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EPA Administrator McCarthy Speech to Agriculture

SPEECH EXCERPTS from U.S. EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy's July 10, 2014 speech on the Clean Water Act proposal that United States agricultural interest fear will broaden the 'navigable waters' definition leading to greater governmental regulation of farm ditches, etc.
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Today, I’m here to talk about our Clean Water Act proposal, which was called for by the Supreme Court and by numerous state organizations, as well as numerous agriculture stakeholder groups. The aim of this proposal is clear: to clear up legal confusion and protect waters that are vital to our health, using sound science so that EPA can get its job done. It is crucial that we keep farmers and the ag industry as a whole doing what they do best: producing the food, fuel, and fiber that provide for our American way of life. The kinds of water bodies we’ll protect provide drinking water to 1 in 3 Americans.
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We agree that people have a right to healthy land and clean water, so we have to make sure people understand that the practices we put in place are reasonable and consistently applied. That’s how we make sure everyone is playing by the same rules, and that everyone can fully work their farms and ranches with confidence and certainty. All of us rely on science and accurate facts. Farmers need to know what to plant and when to plant it, and EPA needs to know how to protect our precious water resources for everyone to enjoy. So it’s great to be here to talk facts and roll up our sleeves to work together to benefit producers and public health.
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Yesterday, we heard very clearly some of the concerns about our proposed rule. Let me clear up some of that: We heard fears that EPA is regulating groundwater. This is not true; groundwater regulations do and will fall under the purview of the states. EPA is not regulating all activities in floodplains, or every puddle, dry wash, and erosional feature. In fact, we’re doing just the opposite. If cattle cross a wet field – let them. That’s a normal farming practice, and all normal farming practices are still exempt. The bottom line is – if you didn’t need a permit before this proposed rule, you won’t need one when it’s finalized.
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So let’s talk about the interpretive rule and the 56 conservation practices that are good for production and good for water quality. That rule seems to have generated lots of confusion. So, why did we want to list out those 56 practices? Those 56 are an attempt to clear the path for slam dunk conservation practices. We did not narrow exemptions; those 56 are a subset to the existing exemptions for normal farming, ranching, and silviculture. No one should have to think twice about taking advantage of these conservation practices.

Some mistakenly think that this means additional federal standards with which to comply, but that’s wrong. Conservation practice standards are not federal regulatory standards. They just provide a roadmap for producers to make sure they’re squeezing all they can out of their practice.

New exemptions are “self-implementing,” which means no one needs to notify or get approval from EPA or the Corps. There’s no need to double check with anyone at any time. I’m sure farmers agree that the best discussion on jurisdictional determinations is one that never needs to happen. We added 56 exemptions because we want to boost conservation without boosting bureaucracy. Is the interpretive rule the best way to do that? Let’s figure that out together. I am about outcomes, not process. 

What if this is an 173.6 bpa year?

This week University of Illinois ag economist Scott Irwin and Darrel Good have posted an article to the farmdocdaily website. It poises the question of just how big a really big United States corn yield could become. The answer, based on past history, is 173.6 bushels to the acre. 

That's the average bpa deviation of the previous 6 largest deviations from trend yield since 1960. Those are shown in the included graph. The largest percentage deviation in the trend came in 1972 at 15.2 percent. 

While the crop conditions reported by USDA each Monday support the potential for such a record setting national average yield for corn, the two caution this year does not following the normal pattern of the other six. The normal pattern is for near or just above normal rainfall and lower than average temperatures in the three I states; Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. However, the number one corn producing state of those three (and the nation), Iowa, had nearly twice the June rain. 

"There is no historical precedent in the last five decades for an extremely high corn yield relative to trend (1972, 1979, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1994, 2004, and 2009) when Illinois, Indiana, or Iowa had such an extreme amount of precipitation during June" write the two ILLINOIS agricultural number crunchers. They add, "the same conclusion also holds when other major corn-producing states are included in the analysis". 

It doesn't mean such an exception won't occur, but rather that it has not happened before. History points to record yields with cooler, wetter weather runs through August. 

