How Much Would a Corn Acre in 2015 Make

The ag economists at ILLINOIS have done an interesting exercise to see how much an acre of corn might gross in 2015. Or maybe it might be better explained as what would happen in 2015 if this year was like 1979.



Or what if it were like 2012, or 1983, or 1995, or just pick a year. The idea is to give farmers some hard data on how variable gross revenue from a corn acre is over time by moving that time into 2015. So that’s what U of I ag economists Gary Schnitkey did.

He wanted to look and see what gross revenues would be like for 2015 considering crop revenue, crop insurance, government payments, and price risk. The goal was to know under what conditions would a corn acre produce higher gross revenues this year?

The question then is, “In 2015 what would revenue be like this year if a year like 1972 happened?”.

"When we looked at it, 50% of the revenues were above and 50% of the revenues were below $825 per acre."

Schnitkey put those all into a table on the Farm Doc Daily website from 1972 to 2014. It shows how much of gross revenue would come from price x yield, crop insurance, and government payments.

At $825 most $300 an acre cash rented farms in central Illinois would lose money. Over the span of the years this would happen about 75% of the time and a big yield does not solve the problem - it takes higher prices from some other force. You may read the “Gross Revenues in 2015” article on the Farm Doc Daily website.

The Next Mile Post for Soybeans & the Crush

Farmers and the trade are very concerned the price of soybeans will fade over the next six months.

There are a couple of mile posts indicators most will be watching as it relates to the production of soybeans. University of Illinois Ag Economist John Newton says the next one up is the Prospective Plantings report due March 31st from the United States of Department of Agriculture.

Quote Summary - The Prospective Plantings report is a big one. It will give us an idea of how many acres of soybeans U.S. farmers expect to sow this spring. I’m also going to continue to watch the domestic soybean crush and U.S. soybean exports. The nation is on pace to export a record volume this year and USDA maintains this number will increase next year. This would be back to back record soybean export years and certainly worth monitoring. Can the world consume soybeans and the current level? If this is possible, then that should provide some price floor, even some positive price pressure from where we are today.

Exports are reported weekly by USDA and starting in August the ag department will begin reporting the soybean crush totals monthly. The agency is picking up and tweaking a discontinued Census Bureau report.

Quote Summary - The monthly numbers will aid the trade in monitoring the pace of the domestic soybean crush. Another item to keep in mind is the importance of the RFS (Renewable Fuel Standards). It may, at some point, cause soybeans to be crushed for oil. This would have implications for soybean meal and soybean meal prices and this may offset corn fed in the residual balance sheets. These are all things to watch. Some are long run and some are short run; the pace of consumption and soybean crush being the two short run things I’m watching.

You may read more from the University of Illinois ag economists on the Farm Doc Daily website. A new article is posted there each business day of the year.

Soybeans + Numbers

Those listening to the markets every day know there is a big difference between the number of acres the trade thinks will be planted to soybeans and the number of acres USDA is so far projecting. These aren’t as far apart as you might think and there may even be some positive wiggle room in them.



The trade has long thought U.S. farmers will plant about 86 million acres of soybeans. USDA thinks they’ll plant 83 and half million. Because USDA is using

Estimated 2014 ARC County Payments

Farmers throughout the nation are deciding which of the new farm programs to take. Another piece of that puzzle was put into place when USDA released the county wide corn and soybean yields late last month. These can be used to estimate some of the 2014 farm program payments.



County wide yields as calculated by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service along with the estimated season's average cash price - the marketing year average - can be used to forward figure 2014 ARC County payments. It is possible therefore to know

2015 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum

Last week the United States Department of Agriculture presented its view of the commodity markets.



Thursday USDA Acting Chief Economist Robert Johansson made a presentation on the current agricultural landscape during the 2015 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Interestingly, he set the tone by showing how commodity prices have been trending downward for more than 60 years.

USDA says ARC/PLC Sign Up Winter 2015

Friday the United States Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency made a series of announcements related to the new farm programs' signup period. Farmers will make final irrevocable decisions between the ARC & PLC programs sometime after January 1, 2015.

timeline posted to USDA FSA website August 1, 2014

Letters are in the mail this month notifying farm operators of current base acres and yields, along with 2009-2012 planting histories. The letter asks these numbers be confirmed or updated as the first part of the sign up process. 

Online tools are under development at the University of Illinois to aid producers throughout the nation. Those tools may be ready by the official end of summer (September 22, 2014), but have not yet been released.

