Posts

Showing posts with the label September

Exploring Corn & Soybean Stocks

Last week’s Grain Stocks report should reduce the ending stocks for both corn and soybeans this month.

USDA’s quarterly grain stocks estimate suggests there are fewer bushels of corn and soybeans leftover from last year than have been reported so far. University of Illinois Commodity Grain Markets Specialist Todd Hubbs says corn is off by 56 million bushels and soybeans are down 44 million, “I’d say one thing out of the stocks report is the idea that corn and soybean consumption is starting to get stronger as we move through the year. This is especially the case in some areas we didn’t see before like feed. For the soybean ending stocks, USDA adjusted 2016 production. This isn’t a shocker, but it did change the balance sheet.”

I’d say one thing out of the stocks report is the idea that corn and soybean consumption is starting to get stronger as we move through the year. This is especially the case in some areas we didn’t see before like feed.

Having said that, Hubbs admits the 2016/17 projected carryouts for corn and soybeans remain very large. It’s possible to roll forward the September grain stocks report to forward figure the October USDA Supply & Demand table… or at least some of the adjustment. When you do that it shows corn carry out at 2.295 billion bushels and soybean ending stocks at 301 million. It is a matter then, says, Hubbs, of laying off the heavy supply-side against growing consumption - which for the moment is hampered by low river water levels that have been causing transportation problems to the Gulf of Mexico. Hubbs says, “The strong demand, the strong consumption, that we’ve been seeing is a good sign as we move through the next marketing year if we can keep it up. Right now we are suffering under these supply and transportation issues.”

It’s not to say a bullish market is around the corner, but that demand should provide a series of marketing opportunities over the coming months.

Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks Unlikely to Change Corn Market

Friday the United States Department of Agriculture will close out last fall’s harvest and marketing year with the release of the fourth quarter Grain Stocks report. Todd Gleason reports it is not expected to impact the price of corn.

USDA NASS Soybean Objective Yield Pod Weight

Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production report included a very heavy soybean pod weight. Todd Gleason talks with USDA NASS Chief of the Crops Branch about the weight, how it is calculated, and how it might change over time.







USDA Reports | September 12, 2016

USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports released 11am central Monday September 12, 2016. Visit our USDA Reports page for full details.


Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 11 percent from last year but down less than one percent from the August forecast. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 174.4 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from the August forecast but up 6 bushels from 2015. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 86.6 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast, but up 7 percent from 2015.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.20 billion bushels, up 3 percent from August and up 7 percent from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record 50.6 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels from last month and up 2.6 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 83.0 million acres, unchanged from August but up 1 percent from 2015.

Selected States Yield

CORN
Aug    Sep     State
200.0  200.0  Illinois
187.0  185.0  Indiana
198.0  196.0  Iowa
184.0  184.0  Minnesota
187.0  184.0  Nebraska
145.0  151.0  Kansas
163.0  162.0  Ohio
147.0  142.0  South Dakota
135.0  135.0  North Dakota

SOYBEAN
Aug    Sep     State
 57.0   61.0    Illinois
 55.0   58.0    Indiana
 57.0   58.0    Iowa
 47.0   49.0    Minnesota
 59.0   59.0    Nebraska
 40.0   44.0    Kansas
 52.0   53.0    Ohio
 42.0   43.0    South Dakota
 33.0   35.0    North Dakota