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Showing posts from September, 2017

Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks Unlikely to Change Corn Market

Friday the United States Department of Agriculture will close out last fall’s harvest and marketing year with the release of the fourth quarter Grain Stocks report. Todd Gleason reports it is not expected to impact the price of corn.

Big Income Years Impact Medicare Premiums 2 years Out

Farmers, business owners, and others on Medicare might find a bigger bill in the mail than expected. Todd Gleason has more on how big income years produce big Medicare premiums two years later.

Margin Protection Insurance | an interview with Gary Schnitkey

Gary Schnitkey assesses the value of Margin Protection Insurance against ARP and RP plans.

Growmark Introduces Simulator to Train Drivers

We often hear about pilots using simulators to train before they actually fly. As of this year Growmark FS is using a simulator to train its sprayer operators.

This month the company invited reporters to its training center in Bloomington, Illinois and after a brief introduction invited them to take a spin in their brand new RoGator. Not a real one, but a simulator that seems pretty darned real even, says Growmark Equipment Manager Erik Wilcox, to those that drive the sprayer for a living.

Wilcox - I’ve had a lot of doubting Thomases come in and say, “this is just a video game and not anything worthwhile” and with each and every one of them I challenge them to just get on and give me the feedback. Every one of them, and I mean every one of them and that’s been about a dozen that have gotten on with me as an expert, have come off and said, “yeah, we are headed in the right direction.”

The simulator currently features road and field courses. It was created as a training module for FS System operators from Ontario to Cairo to practice, study, and enhance their ability, knowledge, and safety skills. That and to cut down on accidents.

Wilcox - We’d like to see the instance of insurance claims say running over crops, we’ll use that as an example, decrease over time as we use this. That is as we get into more row crop simulations. We’d also like to see a decrease in on the road accidents.

The most common of which by the way is for a car to run into the back of the sprayer when it goes to make a left hand turn.

Corn and Soybean Production Outlook in 2017-18

Given the price reaction, the market remains uncertain about the USDA’s September forecast of 2017 corn and soybean production. Todd Gleason has more with the commodity markets specialist from the University of Illinois.

USDA NASS Soybean Objective Yield Pod Weight

Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production report included a very heavy soybean pod weight. Todd Gleason talks with USDA NASS Chief of the Crops Branch about the weight, how it is calculated, and how it might change over time.







DICAMBA | U of Arkansas Takes a Stand



Statement from Dr. Mark Cochran, Vice President-Agriculture for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, on Monsanto’s petition to the Arkansas State Plant Board

First, and most importantly, we stand by the integrity of our scientists and their science, including Dr. Jason Norsworthy, our internationally recognized researcher and his work, and all our weed scientists, as well as other public weed scientists on record in other states.

We are confident in the science that we’ve used to advise the regulatory process in Arkansas.
Even Monsanto recognizes his reputation. Just 48 hours before the petition was filed, the company invited Dr. Norsworthy to present a summary of national drift and volatility research at an academic summit on dicamba that the company is hosting in St. Louis this month. He has declined this invitation.

We will examine every point in this petition and its appearing and disappearing group of supporting exhibits, and over time will respond factually to its major points.

There are several points in the petition we need to address immediately: First, Norsworthy’s findings are anything but an outlier. It is consistent with research work in other states, including that of Kevin Bradley in Missouri, Tom Mueller and Larry Steckel in Tennessee, and elsewhere.

Second, none of our researchers has ever endorsed any product, but sometimes companies use our public comments and statements without our permission.

Based on Monsanto’s allegations, we intend, under the terms of our agreements with Monsanto, to publish all data relevant to our dicamba work over the last few years.

This petition isn’t just about a single herbicide, but it’s an attack on a whole profession – scientists whose careful work is meant to be of benefit to all.

We have made our explanations available to the public, including at field days and through videos of the presentations that were and are still public on the Cooperative Extension Service site, www.uaex.edu. Our public land grant research results are scientifically vetted and valid, and we are pledged to being transparent in our results.

Link to Dicamba in Arkansas - Research and FAQs

Storing Corn and Soybeans in 2017

The current price structure of corn and soybean futures markets indicate positive carry in both markets and raises the question of whether producers should make decisions about grain sales. The decision by producers to store corn or soybeans should be determined by the returns to storage.

There will be a lot of corn around this fall. USDA projects about sixteen-and-half billion bushels when you add what’s leftover from last year to this year’s harvest. It is projecting about four-point-eight billion bushels of soybeans. That’s a lot of both crops, but University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs isn’t worried about running out of space to store it. In fact, the market is urging farmers to go ahead and store both crops at the moment by pricing futures contracts for later in the year a bit higher than the nearby months. The difference is called the carry says Hubbs. Having said that, he says the carry probably doesn’t pay out for commercial storage like you would see for on-farm storage, but there is a nice carry in the market for both crops.

