory
+ .006 Imports
- .173 Exports
- .487 Crush
- .035 Feed & Residual
–
0.842 June 1, 2016 Inventory

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He believes there is room for a surprise in the Acreage Report. USDA’s survey of farmers in March put expectations at 82.236 million acres. This number could be higher for a couple of reasons. The consensus seems to be that the June Acreage report will reveal that acreage exceeded intentions due to some switching of intended corn acreage to soybeans as the result of the increase in soybean prices relative to corn prices since March and the delayed corn planting in parts of the eastern Corn Belt.

Soybean acreage may also exceed intentions, writes Darrel Good on the FarmDocDaily website, as a result of total acreage of spring planted crops exceeding intentions reported in March.

Fungicide Applications Improve Corn Silage Feed Efficiency

June is National Dairy Month

Spraying a fungicide on corn in the Midwest has always been a 50/50 proposition related to cost. Half of the time it bumps yield by a couple of bushels and this can sometimes be enough to cover the cost. However, if that corn is going into silage, some new work from the University of Illinois says the improvement in feed efficiency for dairy cattle can pay for the fungicide not just once, but maybe twice.

Purdue University & CME Group Ag Barometer

Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture and the derivatives marketplace CME Group are partnering to produce the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, a monthly nationwide measure of the health of the U.S. agricultural economy.

The introduction of this new economic indicator underscores the importance of the agricultural economy and its participants - food producers and agribusinesses - to the overall U.S. and global economies, Purdue and CME Group said Tuesday (May 3) in announcing the partnership.

“Agriculture is a critical component of the global economy and has been the cornerstone of CME Group’s business for nearly 170 years,” said CME Group Executive Chairman and President Terry Duffy. “By providing financial tools to help producers and agribusiness participants manage the risks they face, they are better able to focus on what they do best - feeding the world. We believe this collaboration with Purdue University to create the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer will provide an essential resource for monitoring the health of the food industry and vital insight into the global economy.”

Purdue President Mitch Daniels said, “Purdue’s College of Agriculture has a long tradition of pushing us toward better food security, safety and sustainability with its cutting-edge research. We can imagine no better partner than CME Group to help us analyze and report the real-time economic health of U.S. agriculture, on which literally every citizen and the rest of the economy depends.”

Each month, the Ag Economy Barometer will provide a sense of the agricultural economy’s health with an index value. Results to calculate the index are obtained through a survey of 400 large agricultural producers on economic sentiment. In addition, Purdue will bring its research and agricultural economics expertise to measure producers’ expectations of key farm economy drivers such as farm profitability; farmland prices; capital expenditures; row crop, livestock and dairy prices; and seasonal drivers such as seed, fertilizer and feed ingredient prices.

The barometer provides a value for each month that is relative to the base period, which is the winter and spring months of 2015 and 2016, explained Jim Mintert, director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture, professor of agricultural economics and the barometer’s principal investigator. A score of 100 would mean that the sentiment is unchanged from the base period values. Higher than 100 means sentiment improved from that period, whereas lower values would indicate sentiment declined.

Quarterly, the index will be accompanied by a webinar and in-depth thought leader survey. The 100 agricultural thought leaders surveyed include agricultural lenders, business professionals, academics, consultants and commodity association representatives. This survey is separate from the results of the producer survey but serves as a supplement to the barometer.

“The barometer is the only ongoing monthly measure of the health of the agricultural economy,” Mintert said. “Also unique is that the index is calculated based on producer sentiments about both current conditions and future expectations.”

April survey results

The agricultural sentiment of U.S. producers increased to 106 in April 2016, which was an improvement in producer sentiment compared to the base period of October 2015 through March 2016. The increase was driven in part by strengthening corn, soybean and wheat prices. After months of trending lower and a sharp drop in corn prices following the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report, crop prices moved up during April. In addition, general weather conditions across the Plains and Midwest were favorable for crop development and planting and likely contributed to the improved sentiment.

“While the most recent data show an uptick in producers’ sentiment, it is important to keep the situation in perspective,” said David Widmar, senior research associate for the Center for Commercial Agriculture and lead researcher on the Ag Economy Barometer. “Overall, the general agricultural outlook is still difficult. A strong majority of respondents, from both the producer and quarterly Agricultural Thought Leaders survey, reported expectations of the next 12 months being ‘bad times’ financially across the agricultural sector.”

A website with more information on the Ag Economy Barometer is at www.purdue.edu/agbarometer.

Corn Prices to Reflect Summer Wx & Demand Strength

Summer has arrived and so has the critical three month period in which the nation’s food supply will be established. The commodity markets will follow weather conditions, crop ratings, and weather forecasts in order to form yield expectations. Todd Gleason reports the starting place is typically to assume a normal growing season.

University of Illinois Weed Science Field Research Tour

The Extension weed scientists on the University of Illinois campus in Urbana-Champaign have scheduled their annual field day. The Weed Science tour is set for Wednesday June 29th says Aaron Hager.

