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Corn Belt Crop Tour 2017 | July 18-22

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If you'd like to contribute a photo and commentary please email tgleason@illinois.edu. Send the photo, nearest town, county, and state location. Also, include a couple of sentences about planting date and conditions.




2018 EPA RFS Still a Biofuel Push

by Scott Irwin & Darrel Good, Agricultural Economists
University of Illinois
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Implications

We analyzed the magnitude of the “push” in production and consumption of biofuels implied by the proposed rulemaking for the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) for 2018 released last week. We find that the proposed standard for 2018 implies a measurable push in the consumption of conventional ethanol since the mandate exceeds expected domestic consumption. The magnitude of that gap is estimated at 640 million gallons for 2018, compared to the estimate for a record large gap in 2017 of 738 million gallons. The gap ranged from 260 to 457 million gallons in 2014–2016. The advanced biofuels mandate is estimated at 684 million gallons in 2018, compared to the estimate of 900 million gallons in 2017 and the actual gap of 438 million gallons in 2016. Our analysis of the proposed rulemaking for 2018 implies:

(1) The EPA under the new Administration is “staying the course” on the implied conventional ethanol mandate with that mandate at the statutory level of 15 billion gallons. If that policy continues and the rate of increase in domestic gasoline consumption does not accelerate more rapidly, there will continue to be a notable conventional ethanol gap beyond 2018.

(2) The push in advance biofuels production and consumption remains large, but is smaller than in 2017 as both the total biofuels mandate dropped and the mandate for undifferentiated advanced biofuels declined marginally. However, the minimum undifferentiated mandate will increase by statute in 2019 to 4.5 billion gallons. So, even though the biodiesel mandate is proposed to stay constant at 2.1 billion gallons for 2019, the total advanced mandate gap could jump another 260 million gallons (4.5 –4.24 billion gallons).

(3) The relatively large conventional ethanol gap implied for 2017 and 2018 suggests that the current discount in the price of D6 (ethanol) RINs relative to D4 (biomass-based diesel) RINs will continue to narrow towards equality (e.g., farmdoc daily, December 4, 2015).

(4) Biomass-based diesel is likely to remain the “marginal gallon” for filling both the conventional and advanced mandate gaps. This means relatively large levels of biodiesel production will continue to be required which in turn will require large levels of fats and oils feedstock.

USDA June 30 Acreage & Grain Stocks Reports


download presentation (pdf)

USDA Acreage Report


USDA Grain Stocks



University of Illinois Updated Supply & Demand Tables
corn
soybean


mid-south farmers learned to raise better soybeans in the mid-1990's



see D.Good / T.Hubbs video above





University of Illinois Hires Row Crops Entomologist

URBANA, IL – Crop Sciences at the University of Illinois is growing, with two new research assistant professors joining the department this fall. The two faculty members, a row crop entomologist and a plant pathologist, will be working directly with growers to address crop production issues across the state. The new entomologist, Nick Seiter, visited the Urbana campus this week.

“These two positions represent our connection with growers and stakeholders,” said Germán Bollero, department head for crop sciences. “We have researchers working on plant pests, but Nick will be our front door with the growers, really taking the pulse of what’s happening out there. He will do the translational work. I’m very excited for him to come.”

In an interview on Tuesday, Seiter discussed his background and his plans for the new position.

ACES Marketing and Communications: Tell us a little about your background.

Seiter: I’m from southeast Indiana originally. I did a bachelor’s and a master’s in entomology at Purdue, working on row crop insects and specifically on the western corn rootworm for my master’s. I went to Clemson University in South Carolina to do a Ph.D. starting in 2011. I developed preliminary management practices for the kudzu bug, which was a new invasive species in soybeans. In 2014, I took a position at the University of Arkansas as an extension entomologist working on various insect pests in cotton, soybeans, sorghum, corn, and occasionally in rice.

ACES: What got you interested in row crop entomology in the first place?

Seiter: I’ve always been interested in science and always liked being outdoors more than in the lab, so agriculture was a good melding of those interests. I started working in row crop entomology as a summer job. I enjoyed it and kept going from there.

ACES: Why Illinois?

Seiter: The fact that it is closer to home is one great reason for me to come here, but also the ag industry here is booming. Illinois is a great place to work in agriculture. It sounds like there’s a tremendous need here since they haven’t had an applied entomologist in this position for a while. It’s an opportunity to build a program and to do some impactful work, I hope.

ACES: Do you have specific projects in mind yet?

Seiter: I think there will be a lot of need to work with western corn rootworm, but western bean cutworm is another one that’s emerging. I think there will be some opportunity to work on that, as well as some of the soybean defoliators, stink bugs, and other pests that come up on a recurring basis.
I like to choose projects based on need, taking a problem-solving approach. That’s what motivates me in my work, that problem-solving aspect. It’s why I’ve worked in applied research throughout my career.

ACES: What are you looking forward to most?

Seiter: I’m looking forward to meeting the other people working in this area, meeting my clientele, and hitting the ground running.

Seiter will seek funding from industry, regional commodity groups, and the USDA to pursue his research plans. He officially joins the department on September 16, 2017. Can’t wait that long? Follow him on Twitter @nick_seiter and stay in touch with the Department of Crop Sciences and the College of ACES to hear about more visits in advance of his start date.