Illinois Planting Date Studies for Corn & Soybean

It looks like more rain is coming to the corn belt. That'll concern farmers hoping to plant this year's crop. However, they've got time says University of Illinois Extension Agronomist Emerson Nafziger.

There's not huge losses of yield as long as you can get corn planted by the second week of May - Emerson Nafziger, University of Illinois 

The fact is Nafziger would rather wait than put a crop in the ground under not so great soil conditions, "I think it is easy at this time of year to do more harm than good by planting it when you say, " well I don't think this soil is quite ready, but I think we'll have to get started and go." And our goal is to get it planted when it is fit, and as soon as we can when it is fit".

Corn planting date response over 35 Illinois site-years, 2007-2015. Yields are expressed as a percentage of the yield produced by the highest-yielding date at that site.

Nafziger's planting date studies across the state of Illinois over the last nine years put the optimum planting date for corn at April 17th. Planting dates from April 5 to April 25 maximize corn yield within a two bushel range. Corn planted April 30th loses two bushels off the top, and a delay to May 10th puts the expected loss at 8 bushels to the acre.
 

It's clear, by the University of Illinois planting date studies, that soybeans sown in April can do well. This is the case even in southern Illinois, although it's really hard to get a good early stand. Yields in the top two-thirds of the state respond the same way to earlier planting dates. The earliest dates, starting around the 10th of April, have the highest yields and things fall off as time passes, however, Nafziger is a bit cautious about planting so very early. He simply states to start when field conditions are good to go.

Our work is showing the best time to plant soybeans is the last week of April to the first two weeks of May. - Emerson Nafziger, University of Illinois 

The average maximum yield for soybeans over the 23 site years of the study, gathered from 2010-2015, is 67 bushels to the acre. There is a two-and-a-half bushel decline from April 10 to April 30th, four bushels by May 10th, seven bushels for a delay to May 20th, 11 bushels to the end of the month, 14 by the 10th of June, and 19 by the 20th.

Soybean planting date response over 23 trials in central and northern Illinois, 2010-2015. Yields are expressed as a percentage of the yield of the highest-yielding date within each trial.

Interestingly, comments Nafziger, the usual halfway point for soybean planting in Illinois is about May 20th. That is, he says, only because of the wet conditions that keep farmers out of the field. Given all of this, the U of I agronomist says he wouldn't wait after planting corn to start planting soybeans, "We've seen some sizable yield losses with soybeans by planting too early, but by too early I mean the first half of April".

There are two ways to get lower yields from planting soybeans too early. First, there are drought years like 2012. When planting late in 2012 you picked up moisture later in the season to get better yields. In-other-words, too much dry weather during flowering can really do a number of the crop. The other is if it gets really cool early after soybeans have emerged. It can actually keep them physiologically below their maximum yield says Nafziger.

Pragmatically speaking, Emerson Nafziger says as long as soil conditions are good, he'd begin planting soybeans as soon as corn planting is completed and, after some momentary consideration, says he'd move to a soybean field if soil conditions in the next corn field weren't up to par.

Is Fall-Applied Nitrogen Still Present

Corn growers are concerned about the amount of fall-applied nitrogen that might have been lost through the winter and how this might change nitrogen management this spring.

The first question that needs to be asked on nitrogen management is simple says University of Illinois Extension Agronomist Emerson Nafziger. You need to know how much nitrogen the crop will need, then how much is naturally available, and finally, how much should be applied.

“Our best estimate, and this is a bit of a floppy number, is the crop will take up about a pound of nitrogen for each bushel it produces. About two-thirds of that is going to be in the grain and removed by harvest of the crop. The other third will be in the residue. Some of this will get back into the soil, some won’t”, says Emerson Nafziger.

The amount of nitrogen needed then is about 1 pound for every bushel expected. If the expected yield is 200 bushels to the acre, then it will need 200 pounds of nitrogen.

Pay attention to this part.