It’ll be at the South Farms and will begin roughly between 7:30 and 8:00 o’clock in the morning. It will be very similar in terms of format to what we’ve done before. We’ll all gather around the South Farms at the Seed House for a few introductory remarks and comments, and then everybody will get back into their vehicles and we’ll car pool across Windsor Road and look at some of the research plots on the Animal Sciences tracts.

Again, the 2016 University of Illinois Weed Science Field Day is Wednesday, June 29th at the University of Illinois Crop Sciences Research and Education Center, the South Farms, located just to the east of the State Farm Center (Assembly Hall).

Coffee and refreshments will be available under the shade trees near the Seed House beginning at 8:00 a.m. Cost for the Urbana weed science field tour is $10. The event will conclude around noon with a catered lunch.

The tour will provide ample opportunity to look at research plots and interact with weed science faculty, staff, and graduate students. Participants can compare their favorite corn and soybean herbicide programs to other commercial programs and get an early look at a few new products that soon will be on the market.

Will Summer Pricing Opportunities Materialize for Corn & Soybeans

The very low price of corn and soybeans, and predictions for even lower prices later in the year, has farmers worried. They’re wondering, even hopeful, if a summer weather rally could offer up a pricing opportunity. Darrel Good tries to answer this question in the May 23rd Weekly Outlook on the FarmDocDaily website.

Quote Summary - If a summer price rally does occur, producers will likely want to aggressively price the 2016 crop. In addition, history suggests that a weather market would also result in opportunities for pricing 2017 crops and beyond. A weather market would likely result in smaller price increases for those crops than for the 2015 and 2106 crops, similar to the recent price pattern. From the close on March 31 to the close on May 20, July 2016 corn futures gained almost $0.39, while December 2016 and December 2017 futures gained $0.31 and $0.24, respectively. From the close on March 1, July 2016 soybean futures gained $2.10, while November 2016 and November 2017 futures gained $1.79 and $0.88, respectively. Still, prices for those deferred crops could move to levels reflecting positive returns for most producers. How aggressively to price multiple crops depends on the magnitude of the price rally, should it occur.

Reasons to Price Soybeans Now …first, soybean acreage is likely to exceed intentions so that production could still be large even with a modest shortfall in yields. Second, soybean yields may be less vulnerable to stressful summer weather than corn yields. Third, soybean prices have increased more than corn prices in recent weeks and are now at a relatively high level compared to corn prices. Fourth, November 2016 soybean futures are now trading near $10.40, above the spring price guarantee of $9.73 for crop revenue insurance. Fifth, with trend yields, current new crop soybean prices are high enough to generate positive returns to owner -operators, those with crop share rents, and those with modest cash rents.

Reasons to Wait on Corn …acreage may be less than intentions, yields are more vulnerable to adverse summer weather, recent price strength has been modest, and December 2016 futures are currently trading only modestly above the spring price guarantee of $3.86 for crop revenue insurance. While waiting for a price that offers a positive return has some risk, the risk for corn seems limited over the next several weeks

$4.20 Corn Needed to Stabilize Grain Farm Income

Grain farmers throughout the Midwest are suffering through a third straight year of losses and prices don’t look to go high enough, yet, to stabilize net incomes. A University of Illinois study suggests the cash price of corn needs to be $4.20 a bushel to make that happen.

Marestail Control Prior to Planting

link to article online

Farmers in Illinois, other states too, are struggling to control glyphosate resistant weeds. Marestail can be one of the most challenging under no-till conditions prior to planting soybeans. More often than not farmers are using a tank mix of glyphosate and 2,4-D (two-four-dee). Sometimes the problem is that the weed is already too big to control, at others says University of Illinois Extension Weed Scientist Aaron Hager is its just that the 2,4-D isn’t doing the job any better than the glyphosate.

Quote Summary - Well, there are some alternatives that can be used for control of mares tail in a burn down scenario. A product called Sharpen could be included with glyphosate/2,4-D to try to increase the efficacy on the marestail and if that is the case be sure to include a methylated seed oil with any application that has Sharpen with it. Or alternatively you could switch completely over to something like a glufosinate product, like a Liberty or Interline containing product or something like Gramoxone. Either of those will typically perform better when used in combination with metribuzin and probably 2,4-D in the tank as well.

Tillage is another option, however, Hager says to delay it until field conditions are suitable and be sure to till deep enough to completely uproot all existing vegetation.

Illini Summer Academy

REGISTER NOW - Experience Ag Business on U of I Campus
June 26–29 | University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Cost: $220. Cost supported by a gift from DuPont/Pioneer.

Join us in the wonderful world of agribusiness! Create a marketing plan for a product, trade commodities and stocks and compete with others, follow the food supply chain around the world, and see agribusinesses firsthand in action. Take a step into the business world in food and agriculture, and find out more about how you can become a part of it.