Risky Business Study with Cargill's Greg Page

A group of business people and political leaders have released a project called Risky Business. University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason has more on the study and how it might be used in the Midwest to assess and mitigate the financial risk associated with climate change with Cargill's Chairman of the Board Greg Page.

Click on the arrow below to listen to the interview. You may visit www.riskybusiness.org for more complete details of the study.



Check out the corn and soybean field conditions in this little video from the Gleason Farms in Logan County, Illinois. The corn looks, well, GREAT - and the soybeans are flowering! 


June 30, 2014

USDA released the annual Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports at 11am central time today.




ACREAGE

Corn Planted Acreage Down 4 Percent from 2013
Soybean Acreage Up 11 Percent
All Wheat Acreage Up Less Than 1 Percent
All Cotton Acreage Up 9 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2014 is estimated at 91.6 million
acres, down 4 percent from last year. This represents the lowest planted
acreage in the United States since 2010; however, this is the fifth largest
corn acreage in the United States since 1944.

Soybean planted area for 2014 is estimated at a record high 84.8 million
acres, up 11 percent from last year. Area for harvest, at 84.1 million acres,
is up 11 percent from 2013 and will be a record high by more than 7.4 million
acres, if realized. Record high planted acreage is estimated in Michigan,
Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South
Dakota, and Wisconsin.


GRAIN STOCKS

Corn Stocks Up 39 Percent from June 2013
Soybean Stocks Down 7 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 18 Percent

Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 3.85 billion bushels, up
39 percent from June 1, 2013. Of the total stocks, 1.86 billion bushels are
stored on farms, up 48 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at
1.99 billion bushels, are up 32 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2014
indicated disappearance is 3.15 billion bushels, compared with 2.63 billion
bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 405 million bushels,
down 7 percent from June 1, 2013. On-farm stocks totaled 109 million bushels,
down 36 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 296 million bushels, are
up 12 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the
March - May 2014 quarter totaled 589 million bushels, up 4 percent from the
same period a year earlier.

Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled
590 million bushels, down 18 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are
estimated at 97.0 million bushels, down 19 percent from last year. Off-farm
stocks, at 493 million bushels, are down 18 percent from a year ago. The
March - May 2014 indicated disappearance is 467 million bushels, down
10 percent from the same period a year earlier.




Here are some other items of interest from the USDA Executive Summary.

The Change in Acreage by Crop (2013 to 2014)



2014 Principal Crops Planted
Acres (000) & Change from Prospective Plantings by state



U.S. Principal Crop Acres





Our website is also a great place to get updates. The address is www.willag.org. Todd's @commodityweek Twitter feed will be posted directly into the site and it will give a quick, if incomplete, review of the figures. The detailed numbers will be posted into the USDA Reports page on our online home.

Finally, thank you very much to all those helping to make our end of the fiscal year fund drive a great success. WILL is a public radio station and your financial support is vital. If you haven't yet, or simply would like to help support our agricultural programs on the station, including this newsletter, please do make a contribution. When you fill out the online forms be sure to write "in support of agriculture" in the comments section.

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Chris Hurt says Same Pounds of Pork & Same Corn Fed

Friday USDA released the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. During an interview late Friday afternoon Purdue Extension Ag Economist Chris Hurt said the figures show, as it relates to the amount of corn consumed by the nation's hog herd, the lower number of animals coming to market now because of PEDv is offset by heavier weights. Essentially, Hurt says feeding fewer pigs to heavier weights consumes about the same amount of corn (he thinks) and produces about the same amount of pork.



You may read Chris Hurt's thoughts on the livestock market once a month in The Weekly Outlook posted to the FarmDocDaily website during the noon hour on Mondays.

USDA June 2014 Grain Stocks & Acreage Reports

Grain Stocks

USDA June Estimate Average Ranges June 2013 March 2014
Corn 3,723 3,046-4,050 2,766 7,006
Soybean 382 334-440 435 992
Wheat 597 561-633 718 1,056

Acreage

USDA June Estimate Average Range March 2014 2013
Corn 91.709 91.00-92.50 91.691 95.365
Soybean 82.213 81.30-84.00 81.493 76.533
All Wheat 55.777 54.80-56.50 55.815 56.156
    Spring 11.937 11.30-12.20 12.009 11.596
    Durum  1.795   1.69- 1.90   1.799   1.470

Wheat Head Scab in SRW Crop


The nation's wheat crop is suffering from too much rainfall. It is causing harvest delays in the hard red winter wheat growing regions of the southwestern United States, and the development of disease issues in the southern Illinois soft red winter wheat crop.