Nafziger wrote in an article for the U of I’s pest management bulletin on April 18th that the more productive soils in Illinois contain about 3.5% organic matter. A rule of thumb calculation, read it online in The Bulletin, puts the N from this organic matter at 140 pounds. In some years this is apparently all available to the crop, and in others it isn’t.

The N Rate Calculator, which you may find online, tries to average out the low and high organic N years. N added as fertilizer for corn following soybeans in southern and central Illinois should be about 170 pounds, 20 pounds less in northern Illinois.

As for nitrogen loss, Nafziger has this to say in The Bulletin as it relates to his recent nitrogen treatment studies, “ these results show both the risk of N loss and the benefit from delaying some of the N or using inhibitors may be a little less than we’ve thought. Getting data from another year or two will help paint the picture more fully, but these results give some reason to be confident that the N management systems in common use all have good potential to provide the crop with N. Adding costs by changing N management, for example by making another trip over the field to apply late N, may not provide a positive return compared to applying all of the N in one or two earlier trips.”

Nafziger says the corn crop takes up most of its nitrogen in June.

Soybeans, the Switch is On

Ever since USDA released the Prospective Plantings report March 31st, many have been wondering if farmers will decide to switch a few corn acres to soybeans. The higher price of that crop seems to make this more likely.



Farmers told USDA in March they would plant about 82.2 million acres of soybeans this season. This is one percent less than last year, and a million acres or so less than the trade had really expected. Prices have rallied since then and University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good thinks that million acres could be back in play, but that it won’t really change much, "I tend to think there will be some modest switching given the price reaction we’ve had since that report was released. Soybeans are considerably stronger than when the survey was done and corn prices are steady to weaker than when farmers were surveyed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see up to a million acres, perhaps, move away from corn to soybeans or perhaps some other crops. Again, a million acres doesn’t alter the supply expectation very much".

However, very much, can result in a pretty good rally. Darrel Good and colleague Scott Irwin at ILLINOIS put together a supply and demand table for this year. They added 800,000 planted acres to soybeans, putting the figure at 83 million even. The two project this could result in a 267 million bushel ending stocks number with an average cash price of $9.45 a bushel for the year. USDA season’s average cash price for soybeans for the 2015 crop is $8.75. It’s important to note that while the ILLINOIS projection uses a larger planted acreage figure, it also includes a much lower average yield. Good says there are two reasons for this.

Quote Summary - Our calculated trend yields for both corn and soybeans would be a little less the USDA. So, we start a little lower than they start. And then we monitor the El Niño episode that tends to be fading pretty quickly right now. This suggests to us an elevated risk of below trend yields this year. We start with a lower trend yield on corn, 166.2, and I would want to fade that three or four bushels in my expectations right now. We’d start at 45.2 bushels on soybeans and fade that bushel or so based on the El Niño.

Actually, the projection is down 1.2 bushels to the acre for a projected nationwide average yield of 44.

University of Illinois 16/17 Soybean Balance Sheet Projection - April 13, 2016

USDA will release its first projection of the current growing season supply and demand tables May 10th. Those numbers most assuredly will not yet update acreage, nor are they likely to include a deviation from trend line based on summer weather predictions.

Implications of Corn and Soybean Planting Progress

Each Monday afternoon during the growing season USDA releases the Planting Progress report. Todd Gleason files this report on how it is assessed by the trade; and how really it is summer weather that make the difference, not the pace of planting.

Nafziger on 2016 Growing Season

Univeristy of Illinois Extension Agronomist talks with Todd Gleason about the amount of nitrogen available to the corn plant during the growing season, how that fertilizer faired over the warm wet winter months, when to plant corn, and if it is ok to plant soybeans earlier than normal.

TTIP & Ag Polices - with Damien Levie, EU Trade Negotiator

There are two trade negotiations under consideration in the United States at this time. We often hear about TPP, or the Trans Pacific Partnership. The other is called T-TIP. Todd Gleason has more on the European perspective of this contentious deal.