The following note was posted the USDA FSA website August 1, 2014;

WASHINGTON, Aug. 1, 2014 — U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Service Agency (FSA) Administrator Juan M. Garcia announced today that farmers should start receiving notices updating them on their current base acres, yields and 2009-2012 planting history. The written updates are an important part of preparing agricultural producers for the new safety net programs established by the 2014 Farm Bill.

“We’re sending these reports to make sure that farmers and ranchers have key information as they make critical decisions about programs that impact their livelihood,” said Garcia. “It’s important that producers take a few minutes to cross check the information they receive with their own farm records. If the information is correct, no further action is needed at this time. But if our letter is incomplete or incorrect, producers need to contact their local FSA county office as soon as possible.”

Verifying the accuracy of data on a farm’s acreage history is an important step for producers enrolling in the upcoming Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program and the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. Later this summer, farmers and ranchers will have an opportunity to update their crop yield information and reallocate base acres.

“We’re working hard to prepare and educate farmers on the new programs created by the 2014 Farm Bill,” added Garcia. “I encourage producers to bring their USDA notice to any scheduled appointments with the local FSA county office. This will help ensure they have the information they need with them to discuss the available program options.”

By mid-winter all producers on a farm will be required to make a one-time, unanimous and irrevocable election between price protection and county revenue protection or individual revenue protection for 2014-2018 crop years. Producers can expect to sign contracts for ARC or PLC for the 2014 and 2015 crop years in early 2015.

Covered commodities include barley, canola, large and small chickpeas, corn, crambe, flaxseed, grain sorghum, lentils, mustard seed, oats, peanuts, dry peas, rapeseed, long grain rice, medium grain rice (includes short grain rice and temperate japonica rice), safflower seed, sesame, soybeans, sunflower seed, and wheat. Upland cotton is no longer a covered commodity.

It is True – 20% of the Farms Produce Most of the Value

The 2012 Census of Agriculture hold many unique facts. Researchers at the University of Illinois have been digging through the numbers to find some plumbs. Todd Gleason reports it seems an old adage is borne out by the figures.

There were about 75 thousand farms in Illinois when the 2012 Census of Agriculture was taken by the United Stated Department of Agriculture. The census, by two different measures – acreage operated & value of production – suggests the majority of Illinois farms are small by either categorization. However, there are two interesting facts that flow with these categorizations. The smaller the farm the more likely it is to produce livestock of less total value, and the larger the farm the more likely it is to produce crops – mostly grains and oilseeds - of much greater value.

The Census of Agriculture defines a farm as any place from which $1,000 or more of agricultural products were produced and sold, or normally would have been sold, during the reference year. The Census classifies each farm's production specialization based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). A "Livestock" farm is

Storing the 2014 Corn Crop

URBANA, IL. – The majority of annually produced crops such as corn obviously have to be stored. According to a University of Illinois agricultural economist, for corn producers, the question at harvest time will be who will store the portion of the crop which has not yet been sold.



“The portion of the crop that has not been sold can be sold at harvest for someone else to store, or the producer can store the crop on the farm or in commercial facilities,” said Darrel Good. “For the portion of the crop stored by the producer, the second question is whether the stored crop should be priced for later delivery or held unpriced. That decision is influenced by the magnitude of the carry in the corn market, the cost of storage, and expectations about the change in corn prices after harvest.”

Good explained that for corn that is stored and priced for later delivery, the price for later delivery needs to

Will Crop Insurance Make Payments in 2014?

by Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois

In Illinois, crop insurance payments on corn likely will be lower in 2014 than in 2012 and 2013. Crop insurance payments in 2014 likely will not be large for soybeans. For both corn and soybeans, harvest prices will be lower than projected prices. However, above average yields likely will counter price decreases, leading to low crop insurance payments. Somewhat ironically, crop insurance payments likely will be lower in 2014 than in 2012 and 2013. At the same time, revenue and returns will be much lower in 2014 than in 2012 and 2013.

Product Choices of Farmers

In this article, focus is placed on revenue insurance products at high coverage levels, as most farmers purchase these products. The four revenue products available in

Fish Farm Challenge

The National 4-H Foundation and Monsanto have put together an educational series for kids at summer camp. Learn how the Fish Farm Challenge is helping boys and girls understand world hunger, world population, science, and engineering.

EPA Administrator McCarthy Speech to Agriculture

SPEECH EXCERPTS from U.S. EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy's July 10, 2014 speech on the Clean Water Act proposal that United States agricultural interest fear will broaden the 'navigable waters' definition leading to greater governmental regulation of farm ditches, etc.