Career Opportunities: Agronomist, Farm Appraiser, Agricultural Policy Analyst, Farm Manager, Crop Producer, Grain & Livestock Buyer, Market Analyst, Financier, Quality Controller, Marketing Head, Ag Science Teacher or Professor

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REGISTER NOW - Experience Crop Sciences on U of I Campus
June 26–29 | University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Cost: $205. Cost supported by a gift from DuPont/Pioneer. No repeat attendees from 2015.

Plant Science is an exciting field with many career opportunities where knowledge about plants, insects, biology, agriculture, genetics, plant pathology, horticulture and other topics are used to improve plants and their products and enhance agricultural production. Join this academy to explore plant biotechnology; discover how to identify insects, plant diseases and noxious weeds; investigate climate change and the effects on crops; learn what makes peppers hot; understand how a hydroponics system works; go on field trips and more!

Career Opportunities: Plant scientist, Agronomist or Crop Scientist, Turf Manager, Farm Manager, Food Scientist, Weed Scientist, Entomologist, Nursery and Garden Specialist, Researcher Plant Biotechnology & Molecular Biology, Sustainable Food & Production, Agro Ecology, Crop Agribusiness, Plant Protection

Summer Weather, El Niño, & Corn Yields

The agricultural economists at the land grant university in Illinois have gone through 56 years of weather data to see if there is any connection between the current El Niño event and trend yields for corn.



The trend yield for corn has been going up 1.8 bushels per yer for about 50 years say the number crunchers from the University of Illinois. It means, under normal weather conditions with a little adjustment upward, this year’s corn crop should average 166.2 bushels to the acre nationwide.



The 166.2 is the norm, but it lives within a range that would be indicative of really good years like 2004 and really bad years like 2012 says U of I’s Scott Irwin, “Now what we want to ask is if we should skew our expectations of this risk given this outside factor that doesn’t happen every year that we call El Niño”.

ILLINOIS’ research suggests the answer to this question is a qualified yes. The qualification is that the El Niño event is measured strictly as an effect of water temperature in the Pacific Ocean near the equator and that only the most extreme of these events, those a full degree or more centigrade above the norm for three months running, would be considered strong enough to regularly have a real measurable impact on U.S. crops.

The warmest one, to date, was 1997/98 and it peaked at 2.3 degrees centigrade above normal. If you take the same period and you estimate trend yields going back to 1960 there were 11 El Niño episodes at least one centigrade degree above normal. The Illinois agricultural economists filtered this data so these spikes had to occur in what they called the pre-season periods for corn production. This would be from September to March prior to the crop year. It is exactly what has happened this year and the spike is more than two degrees centigrade. It’s a really big one.

Irwin - What we find is, in these big spiking El Niños that occur in the pre-season period, that corn on average is about 4 to 5 bushels to the acre below trend.

Having said that, Irwin points to a large range of occurrences from 11 bushels above trend in 1992 to 23 bushels below trend in 1982. 1988 and 2012, the two worst drought years, also count under this construct.



The model used very reliably predicts summer heat waves, however, it is not so great at determining the amount of rainfall. Recall the reference Irwin made to the 1997/98 pre-season El Niño, the largest on record, similar to this year. The national corn yield was 3 bushels to the acre above trend. The heat wave came, it was just very last in August and early September after the corn crop had been made.

Falling Cattle Prices, Where Is the Bottom

The price of cattle has been on a downward spiral for months and ranchers and farmers are wondering when it’ll hit bottom. Todd Gleason has more on the coming prospects for the price of beef.

Wheat Quality Council 2016 Kansas Wheat Tour

Crop scouts moved through Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska the first full week of May to check on the condition of the hard red winter wheat crop (HRW). They found it to be a bin buster in the making averaging 48.6 bushels to the acre.

Farm Economy Beginning to Show Signs of Stress

This is the third year of a financial crunch on the farm. It follows on the heels of a series of tremendous seasons since 2006. The extra money, from then, is now starting to run out.

The financial stress in the ag sector may really begin to show this fall if low commodity prices persist says the Director of the TIAA CREF Center for Farmland Research on the Univeristy of Illinois campus, Bruce Sherrick.

Quote Summary - It is already affecting cash rents and land prices some. However, on a percentage basis not as much as the current cash prices (would suggest) for delivery within this year at least.

Sherrick says a a couple of things have happened which explain this buffering. The last several years have been really quite good for agricultural incomes. So, farmers have pretty strong balance sheets. It is easier to weather a downturn, says Sherrick, after a few good years, than a bad year after a few bad years, “We are seeing, clearly, working capital crunches beginning to hit people. This is the first year that is material, and lenders are seeing and uptick in volume. As we’ve adjusted to more normal stocks, we are into a period were we think, ”this might be the last year were people can really just stand for what’s going on without making some major changes in how they manage cash rents, or inputs, or financial structures".

This does not mean the price of farm land will plummet. Long term interest rates are very, very low and the rate of turnover in farmland is supper small.

