Showing posts with the label volatility

Riding the Feeder Cattle Roller Coaster

by Paul Peterson - University of Illinois

Futures prices were limit-down for 5 days in a row in mid-December 2014, the most limit-move days in a livestock contract since the BSE (mad cow) selloff in December 2003. Daily price limits in feeder cattle futures were increased from 3 cents per pound ($3/cwt) to 4½ cents per pound ($4.50/cwt), with provisions for additional expansions if needed; complete details are presented here.

For the 22 trading days in December 2014, the January 2015 feeder cattle futures contract had 10 days with price moves up or down of 3 cents per pound or more. And on the first trading day of January 2015, prices closed limit-up at the new 4½ cent daily limit, starting out the New Year with a bang (Figure 1). In contrast, February 2015 live cattle futures have had just 2 limit days (both down) since December 1, and February 2015 hog futures have had none.

So why have feeder cattle prices been so volatile lately? It helps to think about feeder cattle prices as the "shock absorber" between fed cattle prices on one end, and corn prices on the other. When buying feeder cattle, feedlots look at the gross feeding margin, which is