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Today, I’m here to talk about our Clean Water Act proposal, which was called for by the Supreme Court and by numerous state organizations, as well as numerous agriculture stakeholder groups. The aim of this proposal is clear: to clear up legal confusion and protect waters that are vital to our health, using sound science so that EPA can get its job done. It is crucial that we keep farmers and the ag industry as a whole doing what they do best: producing the food, fuel, and fiber that provide for our American way of life. The kinds of water bodies we’ll protect provide drinking water to 1 in 3 Americans.
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We agree that people have a right to healthy land and clean water, so we have to make sure people understand that the practices we put in place are reasonable and consistently applied. That’s how we make sure everyone is playing by the same rules, and that everyone can fully work their farms and ranches with confidence and certainty. All of us rely on science and accurate facts. Farmers need to know what to plant and when to plant it, and EPA needs to know how to protect our precious water resources for everyone to enjoy. So it’s great to be here to talk facts and roll up our sleeves to work together to benefit producers and public health.
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Yesterday, we heard very clearly some of the concerns about our proposed rule. Let me clear up some of that: We heard fears that EPA is regulating groundwater. This is not true; groundwater regulations do and will fall under the purview of the states. EPA is not regulating all activities in floodplains, or every puddle, dry wash, and erosional feature. In fact, we’re doing just the opposite. If cattle cross a wet field – let them. That’s a normal farming practice, and all normal farming practices are still exempt. The bottom line is – if you didn’t need a permit before this proposed rule, you won’t need one when it’s finalized.
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So let’s talk about the interpretive rule and the 56 conservation practices that are good for production and good for water quality. That rule seems to have generated lots of confusion. So, why did we want to list out those 56 practices? Those 56 are an attempt to clear the path for slam dunk conservation practices. We did not narrow exemptions; those 56 are a subset to the existing exemptions for normal farming, ranching, and silviculture. No one should have to think twice about taking advantage of these conservation practices.

Some mistakenly think that this means additional federal standards with which to comply, but that’s wrong. Conservation practice standards are not federal regulatory standards. They just provide a roadmap for producers to make sure they’re squeezing all they can out of their practice.

New exemptions are “self-implementing,” which means no one needs to notify or get approval from EPA or the Corps. There’s no need to double check with anyone at any time. I’m sure farmers agree that the best discussion on jurisdictional determinations is one that never needs to happen. We added 56 exemptions because we want to boost conservation without boosting bureaucracy. Is the interpretive rule the best way to do that? Let’s figure that out together. I am about outcomes, not process. 

What if this is an 173.6 bpa year?

This week University of Illinois ag economist Scott Irwin and Darrel Good have posted an article to the farmdocdaily website. It poises the question of just how big a really big United States corn yield could become. The answer, based on past history, is 173.6 bushels to the acre. 

That's the average bpa deviation of the previous 6 largest deviations from trend yield since 1960. Those are shown in the included graph. The largest percentage deviation in the trend came in 1972 at 15.2 percent. 

While the crop conditions reported by USDA each Monday support the potential for such a record setting national average yield for corn, the two caution this year does not following the normal pattern of the other six. The normal pattern is for near or just above normal rainfall and lower than average temperatures in the three I states; Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. However, the number one corn producing state of those three (and the nation), Iowa, had nearly twice the June rain. 

"There is no historical precedent in the last five decades for an extremely high corn yield relative to trend (1972, 1979, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1994, 2004, and 2009) when Illinois, Indiana, or Iowa had such an extreme amount of precipitation during June" write the two ILLINOIS agricultural number crunchers. They add, "the same conclusion also holds when other major corn-producing states are included in the analysis". 

It doesn't mean such an exception won't occur, but rather that it has not happened before. History points to record yields with cooler, wetter weather runs through August. 

Risky Business Study with Cargill's Greg Page

A group of business people and political leaders have released a project called Risky Business. University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason has more on the study and how it might be used in the Midwest to assess and mitigate the financial risk associated with climate change with Cargill's Chairman of the Board Greg Page.

Click on the arrow below to listen to the interview. You may visit www.riskybusiness.org for more complete details of the study.

Check out the corn and soybean field conditions in this little video from the Gleason Farms in Logan County, Illinois. The corn looks, well, GREAT - and the soybeans are flowering! 

June 30, 2014

USDA released the annual Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports at 11am central time today.