Money is cheap and farmland for sale is scarce.

Quote Summary - If you look at the number of acres that sell, maybe around 2% transfer per year within the agriculturally intense states. Only half of that moves outside of a family. The market is thin, and this helps buffer or slow down changes in farmland values because of changes in short term farm income. The low interest rates help people pay for a longterm investment with a stable cash return that can be rented for perhaps 3% of its value on a cash basis.

Farm land doesn’t look like such a dire situation, then, when you step back from it. It also has shown, very reliably says Bruce Sherrick, a positive correlation with inflation. Even if the price of commodities stay relatively low, it may be that the price of farmland, as an owned asset, will help farms stay afloat.

Ukraine Aiming to be World's #2 Ag Exporter

APK-Inform reports Ukraine to take the second position for agricultural products exports, following the USA.

Ukraine has rather good prospects for strengthening the positions of domestic agricultural commodities on the world market, declared the Verkhovna Rada deputy, President of Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, Leonid Kozachenko.

According to him, in order to hold up its status of agrarian superstate, Ukraine has to invest at least 70 bln USD in the agricultural industry, and enlarge the production volumes of foodstuffs.

Ukraine will consume nearly 20% of the produced commodities, and export the remaining volumes, which will significantly replenish the state budget. Ukraine requires nearly 10 years of consolidated and stable work for development of effective public policy, deregulation and fight against corruption, to achieve the reporting objective. Only in such case, in the future Ukraine can confidently reach the second position following the USA by exports of agricultural products, said the President of Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation.

National New Era Cash Price Midpoints for Corn & Soybeans

The ag economists at the University of Illinois have updated their work predicting the “New Era” long range cash prices for corn and soybeans.

Seven years ago Darrel Good and University of Illinois colleague Scott Irwin predicted the average cash price for central Illinois corn and soybeans would be $4.60 and $11.20. It started with a simple idea. The last time the price of corn and soybeans had really changed was during the 1972/73 crop marketing year says Scott Irwin.

Quote Summary - Right. The first era was a $1.28, the second era was $2.36. The price jumped about 90%. We took that as our starting point and then realized this magnitude of jump made some sense given the market and other modeling exercises. We decided it seemed a reasonable estimate and to go with them. The equivalent numbers now are $4.35 on corn and $10.44 on soybeans.

As it turns out, those are pretty close to the actual national average monthly cash price over the first eight years of the new era. Corn has averaged $4.39 and soybeans $10.61. The fundamental question today, says Irwin, is “are these numbers still good or was the ”new era“ a temporary uptick in the market”. He is confident the numbers are solid, but cautions it was a one time move up from the old era. Pragmatically he means farmers cannot market their crop today the way they did as the move was happening.

Quote Summary - And you were rewarded for waiting, almost all the time, to do your marketing as that curve shifting occurred. I think we see the kind of opportunities in the grain markets that might be presented as the more traditional short-crop long-market-tail. If you do get that situation emerging… say corn prices, and I am not forecasting this… but let’s say there is a substantial production problem in the U.S. and corn rallied to $5.00. We wouldn’t expect that to last a long time.

There would be a quick and decisive production response in reaction to such a move in the market. The higher price then, would need to be rewarded sooner rather than later. The current rally in soybeans could be indicating just such a move, however, it would be based on poor weather conditions in South America rather than in the United States.

Quote Summary - Warning lights are flashing, that there may be opportunity ahead. Be prepared with a marketing plan, where you have some really well thought through pricing targets for your operation and be ready to execute when those opportunities arise.

You may read about the new era cash prices Scott Irwin and Darrel Good are projecting on the Farm Doc Daily website. The address is www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu.

4-H Robotics Competition @ ILLINOIS

Did you know 4-H, that’s the world’s largest youth organization, is into robots. It is, and so are kids. Todd Gleason has more from an amazing robotics competition held in mid-April on the University of Illinois campus in Champaign, Illinois.

Wet Weather Ends in Argentina, Harvest Set to Continue

The price of soybeans have jumped in Chicago in part because of really wet weather in Argentina. That’s a done deal now says meteorologist Mark Russo of Riskpulse out of Chicago, Illinois.

Mark Russo follows agricultural growing conditions around the planet for Riskpulse. He made his comments during the Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from the University of Illinois, online at WILLAg.org.

Illinois Planting Date Studies for Corn & Soybean

It looks like more rain is coming to the corn belt. That'll concern farmers hoping to plant this year's crop. However, they've got time says University of Illinois Extension Agronomist Emerson Nafziger.

There's not huge losses of yield as long as you can get corn planted by the second week of May - Emerson Nafziger, University of Illinois 

The fact is Nafziger would rather wait than put a crop in the ground under not so great soil conditions, "I think it is easy at this time of year to do more harm than good by planting it when you say, " well I don't think this soil is quite ready, but I think we'll have to get started and go." And our goal is to get it planted when it is fit, and as soon as we can when it is fit".