USDA March 31 Report Day React - interview with Darrel Good

Prospective Plantings

Grain Stocks

Targeting the Middle of the Chain

Secretary Vilsack has identified strengthening local and regional food systems as one of the four pillars of USDA’s commitment to rural economic development. Part of this focus in on the middle of the supply chain. Todd Gleason reports USDA is helping to make investments in this space.

USDA Toolkit Designed to help Pitch Local Foods

The United States Department of Agriculture has been moving to support local food production throughout the nation. The agency is focusing on bringing new farmers and businesses into rural and urban areas. To that end, it has developed an online toolkit entrepreneurs can use to help pitch their ideas to lenders and local governments.

John Deere Sought Hagie

Amber Kohlhass, Communications Manager - Hagie Manufacturing

John Deere News Release

MOLINE, ILLINOIS (March 29, 2016) - Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) has entered a joint venture with Hagie Manufacturing, the U.S. market leader in high-clearance sprayers. In the agreement, Deere acquires majority ownership of Hagie Manufacturing, which will continue producing sprayers in its current Clarion, Iowa location.

Equipment made by the joint venture will continue to carry the Hagie brand while sales and service for Hagie equipment will be integrated into Deere’s global distribution channel over the next 15 months.

“Hagie Manufacturing is known for innovation and its strong customer understanding in high-clearance spraying equipment,” said John May, president, Agricultural Solutions and Chief Information Officer at Deere. “High-clearance spraying equipment is a new market for Deere. The expertise at Hagie allows John Deere to immediately serve customers who need precision solutions that extend their window for applying nutrients.”

Alan Hagie, chief executive officer at Hagie Manufacturing, said, “We have great products at Hagie that help producers be more profitable but we need a business model that helps us reach more customers. This partnership with Deere allows our solutions to reach customers on a global scale and ensure they are supported with the world-class Deere dealer organization.”

May said the joint venture investment allows John Deere to provide a broader range of sprayer options and integrate Deere’s precision technology into the Hagie equipment to help customers reduce costs and improve yields.

Deere & Company (www.JohnDeere.com) is a world leader in providing advanced products and services and is committed to the success of customers whose work is linked to the land – those who cultivate, harvest, transform, enrich and build upon the land to meet the world’s dramatically increasing need for food, fuel, shelter and infrastructure.

Hagie Manufacturing (www.hagie.com) provides innovative crop protection solutions that are purposeful tools to drive economic benefits, while also performing responsible stewardship and best agricultural practices. Hagie was advised by NCP, Inc. as its exclusive financial advisor on the transaction.

Fewer Hogs and Higher Prices

The last Hogs and Pigs report is good news for pork producers. Todd Gleason reports it showed fewer hogs are being raised in the United States and that, in turn, should boost prices.

Pork producers say they’ll reduce the size of their breeding herds. Or at least that’s what the latest Hogs and Pigs report showed. Purdue Extension Agricultural Economist Chris Hurt says farrowing should begin slow this spring and summer. However, right now, the breeding herd is as big as it was at this same time last year. Still, it’s a pattern of change and reduction says Hurt.

Quote Summary - The herd had been in an expansion phase from the last half of 2014 through 2015. That expansion was largely because of record high profits due to baby pig losses from PED. That expansion phase seemingly has now ended.

This ‘ending’ is a bit uneven geographically. For the 16 states USDA surveys for the March report, the breeding herd is up nine percent in Oklahoma and 10 percent in Texas. Some of the primary Midwestern states reported a decrease in their breeding herds over the past year; Iowa down five percent, Missouri down four percent, and Minnesota down two percent. In Indiana, where corn yields were reduced by summer flooding, the breeding herd was down seven percent. Those are all the current breeding herd numbers. It’s the forward looking projections that provide hope for higher pork prices.

Pork supplies in the first quarter of 2017 will come from the three percent smaller summer farrowings. However, with more pigs per litter and heavier weights, pork production is expected to be only about one percent smaller.