ACREAGE

Corn Planted Acreage Down 4 Percent from 2013
Soybean Acreage Up 11 Percent
All Wheat Acreage Up Less Than 1 Percent
All Cotton Acreage Up 9 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2014 is estimated at 91.6 million
acres, down 4 percent from last year. This represents the lowest planted
acreage in the United States since 2010; however, this is the fifth largest
corn acreage in the United States since 1944.

Soybean planted area for 2014 is estimated at a record high 84.8 million
acres, up 11 percent from last year. Area for harvest, at 84.1 million acres,
is up 11 percent from 2013 and will be a record high by more than 7.4 million
acres, if realized. Record high planted acreage is estimated in Michigan,
Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South
Dakota, and Wisconsin.
—

GRAIN STOCKS

Corn Stocks Up 39 Percent from June 2013
Soybean Stocks Down 7 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 18 Percent

Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 3.85 billion bushels, up
39 percent from June 1, 2013. Of the total stocks, 1.86 billion bushels are
stored on farms, up 48 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at
1.99 billion bushels, are up 32 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2014
indicated disappearance is 3.15 billion bushels, compared with 2.63 billion
bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 405 million bushels,
down 7 percent from June 1, 2013. On-farm stocks totaled 109 million bushels,
down 36 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 296 million bushels, are
up 12 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the
March - May 2014 quarter totaled 589 million bushels, up 4 percent from the
same period a year earlier.

Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled
590 million bushels, down 18 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are
estimated at 97.0 million bushels, down 19 percent from last year. Off-farm
stocks, at 493 million bushels, are down 18 percent from a year ago. The
March - May 2014 indicated disappearance is 467 million bushels, down
10 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Here are some other items of interest from the USDA Executive Summary.

The Change in Acreage by Crop (2013 to 2014)

2014 Principal Crops Planted

Acres (000) & Change from Prospective Plantings by state

U.S. Principal Crop Acres

Our website is also a great place to get updates. The address is www.willag.org. Todd's @commodityweek Twitter feed will be posted directly into the site and it will give a quick, if incomplete, review of the figures. The detailed numbers will be posted into the USDA Reports page on our online home.

Finally, thank you very much to all those helping to make our end of the fiscal year fund drive a great success. WILL is a public radio station and your financial support is vital. If you haven't yet, or simply would like to help support our agricultural programs on the station, including this newsletter, please do make a contribution. When you fill out the online forms be sure to write "in support of agriculture" in the comments section.

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Chris Hurt says Same Pounds of Pork & Same Corn Fed

Friday USDA released the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. During an interview late Friday afternoon Purdue Extension Ag Economist Chris Hurt said the figures show, as it relates to the amount of corn consumed by the nation's hog herd, the lower number of animals coming to market now because of PEDv is offset by heavier weights. Essentially, Hurt says feeding fewer pigs to heavier weights consumes about the same amount of corn (he thinks) and produces about the same amount of pork.



You may read Chris Hurt's thoughts on the livestock market once a month in The Weekly Outlook posted to the FarmDocDaily website during the noon hour on Mondays.

USDA June 2014 Grain Stocks & Acreage Reports

Grain Stocks

	USDA June Estimate	Average	Ranges	June 2013	March 2014
Corn		3,723	3,046-4,050	2,766	7,006
Soybean		382	334-440	435	992
Wheat		597	561-633	718	1,056

Acreage

	USDA June Estimate	Average	Range	March 2014	2013
Corn		91.709	91.00-92.50	91.691	95.365
Soybean		82.213	81.30-84.00	81.493	76.533
All Wheat		55.777	54.80-56.50	55.815	56.156
Spring		11.937	11.30-12.20	12.009	11.596
Durum		1.795	1.69- 1.90	1.799	1.470

Wheat Head Scab in SRW Crop

The nation's wheat crop is suffering from too much rainfall. It is causing harvest delays in the hard red winter wheat growing regions of the southwestern United States, and the development of disease issues in the southern Illinois soft red winter wheat crop.

Agronomy Day August 14, 2014

Visit the Agronomy Day Home Page now!

Art on the Roadside

Photographers call the time before sunset the golden hour. The light bends and shimmers across the landscape from a very low angle. It is a beautiful time of day to take pictures. 

You might say the sun paints the planet with golden light.

These photos were taken during my evening walk Sunday June 15, 2014 near my childhood home outside Elkhart, Illinois. They were shot facing the southeast with the sun directly at my back.

Nature does the best job of painting the landscape, however an app called Waterlogue helped me create an interesting artistic view of the art on the roadside.

ILLINOIS' Darrel Good on June WASDE