Agronomy Day August 14, 2014

Visit the Agronomy Day Home Page now!

Art on the Roadside

Photographers call the time before sunset the golden hour. The light bends and shimmers across the landscape from a very low angle. It is a beautiful time of day to take pictures. 




You might say the sun paints the planet with golden light.



These photos were taken during my evening walk Sunday June 15, 2014 near my childhood home outside Elkhart, Illinois. They were shot facing the southeast with the sun directly at my back.


Nature does the best job of painting the landscape, however an app called Waterlogue helped me create an interesting artistic view of the art on the roadside.

ILLINOIS' Darrel Good on June WASDE

USDA WASDE Report

Hog Prices Take Big Drop: What Next?

Traders in Chicago have a better handle on a disease in the nation’s hog herd. Lean hog futures have responded by moving lower. Purdue Ag Economist Chris Hurt has more on why the price of pork is on the decline.

Visit a Grain Elevator on a Sunday Afternoon

Some Sunday this summer you should make the drive to Atlanta, Illinois and tour the old grain elevator. It stopped taking in corn long ago and sat unused for years. Then the townsfolk decided, in the mid 1990’s, to refurbish the J. H. Hawes Grain elevator. Today it is a museum on the registry of historical places in the United States. You can learn more on the museum website.
 

The J. H. Hawes Grain Elevator and Musuem is open to visitors from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. every Sunday afternoon in June, July, and August. Here are few facts and figures about the machinery in the elevator.

  • the old gas engine that operates the elevator runs at 400 r-p-m and puts out 10 horsepower
  • the pulley system inside the building is driven by a single rope 280 feet long
  • the total capacity of the elevator is twenty-nine thousand bushels

All About PEDv

Skype Capable of Real Time Language Translation


Skype, now owned by Microsoft, may soon be able to translate speech in real time. The company demoed this new kind of magic on stage. It would allow people to converse in their native (but different) languages.

Skype is one of my favorite broadcast tools. I use it every day and cannot wait to see how it might handle a conversation translation about on farm conditions in China, Ukraine, Argentina, and Brazil.

The Last Post & Red Poppies

Flying Old Glory

Memorial Day we honor and remember those that gave their lives for freedom. Please remember to fly the U.S. flag at half staff until noon. Thee United States Flag Code lays out in detail when and how the flag is to be displayed along with other information. What follows is a short excerpt from the code.


The Flag Code — History and Text

On June 22, 1942, President Franklin D. Roosevelt approved House Joint Resolution 303 codifying the existing customs and rules governing the display and use of the flag of the United States by civilians. Amendents were approved on December 22nd of that year. The law included provisions of the code adopted by the National Flag Conference, held in Washington, D.C. on June 14, 1923, with certain amendments and additions. The Code was reenacted, with minor amendments, as part of the Bicentennial celebration. In the 105th Congress, the Flag Code was removed from title 36 of the United States Code and recodified as part of title 4.


Title 4 United States Code (excerpt)

6. Time and Occasions for Display.

  (a) It is the universal custom to display the flag only from sunrise to sunset on buildings and on stationary flagstaffs in the open. However, when a patriotic effect is desired, the flag may be displayed 24 hours a day if properly illuminated during the hours of darkness.

  (b) The flag should be hoisted briskly and lowered ceremoniously.

  (c) The flag should not be displayed on days when the weather is inclement, except when an all-weather flag is displayed.

  (d) The flag should be displayed on all days, especially on...