Corn planting date response over 35 Illinois site-years, 2007-2015. Yields are expressed as a percentage of the yield produced by the highest-yielding date at that site.

Nafziger's planting date studies across the state of Illinois over the last nine years put the optimum planting date for corn at April 17th. Planting dates from April 5 to April 25 maximize corn yield within a two bushel range. Corn planted April 30th loses two bushels off the top, and a delay to May 10th puts the expected loss at 8 bushels to the acre.
 

It's clear, by the University of Illinois planting date studies, that soybeans sown in April can do well. This is the case even in southern Illinois, although it's really hard to get a good early stand. Yields in the top two-thirds of the state respond the same way to earlier planting dates. The earliest dates, starting around the 10th of April, have the highest yields and things fall off as time passes, however, Nafziger is a bit cautious about planting so very early. He simply states to start when field conditions are good to go.

Our work is showing the best time to plant soybeans is the last week of April to the first two weeks of May. - Emerson Nafziger, University of Illinois 

The average maximum yield for soybeans over the 23 site years of the study, gathered from 2010-2015, is 67 bushels to the acre. There is a two-and-a-half bushel decline from April 10 to April 30th, four bushels by May 10th, seven bushels for a delay to May 20th, 11 bushels to the end of the month, 14 by the 10th of June, and 19 by the 20th.

Soybean planting date response over 23 trials in central and northern Illinois, 2010-2015. Yields are expressed as a percentage of the yield of the highest-yielding date within each trial.

Interestingly, comments Nafziger, the usual halfway point for soybean planting in Illinois is about May 20th. That is, he says, only because of the wet conditions that keep farmers out of the field. Given all of this, the U of I agronomist says he wouldn't wait after planting corn to start planting soybeans, "We've seen some sizable yield losses with soybeans by planting too early, but by too early I mean the first half of April".

There are two ways to get lower yields from planting soybeans too early. First, there are drought years like 2012. When planting late in 2012 you picked up moisture later in the season to get better yields. In-other-words, too much dry weather during flowering can really do a number of the crop. The other is if it gets really cool early after soybeans have emerged. It can actually keep them physiologically below their maximum yield says Nafziger.

Pragmatically speaking, Emerson Nafziger says as long as soil conditions are good, he'd begin planting soybeans as soon as corn planting is completed and, after some momentary consideration, says he'd move to a soybean field if soil conditions in the next corn field weren't up to par.

Is Fall-Applied Nitrogen Still Present

Corn growers are concerned about the amount of fall-applied nitrogen that might have been lost through the winter and how this might change nitrogen management this spring.

The first question that needs to be asked on nitrogen management is simple says University of Illinois Extension Agronomist Emerson Nafziger. You need to know how much nitrogen the crop will need, then how much is naturally available, and finally, how much should be applied.

“Our best estimate, and this is a bit of a floppy number, is the crop will take up about a pound of nitrogen for each bushel it produces. About two-thirds of that is going to be in the grain and removed by harvest of the crop. The other third will be in the residue. Some of this will get back into the soil, some won’t”, says Emerson Nafziger.

The amount of nitrogen needed then is about 1 pound for every bushel expected. If the expected yield is 200 bushels to the acre, then it will need 200 pounds of nitrogen.

Pay attention to this part.

Nafziger wrote in an article for the U of I’s pest management bulletin on April 18th that the more productive soils in Illinois contain about 3.5% organic matter. A rule of thumb calculation, read it online in The Bulletin, puts the N from this organic matter at 140 pounds. In some years this is apparently all available to the crop, and in others it isn’t.

The N Rate Calculator, which you may find online, tries to average out the low and high organic N years. N added as fertilizer for corn following soybeans in southern and central Illinois should be about 170 pounds, 20 pounds less in northern Illinois.

As for nitrogen loss, Nafziger has this to say in The Bulletin as it relates to his recent nitrogen treatment studies, “ these results show both the risk of N loss and the benefit from delaying some of the N or using inhibitors may be a little less than we’ve thought. Getting data from another year or two will help paint the picture more fully, but these results give some reason to be confident that the N management systems in common use all have good potential to provide the crop with N. Adding costs by changing N management, for example by making another trip over the field to apply late N, may not provide a positive return compared to applying all of the N in one or two earlier trips.”

Nafziger says the corn crop takes up most of its nitrogen in June.

Soybeans, the Switch is On

Ever since USDA released the Prospective Plantings report March 31st, many have been wondering if farmers will decide to switch a few corn acres to soybeans. The higher price of that crop seems to make this more likely.



Farmers told USDA in March they would plant about 82.2 million acres of soybeans this season. This is one percent less than last year, and a million acres or so less than the trade had really expected. Prices have rallied since then and University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good thinks that million acres could be back in play, but that it won’t really change much, "I tend to think there will be some modest switching given the price reaction we’ve had since that report was released. Soybeans are considerably stronger than when the survey was done and corn prices are steady to weaker than when farmers were surveyed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see up to a million acres, perhaps, move away from corn to soybeans or perhaps some other crops. Again, a million acres doesn’t alter the supply expectation very much".