Chris Hurt’s price forecast for market hogs then is in a range of $49 to $54 for all of 2016, about $1 higher than last year. He expects prices to rise to the $55 to $58 range for averages in the second and third quarters, normally the grill-out seasonal highs, and then to finish the year in the mid-to-higher $40s.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture - interview with Tom Vilsack

Up next… U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack has a discussion about policy making news in Washington, D.C. including the TPP, the just announced Local Foods Toolkit, and GMO labeling laws.

USDA New Farmers & Businesses - Good Food Festival Interview

The United States Department of Agriculture has been moving to support local food production throughout the nation. Todd Gleason has more on how and why the agency is focusing on bringing new farmers and businesses into rural and urban areas.

Good Food Festival & Conference

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of this week the University of Illinois Chicago Forum will host the Good Food Festival & Conference. It is all about raising, marketing, and eating locally grown fruits, vegetables, and meats. Todd Gleason has more with Zach Grant from University of Illinois Extension.

Why Urban Agriculture | with Zach Grant

Extension systems across the United States are targeting the development of local food systems around large and small communities. Todd Gleason has more on the reasons why with University of Illinois Extension Local Food Systems & Small Farms Educator Zach Grant.

Any Information in Mid-Year Soybean Stocks Estimate

Next week (Thursday March 31) USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Typically it is overshadowed by the Prospective Plantings report released on the same date. However, as Todd Gleason reports, it occasionally provides a surprise to the trade.

For soybeans, the stocks estimate is often very near the level expected by the market says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good. This is because we generally know how many soybeans are used at any point during year based off the magnitude of the domestic crush and the exports, both of which are tallied either by the government, the industry, or the two combined. The stocks estimate, says Good, really does indicated the magnitude of seed, feed, and residual use of soybeans in the previous quarter. Unlike corn, for which feed and residual use is a large portion of disappearance, seed, feed, and residual use of soybeans is a relatively small portion of disappearance during the winter months. However, he cautions, occasionally the March 1 stocks estimate provides a surprise.

Based on the average trade guess reported by news services, the March 1 stocks estimate has deviated from market expectations by more than 30 million bushels nine times and by more than 60 million bushels four times in the past 25 years.

The expected level of soybean stocks on March 1 this year can be calculated. The USDA’s Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks report provides information for December of 2015 and January of 2016. The estimate for February will be released April 1. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) estimate of the magnitude of the February soybean crush by its members can be used to estimate the total February crush. For the nine months that USDA has provided soybean crush estimates (May 2015-January 2016), the USDA crush estimates have exceeded the NOPA crush estimates by 6.4 percent. Applying that ratio to the NOPA February crush estimate, suggests to Darrel Good that 483.1 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in the second quarter of the current marketing year. It’s possible to calculate the number of soybeans exported in the last quarter, too.

Based on a combination of USDA and Census Bureau export estimates, second quarter exports totaled just over 677 million bushels.

This leaves the seed, feed, and residual usage factor. That’s tougher to figure, but a much smaller number. If this year follows the average consumption pattern Good says it would be about 12 million bushels in the second quarter. So, 483 crushed plus 677 exported plus 12 fed equals roughly 1.173 billion bushels consumed in the second quarter. Subtract that from the first quarter stocks, plus the imports and you get 1.55 billion bushels of soybeans on hand March 1st in the United States. The Grain Stocks report March 31 shouldn’t vary much from this number, but it could says Darrel Good.

If the March 1 stocks estimate is surprisingly large or small, the accuracy of USDA’s 2015 production estimate may be called into question. The USDA has revised the previous year’s production estimate by varying amounts in 20 of the past 25 years based on the stocks estimate at the end of the marketing year (September 1). However, it would be pre-mature to question the accuracy of the production estimate based on the March 1 stocks estimate due to the large variation in the quarterly pattern of seed, feed, and residual use of soybeans.

