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Farm Program Decision & WILLAg Outlook Panels Scheduled
Book your WILLAg event today for this fall or winter. We'll be glad to work with you to set up a WILLAg Panel of analysts to discuss the commodity markets, arrange for University of Illinois campus based agricultural specialists in economics, crops, or livestock, or simply to come speak to your group or organization. Contact Todd Gleason for complete details.
Todd E. Gleason, Farm Broadcaster
College of ACES / Univesity of Illinois Extension
tgleason@illinois.edu or (217) 333-9697
Todd E. Gleason, Farm Broadcaster
College of ACES / Univesity of Illinois Extension
tgleason@illinois.edu or (217) 333-9697
Click on an event for complete details...
August Corn Estimates
Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour results are plotted here against the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistic Service corn yield projections and the Pro Farmer Newsletter estimates. USDA NASS estimates are as of August 1, 2014 and the Pro Farmer crop tour yields were taken the week beginning Monday August 18. The Pro Farmer estimates were made August 22, 2014.
The final Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour estimates tallied corn and soybean yields across seven Midwestern states stretching through the primary corn growing counties in the United States. The tour is watched closely by those in the grain and oilseed trade. However, it should be noted USDA gathers much more objective and survey based information about the size of U.S. crops.
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2014 Midwest Pro Farmer Tour Results
Corn Soybean State
182.11 1342.42 Ohio
185.03 1220.79 Indiana
196.96 1299.17 Illinois
178.75 1173.59 Iowa
163.77 1103.26 Nebraska
170.76 1031.54 Minnesota
152.71 1057.80 South Dakota
185.03 1220.79 Indiana
196.96 1299.17 Illinois
178.75 1173.59 Iowa
163.77 1103.26 Nebraska
170.76 1031.54 Minnesota
152.71 1057.80 South Dakota
ARC-CO and PLC Payment Indicator Using August WASDE U.S. Yield and Price
by Carl Zulauf, The Ohio State University & Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
The 2014 farm bill gives Farm Service Agency (FSA) farm owners the option to choose their crop program for the 2014 through 2018 crop years. A factor, perhaps key factor that will influence this decision is the payment by the program choices for the 2014 crop year. This article uses the just released U.S. yield and price estimates in the August 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) to calculate an indicator of potential payments by the Agriculture Revenue Coverage - county program (ARC-CO) and the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. The indicator estimates are for the 2014 crop year for barley, corn, oats, long grain rice, medium (and short) grain rice, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat. These are indicator estimates because they use U.S. yield not county yield or farm payment yield, as ARC-CO and PLC use, respectively. AR-CO payments, for example, will vary across counties, with some counties having no payments due to high yields and some counties having large payments due to low yields. Thus, this article is not estimating payments that an individual FSA farm owner would receive. Nevertheless, the indicator estimates using U.S. yields should help frame questions and perspectives for FSA farm owners regarding program choices.
Calculation of Estimated Program Payments
ARC-CO makes payments when county revenue for the crop year is less than 86% of the county's benchmark revenue. ARC-CO pays when actual revenue is between 76% and 86% of benchmark revenue. PLC makes payments when the U.S. crop year average price is less than the crop's reference price. The reference price is