However, very much, can result in a pretty good rally. Darrel Good and colleague Scott Irwin at ILLINOIS put together a supply and demand table for this year. They added 800,000 planted acres to soybeans, putting the figure at 83 million even. The two project this could result in a 267 million bushel ending stocks number with an average cash price of $9.45 a bushel for the year. USDA season’s average cash price for soybeans for the 2015 crop is $8.75. It’s important to note that while the ILLINOIS projection uses a larger planted acreage figure, it also includes a much lower average yield. Good says there are two reasons for this.

Quote Summary - Our calculated trend yields for both corn and soybeans would be a little less the USDA. So, we start a little lower than they start. And then we monitor the El Niño episode that tends to be fading pretty quickly right now. This suggests to us an elevated risk of below trend yields this year. We start with a lower trend yield on corn, 166.2, and I would want to fade that three or four bushels in my expectations right now. We’d start at 45.2 bushels on soybeans and fade that bushel or so based on the El Niño.

Actually, the projection is down 1.2 bushels to the acre for a projected nationwide average yield of 44.

University of Illinois 16/17 Soybean Balance Sheet Projection - April 13, 2016

USDA will release its first projection of the current growing season supply and demand tables May 10th. Those numbers most assuredly will not yet update acreage, nor are they likely to include a deviation from trend line based on summer weather predictions.

Implications of Corn and Soybean Planting Progress

Each Monday afternoon during the growing season USDA releases the Planting Progress report. Todd Gleason files this report on how it is assessed by the trade; and how really it is summer weather that make the difference, not the pace of planting.

Nafziger on 2016 Growing Season

Univeristy of Illinois Extension Agronomist talks with Todd Gleason about the amount of nitrogen available to the corn plant during the growing season, how that fertilizer faired over the warm wet winter months, when to plant corn, and if it is ok to plant soybeans earlier than normal.

TTIP & Ag Polices - with Damien Levie, EU Trade Negotiator

There are two trade negotiations under consideration in the United States at this time. We often hear about TPP, or the Trans Pacific Partnership. The other is called T-TIP. Todd Gleason has more on the European perspective of this contentious deal.

USDA March 31 Report Day React - interview with Darrel Good

Prospective Plantings

Grain Stocks

Targeting the Middle of the Chain

Secretary Vilsack has identified strengthening local and regional food systems as one of the four pillars of USDA’s commitment to rural economic development. Part of this focus in on the middle of the supply chain. Todd Gleason reports USDA is helping to make investments in this space.

USDA Toolkit Designed to help Pitch Local Foods

The United States Department of Agriculture has been moving to support local food production throughout the nation. The agency is focusing on bringing new farmers and businesses into rural and urban areas. To that end, it has developed an online toolkit entrepreneurs can use to help pitch their ideas to lenders and local governments.

John Deere Sought Hagie

Amber Kohlhass, Communications Manager - Hagie Manufacturing

John Deere News Release

MOLINE, ILLINOIS (March 29, 2016) - Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) has entered a joint venture with Hagie Manufacturing, the U.S. market leader in high-clearance sprayers. In the agreement, Deere acquires majority ownership of Hagie Manufacturing, which will continue producing sprayers in its current Clarion, Iowa location.

Equipment made by the joint venture will continue to carry the Hagie brand while sales and service for Hagie equipment will be integrated into Deere’s global distribution channel over the next 15 months.

“Hagie Manufacturing is known for innovation and its strong customer understanding in high-clearance spraying equipment,” said John May, president, Agricultural Solutions and Chief Information Officer at Deere. “High-clearance spraying equipment is a new market for Deere. The expertise at Hagie allows John Deere to immediately serve customers who need precision solutions that extend their window for applying nutrients.”

Alan Hagie, chief executive officer at Hagie Manufacturing, said, “We have great products at Hagie that help producers be more profitable but we need a business model that helps us reach more customers. This partnership with Deere allows our solutions to reach customers on a global scale and ensure they are supported with the world-class Deere dealer organization.”

May said the joint venture investment allows John Deere to provide a broader range of sprayer options and integrate Deere’s precision technology into the Hagie equipment to help customers reduce costs and improve yields.

Deere & Company (www.JohnDeere.com) is a world leader in providing advanced products and services and is committed to the success of customers whose work is linked to the land – those who cultivate, harvest, transform, enrich and build upon the land to meet the world’s dramatically increasing need for food, fuel, shelter and infrastructure.

Hagie Manufacturing (www.hagie.com) provides innovative crop protection solutions that are purposeful tools to drive economic benefits, while also performing responsible stewardship and best agricultural practices. Hagie was advised by NCP, Inc. as its exclusive financial advisor on the transaction.