The carry probably doesn’t pay out for commercial storage like you would see for on-farm storage, but there is a nice carry in the market for both crops. - Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois

Harvest bids says Hubbs for corn and soybeans possess a weak basis. This means the difference between the futures price in Chicago and the local cash prices across the nation are generally wider than normal. In central Illinois, for example, that bid is about 7 cents wider than usual. It seems there could be some room for improvement.

When we look at the fundamentals of the corn and soybean markets they’ve been poor says Hubbs, “We are looking at higher yields than expected and large crops in South America. Still, on the corn side, it looks like demand through the 2017/18 marketing year should be really good. Ethanol grind will be really strong, exports should be there especially at these price points, and I believe feed usage should be up across the board. I think there is some strength in corn demand.”

Demand for soybeans may be a slightly different story. However, the domestic crush has been strengthening and exports to China remain super strong. The ag economist explains, “when we think about storing into next year and hedging the storage, basis is a real issue. This is particularly true in Illinois. This year we should see a typical basis pattern for corn because of the supply and demand factors. There may be a lot of basis risk in soybeans. There is really no discernible pattern for spring basis in soybeans. Some years we have a positive basis. This year we had a really weak basis for soybeans. So, I think there is a lot of basis risk when you think about storing and hedging soybeans and you should take that into consideration.”

The uncertainty surrounding corn and soybean yield projections for 2017 says Todd Hubbs may encourage a patient approach to pricing crops. By storing corn and soybeans unpriced, one holds an expectation of prices increasing by more than the cost of owning and storing them. Over the short term, significantly higher prices require a large reduction in the production forecasts by the USDA on September 12 or October 12. Over a longer horizon, higher prices may occur if demand is stronger than currently forecast. Southern hemisphere crop problems could also materialize to provide a price increase.

Sep 4 | WILLAg Newsletter



September 4, 2017

Evidence Favors the South & East Tempering Poorer Corn Belt Yields
  This map shows the August 2017 USDA Crop Production Report state by state corn yields. Rollover each state to reveal the yield. Darker green colors represent higher yields. The table gives more complete detail and breaks down the nation by region. Note the twelve corn belt states in the Midwest are expected to yield 8.4 bushels to the acre less this year than last. The southern states, while representing only about 1.5 billion bushels of the total expected 2017 production of 14.2 billion, show a year over year increase of nearly 14 bushels to the acre.

  USDA will update the Crop Production and WASDE figures Tuesday September 12, 2017. This will be followed at the end of the month by the 4th quarter Grain Stocks report Friday September 29th. Naturally, you can see these numbers shortly after their release on our website at willag.org or by following Todd's twitter account.

Marketing Panels this Week & Next
  Tuesday the 12th (next week) you are invited to review the September Crop Production and WASDE figures at the Champaign County Farm Bureau / University of Illinois Extension building. The Champaign County Marketing Club is hosting a free event starting at 7pm. Todd Gleason will moderate the panel discussion with Curt Kimmel, Chip Nellinger, and Bill Mayer. Check out the date and time in our calendar for full details. That's next week. This week, you'll note Todd and Company are off to Purdue for its Agronomy Day event. Thursday at the Beck Agricultural Center starting at 8am eastern time. During the final session of the day, starting just after lunch, Illinois Ag Economist Todd Hubbs, Purdue's Chris Hurt, and Chuck Shelby from Risk Management Commodities will take the stage for a WILLAg Marketing Panel discussion.

  Click on the links in the calendar below to reveal full details.



Notes from the Farm Progress Show
  A great big THANK YOU goes out to all those that dropped by the University of Illinois tent during last week's Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Illinois. If you missed the stage shows, or didn't hear the Closing Market Report each day, then you should take some time to come up to speed on the latest agricultural news. What follows are few of the stories collected during the week.

How Harvey Will Impact Fuel Supply Infrastructure
  Monday Todd Gleason spoke with Dave Chatterton at the Powerline Group about how Hurricane Harvey is impacting the nation’s fuel supply infrastructure.




Southern States Crop Tour Review
  The corn crop in the south is good. Very good in fact. Todd Gleason talks with Jeremy Wilson from Crop IMS.




Discussing Dicamba Damage with Robb Fraley
  Monsanto’s Robb Fraley dropped by the University of Illinois tent at the Farm Progress Show to talk about dicamba and soybeans. Todd Gleason has more…



Recruiting Higher Ed Ag Students to IL Universities
  Recruiters from Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and the University of Illinois are planning to work together to keep more agricultural students in state. Todd Gleason discussed the reasons why with them during this year’s Farm Progress Show.




House Ag Committee Members on the Farm Bill
  Members of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture held a farm bill listening session at the 2017 Farm Progress Show. Todd Gleason spoke with them afterwards and asked about the compromises which might need to be made to accommodate additional crops and the food & feeding programs.