  • New Year’s Day,  January 1 
  • Inauguration Day, January 20 
  • Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday, the third Monday in January 
  • Lincoln’ s Birthday, February 12
  • Washington’ s Birthday, third Monday in February
  • Easter Sunday (variable)
  • Mother’s Day, second Sunday in May
  • Armed Forces Day, third Saturday in May
  • Memorial Day (half-staff until noon), the last Monday in May
  • Flag Day, June 14; Independence Day, July 4
  • Labor Day, first Monday in September
  • Constitution Day, September 17
  • Columbus Day, second Monday in October
  • Navy Day, October 27
  • Veterans Day, November 11
  • Thanksgiving Day, fourth Thursday in November
  • Christmas Day, December 25
  • and such other days as may be proclaimed by the President of the United States
  • the birthdays of States (date of admission)
  • and on State holidays

  (e) The flag should be displayed daily on or near the main administration building of every public institution.

  (f) The flag should be displayed in or near every polling place on election days.

  (g) The flag should be displayed during school days in or near every schoolhouse.

Accuracy of USDA Forecasts of Corn Ending Stocks

Two University of Illinois ag economist have looked at the accuracy of USDA forecasts of corn ending stocks. You may read the full report on the accuracy of USDA ending stocks for corn on the Farm Doc Daily website. The post is written by Darrel Good and Scott Irwin.

In it the two summarize the accuracy of WASDE forecasts of marketing year ending stocks of U.S. corn from 1990 to last year’s harvest by marketing year. They also discuss the implications for the May 2014 WASDE ending stocks estimates that was just released by USDA.   Three main implications emerge.  First they report, WASDE ending stocks projections for U.S. corn across the forecasting cycle are basically unbiased, if having a slight tendency towards under-estimation of the final number. Second, the first WASDE estimate of ending stocks for U.S. corn, always released in May before harvest, has a large potential range of errors.  This is sensible since the ending stocks forecast at this early point in the forecasting cycle reflects both production and usage errors.  Third, there is a clear tendency for the USDA to "smooth" the changes in projections of year ending stocks later in the forecast cycle.

Here’s the bottom  line part for the price of old crop corn.

This tendency suggests the WASDE ending stocks forecast for the 2013-14 marketing year released earlier this month (1.146 billion bushels to be left in the bin this fall) may be over-estimated.  Intriguingly, this is the reverse of current market expectations that year ending stocks for 2013-14 will exceed the current USDA forecast. It is a price positive change.

Now let’s delve further into the report. Again the 2013-14 marketing year ending stocks are now forecast at 1.146 billion bushels.  Historical forecast errors suggest there is a 50 percent probability actual year ending stocks will be between 1.121 billion and 1.267 billion bushels.  There has been a slight bias towards under-estimating year ending stocks in this report in the past, with an average error of 49 million bushels.  This bias seems to support the market's expectation that USDA has over-estimated marketing year exports, and therefore, under-estimated year-ending stocks.

This last segment supports trade sentiment of a higher ending stocks number for corn and this would put pressure on price to go lower.

However, some previous University of Illinois analysis suggests errors in forecasting year ending stocks late in the marketing year are more highly correlated with errors in forecasts of feed and residual use. There is a positive relationship between the change in the ending stocks forecast in May and the error in the May forecast. If the May ending stocks number goes up, it is more likely to be an associated with an even larger final ending stocks figure. The same is true if it goes down. If the April to May WASDE ending stocks figure falls, then it is associated with an even smaller final ending stocks figure.

While the fit is not great, the relationship is interesting write Darrel Good and Scott Irwin. You may read their work on the Farm Doc Daily website.

ILLINOIS' Darrel Good Not Convinced Corn Prices Should Go Lower



USDA’s latest projections raised corn exports by one-hundred-fifty million bushels. It means shippers will need to load-out a lot of corn over the next three months says University of Illinois Ag Economist Darrel Good.

The ILLINOIS number cruncher wrote about corn consumption in his May 12, 2014 Weekly Outlook, "Although other factors may have contributed, corn prices declined following the release of the new WASDE ending stocks projections. Given the surprisingly large level of consumption of U.S corn that has unfolded this year and planting season weather that may pose a threat to both planted acreage and yield in some areas, the price weakness appears to be premature".

 Read more from Darrel Good's article on the FarmDocDaily website.

Political Support for Bio-Diesel



Support for biodiesel made from soybeans is coming to a head in Washington, D.C. Farmers, politicians, and biodiesel producers want continued support of the renewable fuel.