Fewer Hogs and Higher Prices

The last Hogs and Pigs report is good news for pork producers. Todd Gleason reports it showed fewer hogs are being raised in the United States and that, in turn, should boost prices.

Pork producers say they’ll reduce the size of their breeding herds. Or at least that’s what the latest Hogs and Pigs report showed. Purdue Extension Agricultural Economist Chris Hurt says farrowing should begin slow this spring and summer. However, right now, the breeding herd is as big as it was at this same time last year. Still, it’s a pattern of change and reduction says Hurt.

Quote Summary - The herd had been in an expansion phase from the last half of 2014 through 2015. That expansion was largely because of record high profits due to baby pig losses from PED. That expansion phase seemingly has now ended.

This ‘ending’ is a bit uneven geographically. For the 16 states USDA surveys for the March report, the breeding herd is up nine percent in Oklahoma and 10 percent in Texas. Some of the primary Midwestern states reported a decrease in their breeding herds over the past year; Iowa down five percent, Missouri down four percent, and Minnesota down two percent. In Indiana, where corn yields were reduced by summer flooding, the breeding herd was down seven percent. Those are all the current breeding herd numbers. It’s the forward looking projections that provide hope for higher pork prices.

Pork supplies in the first quarter of 2017 will come from the three percent smaller summer farrowings. However, with more pigs per litter and heavier weights, pork production is expected to be only about one percent smaller.

Chris Hurt’s price forecast for market hogs then is in a range of $49 to $54 for all of 2016, about $1 higher than last year. He expects prices to rise to the $55 to $58 range for averages in the second and third quarters, normally the grill-out seasonal highs, and then to finish the year in the mid-to-higher $40s.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture - interview with Tom Vilsack

Up next… U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack has a discussion about policy making news in Washington, D.C. including the TPP, the just announced Local Foods Toolkit, and GMO labeling laws.

USDA New Farmers & Businesses - Good Food Festival Interview

The United States Department of Agriculture has been moving to support local food production throughout the nation. Todd Gleason has more on how and why the agency is focusing on bringing new farmers and businesses into rural and urban areas.

Good Food Festival & Conference

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of this week the University of Illinois Chicago Forum will host the Good Food Festival & Conference. It is all about raising, marketing, and eating locally grown fruits, vegetables, and meats. Todd Gleason has more with Zach Grant from University of Illinois Extension.

Why Urban Agriculture | with Zach Grant

Extension systems across the United States are targeting the development of local food systems around large and small communities. Todd Gleason has more on the reasons why with University of Illinois Extension Local Food Systems & Small Farms Educator Zach Grant.

Any Information in Mid-Year Soybean Stocks Estimate

Next week (Thursday March 31) USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Typically it is overshadowed by the Prospective Plantings report released on the same date. However, as Todd Gleason reports, it occasionally provides a surprise to the trade.

For soybeans, the stocks estimate is often very near the level expected by the market says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good. This is because we generally know how many soybeans are used at any point during year based off the magnitude of the domestic crush and the exports, both of which are tallied either by the government, the industry, or the two combined. The stocks estimate, says Good, really does indicated the magnitude of seed, feed, and residual use of soybeans in the previous quarter. Unlike corn, for which feed and residual use is a large portion of disappearance, seed, feed, and residual use of soybeans is a relatively small portion of disappearance during the winter months. However, he cautions, occasionally the March 1 stocks estimate provides a surprise.

Based on the average trade guess reported by news services, the March 1 stocks estimate has deviated from market expectations by more than 30 million bushels nine times and by more than 60 million bushels four times in the past 25 years.

The expected level of soybean stocks on March 1 this year can be calculated. The USDA’s Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks report provides information for December of 2015 and January of 2016. The estimate for February will be released April 1. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) estimate of the magnitude of the February soybean crush by its members can be used to estimate the total February crush. For the nine months that USDA has provided soybean crush estimates (May 2015-January 2016), the USDA crush estimates have exceeded the NOPA crush estimates by 6.4 percent. Applying that ratio to the NOPA February crush estimate, suggests to Darrel Good that 483.1 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in the second quarter of the current marketing year. It’s possible to calculate the number of soybeans exported in the last quarter, too.

Based on a combination of USDA and Census Bureau export estimates, second quarter exports totaled just over 677 million bushels.

This leaves the seed, feed, and residual usage factor. That’s tougher to figure, but a much smaller number. If this year follows the average consumption pattern Good says it would be about 12 million bushels in the second quarter. So, 483 crushed plus 677 exported plus 12 fed equals roughly 1.173 billion bushels consumed in the second quarter. Subtract that from the first quarter stocks, plus the imports and you get 1.55 billion bushels of soybeans on hand March 1st in the United States. The Grain Stocks report March 31 shouldn’t vary much from this number, but it could says Darrel Good.

