Showing posts with the label late

Corn Yield Implications of Late Planting

University of Illinois Extension Agronomist Emerson Nafziger discusses the impact of late corn planting and how farmers should set about nitrogen applications this spring. He was interviewed May 1, 2019 by Todd Gleason.

The following summary is taken from a May 1, 2019 University of Illinois farmdocDaily article written by agricultural economists Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs.

“The impact of late planting on projections of the U.S. average corn yield is an important question right now due to the very wet conditions so far this spring through much of the Corn Belt. We estimate that the relationship of late planting with corn yield trend deviations is highly non-linear, with a largely flat segment up to 10 percent above average late planting and then a steeply sloped segment for late planting that is 10 percent or more above average. This nicely matches the curvature of planting date effects on corn yield estimated in agronomic field trials (e.g., farmdoc daily, May 20, 2015; Nafziger, 2017). The key then for 2019 is whether late corn planting will be 10 percent or more above average, where the negative impact on corn yield is relatively large. Specifically, when late planting is 10 percent or more above average the chance of corn yield being below trend is 83 percent and the average deviation from trend yield is –6.1 bushels per acre. We analyze topsoil surplus moisture patterns in analog years to 2019 and the analysis suggests late planting this year is likely to be at least 10 percent. The implication is that there is a significantly elevated probability of a below-trend corn yield in 2019 and that present projections of U.S. average corn yield should likely be reduced to 170 bushels per acre or less. It is important to recognize that good summer weather conditions can offset the projected negative impact of late planting on the national average corn yield, but history indicates the probability of this happening is not very high if wet conditions in the Corn Belt persist through mid-May.” - Irwin and Hubbs, University of Illinois

Yield Implications of Delayed Corn Planting

read farmdocDaily article

The late spring has many worried. Others are confident farmers can plant a corn crop in 5 working days. University of Illinois agricultural economists have gone through the USDA data to see if this is true and what impact a late planting season might have on corn yields.

The grand prairie of Illinois is still lying dormant. Its soils are just beginning to reach that magical 50-degree mark. That’s when the corn planters begin to roll. It’s a late start to the season this year, and despite the increased size of the machinery University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Scott Irwin says it’ll still take about as much time to plant the corn crop this season as it did nearly 30 years ago, “If we are operating at our maximum capacity, it takes about fourteen days and when we say days we mean field days not calendar days, to get the job done”.

The reason is simple. There are fewer farmers using bigger machines. So, it is pretty likely it will take a while to get the corn crop in the ground says Irwin, and that has some serious implications, “Our optimum window clearly closes May 1st based on the agronomic trials we have access to and by May 10th we are definitely into the late planting time frame and it is hard to see, unless we get extraordinarily lucky with a planting window opening up, that we are not going to have above average late planted acres. Certainly in Illinois, and I am 100 percent confident of that as you go north where they are still melting the snow.”

ILLINOIS analysis suggests the number of late planted corn acres could 5 to 10% more than usual. If so, the impact on the nation wide corn yield could be between a bushel and quarter to two-and-half bushels to the acre lost.

Too Early to Worry About Late Planting

Farmers have been a bit worried about getting into the field because of rains throughout the Midwest. It looks like those will clear out for the week, mostly, and even if they don’t, there isn’t much to worry about, yet. Todd Gleason has more on when the ag economist at the University of Illinois think late planting impacts the markets and yields.