The New IBRL Building Good for Corn Growers
  The University of Illinois has built a biofuels processing facility on campus to pilot test new energy concepts. Todd Gleason has more with the Director of the Integrated Bioprocessing Research Laboratory.




Trump Admin USDA Nominee Ted McKinney
  Todd Gleason has a conversation with Director Ted McKinney of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture. McKinney has been nominated by President Donald Trump to the post of Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs.




Trade & Farm Bill Issues with @ILCorn
  Illinois corn growers Ken Hartman from Waterloo and Roger Cy from Newman talk with Todd Gleason at the 2017 Farm Progress show about the next farm bill and trade issues.



What’s Next for @FieldView Software
  Big data tools like Climate Corp’s Field View are harnessing crop development and agronomic information from farmers and their equipment. Todd Gleason has more with Rick Myrup.



@NationalCorn Spurlock Discusses NAFA & Farm Bill
  NAFTA and the Farm Bill are the hot topics for NCGA. Todd Gleason has more with the Wesley Spurlock from Texas. He is the president of the National Corn Grower’s Association.



Thanks for Listening
  Finally, thank you for listening to our programs and following our content. You can hear the Closing Market Report on 6 Illinois stations including our home station WILL, WHOW, WTIM, WKEI, WSDR, and WLMD. Our programs are available to hear in full on our website at willag.org, in iTunes, the NPR One app, and Stitcher. You may also stay up to speed by following Todd on twitter.



State by State & Regional Corn Yields

This map shows the August 2017 USDA Crop Production Report state by state corn yields. Rollover each state to reveal the yield. Darker green colors represent higher yields. The table gives more complete detail and breaks down the nation by region. Note the twelve corn belt states in the Midwest are expected to yield 8.4 bushels to the acre less this year than last. The southern states, while representing only about 1.5 billion bushels of the total expected 2017 production of 14.2 billion show a year over year increase of nearly 14 bushels to the acre.

Interviews from the Farm Progress Show

How Harvey Will Impact Fuel Supply Infrastructure
Dave Chatterton, Powerline Group - Champaign, Illinois

Monday Todd Gleason spoke with Dave Chatterton at the Powerline Group about how Hurricane Harvey is impacting the nation’s fuel supply infrastructure.


Southern States Crop Tour Review
Jeremy Wilson, Crop IMS - Effingham, Illinois

The corn crop in the south is good. Very good in fact. Todd Gleason talks with Jeremy Wilson from Crop IMS.


Discussing Dicamba Damage with Robb Fraley
Robb Fraley, Monsanto Company - St. Louis, Missouri Doug Maxwell, Crops Researcher - University of Illinois

Monsanto’s Robb Fraley dropped by the University of Illinois tent at the Farm Progress Show to talk about dicamba and soybeans. Todd Gleason has more…


Recruiting Higher Ed Ag Students to Illinois Universities

Recruiters from Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and the University of Illinois are planning to work together to keep more agricultural students in state. Todd Gleason discussed the reasons why with them during this year’s Farm Progress Show.


House Ag Committee Members on the Farm Bill
Mike Conaway - U.S. House of Representatives - State of Texas
Rodney Davis - U.S. House of Representatives - State of Illinois
G.T. Thompson - U.S. House of Representatives - State of Pennsylvania

Members of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture held a farm bill listening session at the 2017 Farm Progress Show. Todd Gleason spoke with them afterwards and asked about the compromises which might need to be made to accommodate additional crops and the food & feeding programs.


The New IBRL Building Good for Corn Growers
Vijay Singh, Director IBRL & Agricultural Engineer - University of Illinois

The University of Illinois has built a biofuels processing facility on campus to pilot test new energy concepts. Todd Gleason has more with the Director of the Integrated Bioprocessing Research Laboratory.


Trump Admin USDA Under Secretary Nominee Ted McKinney
Ted McKinney, Director Indiana State Department of Agriculture

Todd Gleason has a conversation with Director Ted McKinney of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture. McKinney has been nominated by President Donald Trump to the post of Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs.


Trade & Farm Bill Issues with @ILCorn
Ken Hartman, Newly Elected NCGA Board Member
Roger Sy, Treasurer - Illinois Corn Marketing Board

Illinois corn growers Ken Hartman from Waterloo and Roger Cy from Newman talk with Todd Gleason at the 2017 Farm Progress show about the next farm bill and trade issues.

What’s Next for @FieldView Software
Rick Myrup, Field View - Climate Corp

Big data tools like Climate Corp’s Field View are harnessing crop development and agronomic information from farmers and their equipment. Todd Gleason has more with Rick Myrup.


@NationalCorn Spurlock Discusses NAFA & Farm Bill
Wesley Sprulock, President National Corn Growers Association

NAFTA and the Farm Bill are the hot topics for NCGA. Todd Gleason has more with the Wesley Spurlock from Texas. He is the president of the National Corn Grower’s Association.