The Footprint of Chinese Demand for U.S. Soybeans

One out of every four bushels of soybeans harvested by U.S. farmers last fall, if the trend continues, will be shipped to China.



Two University of Illinois agricultural economists have measured the footprint of Chinese demand for soybeans. John Newton, along with Todd Kuethe (keeth-ee), say this one nation takes 13 bushels from every acre of soybeans produced in the United States.

Quote Summary - The Chinese are bringing in more than a billion bushels of soybeans a year from the United States. That’s more than the states of Illinois and Iowa produced combined. Their total needs from around the world amount to more than 60 million acres. Twenty-one million of those come from the U.S. This is more soybean acres than can be found in Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan. The Chinese have a very large footprint in the U.S. soybean market.

Large today, but twenty years ago China imported just 18 million bushels of soybeans from the United States, or 2 percent of U.S. soybean exports. Demand from this one nation grew from that meager amount to more than a billion bushels, 65 percent of the exports, because of double digit growth in its economy. This growth has slowed, and for some it is now a caution sign…but not for John Newton, yet.

Quote Summary - The world bank is projecting the Chinese economy is going to grow at about 6.9 to 7.4 percent through 2017. This is greater than the United States. Their economy is still growing at a significant rate. They have just plateaued some in recent years. So, you look at the growth rate in the Chinese economy as one indicator. Another indicator is crushing margins in China. Part of the reason they’ve increased their consumption of U.S. soybeans is because they’ve increased crushing capacity in mainland China. So long as their crushing margins are favorable it is still possible to bring U.S. soybeans to China and crush them.

These projections support China maintaining soybean consumption at or above current levels.

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Darrel Good on the March 31 Reports

USDA Extends Farm Bill Sign Up One Week

The United States Department of Agriculture has extended the farm bill sign up period, again. A month ago USDA opted to allow the two farm bill deadlines to be consolidated into one ending date. It was scheduled to close Tuesday March 31st.

The sign up period has been extended a full week says U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack. The deadline is now April 7th.

The secretary reports 98 percent of farm land owners have updated information needed to calculate payments made under the new farm programs, but only 90 percent of the farms are enrolled.

Those farms not enrolled by the deadline will receive no 2014 crop year payments and the farm will default to the Price Loss Coverage enrollment option for the 2015 through 2018 crop years.
Sign up can be completed at local Farm Service Agency offices.

Winter Feeding & the Cow Calf Operation

Winter nutrition for the cow calf operation is key. It may be the best opportunity to positively affect real income.

This was the message heard during the annual Beef & Beyond conference. It was clear and concise. The winter feeding program at a cow calf operation separates profitable farms from less profitable operations. It depends a lot on stored feed says University of Illinois Beef Cattle Specialist Dan Shike.

Quote Summary - How much stored feed are they having to purchase and what is their winter feeding program. We would like to graze as many days as we can, but if we can’t graze we have to feed them something. What’s the least cost approach.

Least cost only works if the cows meet acceptable performance standards. These are to maintain appropriate body condition, to calve once a year, and to wean off as heavy a calf as possible, but there’s more.

Quote Summary - We’ve not given much consideration in the past to the fetus. We’ve focused on the cow. We’ve focused on the calf that is nursing on her, but she’s also been bred and has a developing fetus inside of her. So, the nutrition management of the cow impacts the development of the fetus. There is plenty of data from human epidemiological studies and other animal models that maternal nutrition, or nutrition during gestation, has lifelong impacts on the progeny.

The results with beef cattle are mixed in this area of study and varies from region to region mostly as it relates to available forages. This seems obvious, but the clear message is if the cows are in poor body condition and not being fed enough there is a great deal of risk to hurting the calf. Under winter feedlot conditions this means the properly managed cow produces a calf which eventually yields better marbling. Heifer calves kept for breeding benefit from good nutrition in the womb, too. They weigh more, mature earlier, and have better conception rates.

Quote Summary - All these benefits come later in life at a year or two of age. It was set when the fetus was 3 to 4 months of age during mid-to-late gestation. All because the cow was in good body condition. A condition score of 5 or 6. On the flip side, a short term restriction in nutrition of a cow already in good condition isn’t particularly harmful. If the cow is already thin, say a body condition score of 4 or less, you should anticipate you’re restricting the fetus. If she is in good condition, even if her nutrition is restricted, the cow will mobilize body reserves to supply the appropriate nutrients to the fetus.

The body condition score runs from one to nine with scores of five or six considered optimum. Scores of eight or nine are too fat, scores below four are too thin.