The eight largest revisions in the production estimates following the USDA’s September 1 stocks estimate ranged from 1.1 to 3.5 percent. Only three of those eight large revisions followed a surprise in the March 1 stocks estimate that exceeded 30 million bushels. Conversely, of the nine years in which the magnitude of the surprise in March 1 stocks estimate exceeded 30 million bushels, only three were followed by revisions in the production estimate that exceeded one percent.

Are Soybeans-After-Soybeans Profitable | with Gary Schnitkey

Low commodity prices have farmers around the nation considering a different crop rotation. Some have been wondering if it might be more profitable to plant soybeans after soybeans this year. University of Illinois Extension Economist Gary Schnitkey addressed the issue on the FarmDocDaily website and told Todd Gleason farmers in northern and southern Illinois might consider the option.

Allendale Releases 2016 Acreage Survey

Allendale, Inc. estimates US grain and oilseed producers will increase corn and wheat acres, while lowering the number of acres sown to soybean. All three survey totals are higher than USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates. 

Corn planting intentions of 90.431 million acres would be the sixth largest acreage of the past ten years. Allendale’s production estimate would imply a production increase of 31 million over last year’s record.

Soybean planting intentions are seen at 82.575 million acres, the third largest ever. Allendale’s production estimate would be 207 million under last year’s record level due to a return back from record 2015 yields.

Wheat acreage is estimated at 51.769 million acres. This would be the smallest acreage since 1970. Allendale’s production estimate is 53 million under last year’s level.

The results are based on the firm’s 27th annual Producer Acreage Survey. Submissions were made directly by producers in 25 states by phone and online from February 26, 2016 to March 11, 2016.

The United States Department of Agriculture is now surveying some 80,000 producers on their cropping intentions for the year. USDA's 2016 Prospective Plantings report is due March 31st.

Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings Reports Previews

USDA will officially kick off the new year for the spring planted crops when it releases two reports on the last day of the month.

The Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will be released March 31st. Darrel Good says both will help set the tone of the trade for corn and soybeans going forward.

Quote Summary - The Stocks report will be modestly important as it always is for corn. It will give us a reading on how fast we are feeding last year’s crop, but the real information will be in the Prospective Plantings report. It can be a mixed bag. This is because we all know actual plantings deviate from intentions. Certainly, though, when we see the March survey and what farmers are planning this year, it will provide a lot of information about the potential size of the upcoming crops.

The Prospective Plantings report is set up to be very interesting. More than a few acres around the United States need a new home on the spreadsheets. For instance, last fall farmers seeded about 2.8 million fewer acres of winter wheat than they did the previous year. When you couple those acres with what most expect to be fewer Prevent Plant acres, it creates an interesting combination says the University of Illinois agricultural economist.

Quote Summary - On the surface this says, “We’ll have more acres available than we had last year”. What the intentions report will give us a hint at is whether producers are thinking about leaving some acreage idle in 2016 because of the generally low commodity prices. For example, will the winter wheat acres that didn’t get planted go to fallow, or to annual pasture, or will they go to sorghum or an oilseed. Will we see some of the so called fringe areas leave some acreage idled as the numbers would suggest we’ve seen in the past when prices are low. So, that big picture question will be most important in the March plantings report.

Again, the reports will be released March 31st. Last year there were 6.7 million acres of Prevent Plant. That’s on the high side because of the heavy 2015 rainfall. Darrel Good expects this year to be something closer to 3 million acres. And, when you round up to 3 million fewer acres of winter wheat, you get about 6 million float acres that need a home this year either idled, or planted.

Notes from the Illinois Soybean Summit | Rockford Edition

This morning, March 11th, DTN Progressive Farmer meteorologist Bryce Anderson told farmers at the Illinois Soybean Summit weather would cap this year’s potential yields. Todd Gleason is emceeing the event, and asked Anderson if he means it is unlikely for yields to be better than USDA’s trendline.

The Senior Grains Analyst for Farm Futures Magazine was also at the summit. Bryce Knorr told the group to reward market rallies.

The Illinois Soybean Summit took place Friday March 11, 2016 in Rockford.