Rain from Missouri to Ohio has kept farmers from planting part of this year’s soybean crop, but nobody knows for sure - yet - just how many acres have been idled.
USDA has a term for land farmers planned to, but failed to sow because of the weather. It is “prevent plant”. This year rain has prevented farmers throughout the Midwest from planting some acres of soybeans. USDA has one figure already, but it is surveying farmers in Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas to see if it needs to be updated. The figure is not for prevent plant, but rather for planted acreage. This year that is expected to be a record high 85.1 million acres. But there has been a lot of rain and the number will probably change. Gary Schnitkey wanted to know if history could act as a guide to how many acres might eventually not be planted to soybean.
Quote Summary - Just to give you a feel, from 1996 through 2014 on average there were 759 thousand prevented plant acres for soybeans in the U.S. There were four years when this number topped a million acres. The highest was 2013 at 1.69 million acres
The other three years in which prevent plant exceeded one million acres for soybean include 2001, 2010, and 2011.
Quote Summary - The common thing in all those years was either North Dakota, South Dakota, or Minnesota or some combination of the three having a large number of prevent plant soybean acres. Following those three it was Minnesota. The rank order is South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, and then Missouri. These are typically the states you look at for large numbers of soybean acres going to prevent plant.
The Dakota’s and Minnesota are not the problem this year. It leaves, mostly, Missouri. And, historically, the highest number of soybean prevent plant acres in this one state is only 200,000.
Quote Summary - We are looking at something larger than that. The largest we’ve ever seen in the United States for a single is 450 thousand. So if we see something over half-a-million acres in Missouri, which we could well see, that would be record setting and a million would be way out there.
USDA will update the soybean acreage figures for Missouri, Kansas, and Arkansas August 12th along with the release of the Crop Production report and the monthly supply and demand tables.