If the March 1 stocks estimate is surprisingly large or small, the accuracy of USDA’s 2015 production estimate may be called into question. The USDA has revised the previous year’s production estimate by varying amounts in 20 of the past 25 years based on the stocks estimate at the end of the marketing year (September 1). However, it would be pre-mature to question the accuracy of the production estimate based on the March 1 stocks estimate due to the large variation in the quarterly pattern of seed, feed, and residual use of soybeans.

The eight largest revisions in the production estimates following the USDA’s September 1 stocks estimate ranged from 1.1 to 3.5 percent. Only three of those eight large revisions followed a surprise in the March 1 stocks estimate that exceeded 30 million bushels. Conversely, of the nine years in which the magnitude of the surprise in March 1 stocks estimate exceeded 30 million bushels, only three were followed by revisions in the production estimate that exceeded one percent.

Are Soybeans-After-Soybeans Profitable | with Gary Schnitkey

Low commodity prices have farmers around the nation considering a different crop rotation. Some have been wondering if it might be more profitable to plant soybeans after soybeans this year. University of Illinois Extension Economist Gary Schnitkey addressed the issue on the FarmDocDaily website and told Todd Gleason farmers in northern and southern Illinois might consider the option.

Allendale Releases 2016 Acreage Survey

Allendale, Inc. estimates US grain and oilseed producers will increase corn and wheat acres, while lowering the number of acres sown to soybean. All three survey totals are higher than USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates. 

Corn planting intentions of 90.431 million acres would be the sixth largest acreage of the past ten years. Allendale’s production estimate would imply a production increase of 31 million over last year’s record.

Soybean planting intentions are seen at 82.575 million acres, the third largest ever. Allendale’s production estimate would be 207 million under last year’s record level due to a return back from record 2015 yields.

Wheat acreage is estimated at 51.769 million acres. This would be the smallest acreage since 1970. Allendale’s production estimate is 53 million under last year’s level.

The results are based on the firm’s 27th annual Producer Acreage Survey. Submissions were made directly by producers in 25 states by phone and online from February 26, 2016 to March 11, 2016.

The United States Department of Agriculture is now surveying some 80,000 producers on their cropping intentions for the year. USDA's 2016 Prospective Plantings report is due March 31st.

Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings Reports Previews

USDA will officially kick off the new year for the spring planted crops when it releases two reports on the last day of the month.

The Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will be released March 31st. Darrel Good says both will help set the tone of the trade for corn and soybeans going forward.

Quote Summary - The Stocks report will be modestly important as it always is for corn. It will give us a reading on how fast we are feeding last year’s crop, but the real information will be in the Prospective Plantings report. It can be a mixed bag. This is because we all know actual plantings deviate from intentions. Certainly, though, when we see the March survey and what farmers are planning this year, it will provide a lot of information about the potential size of the upcoming crops.

The Prospective Plantings report is set up to be very interesting. More than a few acres around the United States need a new home on the spreadsheets. For instance, last fall farmers seeded about 2.8 million fewer acres of winter wheat than they did the previous year. When you couple those acres with what most expect to be fewer Prevent Plant acres, it creates an interesting combination says the University of Illinois agricultural economist.

Quote Summary - On the surface this says, “We’ll have more acres available than we had last year”. What the intentions report will give us a hint at is whether producers are thinking about leaving some acreage idle in 2016 because of the generally low commodity prices. For example, will the winter wheat acres that didn’t get planted go to fallow, or to annual pasture, or will they go to sorghum or an oilseed. Will we see some of the so called fringe areas leave some acreage idled as the numbers would suggest we’ve seen in the past when prices are low. So, that big picture question will be most important in the March plantings report.

Again, the reports will be released March 31st. Last year there were 6.7 million acres of Prevent Plant. That’s on the high side because of the heavy 2015 rainfall. Darrel Good expects this year to be something closer to 3 million acres. And, when you round up to 3 million fewer acres of winter wheat, you get about 6 million float acres that need a home this year either idled, or planted.

Notes from the Illinois Soybean Summit | Rockford Edition

This morning, March 11th, DTN Progressive Farmer meteorologist Bryce Anderson told farmers at the Illinois Soybean Summit weather would cap this year’s potential yields. Todd Gleason is emceeing the event, and asked Anderson if he means it is unlikely for yields to be better than USDA’s trendline.

The Senior Grains Analyst for Farm Futures Magazine was also at the summit. Bryce Knorr told the group to reward market rallies.

The Illinois Soybean Summit took place Friday March 11, 2016 in Rockford.

WASDE a Shade Friendly

USDA’s March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report didn’t really change much, still that seems a shade friendlier than before to University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good.

El Niño & 2016 Corn Yields | an interview with Scott Irwin

There continues to be an immense amount of discussion about the impact of El Niño on agriculture. Many are wondering what will happen to the Midwest corn crop this summer. Univesity of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good and Scott Irwin explored the historical data in order to develop some 2016 expectations. You may read their conclusions on the FarmDocDaily website. Irwin spoke at length with Univesity of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason about the research during WILLAg.org’s Closing Market Report.