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Showing posts from February, 2017

Estimated 2016 ARC-CO Payments

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by Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

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On February 23rd, the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released county yields for the 2016 crop year. With these yield estimates, fairly accurate estimates of 2016 Agricultural Risk Coverage at the county level (ARC-Co) can be obtained. We present maps showing estimated payments per base acre for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Also shown are maps giving 2016 county yields relative to benchmark yields. A table showing estimated payments per county in Illinois also is presented.



Procedures Payments for 2016 are still estimates and will vary from those presented here for the following reasons:

• Farm Service Agency (FSA) uses different yields than NASS when calculating ARC-CO payments. Where NASS data is available, the NASS yield generally will be higher than those used by FSA. As a result, estimated payments should be viewed as conservative.

• Market Year Average (MYA) prices are not known be…

Global Trade of Agricultural Commodities Expected to Grow

China purchases two-thirds of the soybeans traded on the planet.Over the next ten years, USDA expects global soybean trade to increase by 25% and that Chinese purchases will account for 85% of the increase. The numbers were presented at the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Washington D.C., (today, Thursday, Feb 23, 2017) by USDA Chief Economist Rob Johannson. He says the projections are based on the assumption the number of middle-class households in China will double to nearly 250 million by the year 2024, “Those households will start demanding more meat, protein, and processed foods in their diet. And looking to other potential markets that could provide significant new demands for food commodities, we note that the number of middle-class households in India is expected to triple by 2024.”Johannson says the United States has not had nearly as much success in opening new markets in India as it has in China. He thinks poultry, eggs, fruit, and milk have the greatest potential. The estima…

February Application of NH3 O.K.

The warm weather in the Midwest has farmers itching to go to the field to get some pre-season work done. University of Illinois Extension Agronomist Emerson Nafziger says it is ok to apply anhydrous ammonia to corn acres. Nafziger says as long as soil conditions are good, a late winter anhydrous ammonia application should work just like a fall application.

2017 Corn Prospects | an interview with Todd Hubbs

sources
FarmDocDaily Article
Congressional Budge Office (CBO) Projections
USDA Long-Term Projections, February 2017by Todd Hubbs, Grain Markets Specialist - University of Illinois The time of year to develop corn balance sheet projections for the upcoming crop year is upon us. As we approach the halfway point of the 2016–17 marketing year, decision making regarding planting and new crop marketing get determined. The expectations for corn in the 2017 crop year put forth in this analysis show lower production leading to decreased ending stocks in 2017–18. The magnitude of reduced ending stocks provides important implications for corn prices moving through 2017–18.Current market consensus projects farmers to plant fewer corn acres in 2017 than the 94 million acres planted in 2016. As discussed previously, numerous factors point toward greater soybean acreage and lower corn acreage in 2017. These include lower winter wheat seedings, a lower cost of production for soybeans, and the current pe…

Casting a Data Science Company | an interview with Robb Fraley

Monsanto used to be a chemical company that made herbicides. It then transitioned to a genetic-traits company that produced seeds. Now, as it is set to merge with Bayer, the Chief Technology Officer for Monsanto looks to be casting the St. Louis based agricultural giant into the data-science world of Apple and Samsung. Todd Gleason has this interview with Robb Fraley from the 2017 Illinois Soybean Summit in Peoria.

2017 Projected Incomes on Illinois Grain Farms

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Net incomes for Illinois grain farms are projected to be lower this year than last. If this University of Illinois estimate holds, writes agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey on the farmdocdaily website, the weakening financial position of farms in the state will worsen. The last half decade has really changed the financial picture for farmers says Schnitkey, “So we had high incomes from 2010 to 2012 and every year since 2012 we’ve been on a downward trend through 2015. This is when we hit a $500 per farm average net income on Illinois grain farms enrolled in FBFM. This is very low and the lowest through the entire period we’ve examined. Obviously this is not enough to maintain the financial position of farms.”

Schnitkey evaluated FBFM net income records going back to 1996. FBFM stands for Farm Business Farm Management and is a record keeping service for farmers. The service has not yet summarized net incomes for 2016. However it is projecting a substantial rebound.



It appears net i…

2017 Soybean Prospects

farmdocdaily articleFarmers around the nation are expected to plant more soybeans than usual this spring. There are many reasons this might be the case, but only one price outcome if things on the planet remain the same.

2017 Soybean Prospects | an interview with Todd Hubbs

There are three points University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs says farmers need to remember about soybeans this year; acreage, stocks, and price.

Buy Your Tickets Today

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CLICK TO REGISTER ONLINEor call 1-800-898-1065 between 8:30 AM and 5 PM




Doors Open
9:00am eastern / 8:00am central
Beef House Rolls & Coffee Available

Opening Remarks
9:25am eastern / 8:25am central
    Todd E. Gleason, University of Illinois Extension

Weather Outlook
9:30am eastern / 8:30am central
    Eric Snodgrass, Agrible - Champaign, Illinois

Special Guest for the Day
Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

Cash Grain Panel
10:15am eastern / 9:15am central
Matt Bennett, Bennett Consulting - Windsor, Illinois
    Aaron Curtis, MIDCO - Bloomington, Illinois
    Brian Stark, The Andersons - Champaign, Illinois
    Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities - Lafayette, Indiana

Break (30 min)

Soybean Panel
11:30am eastern / 10:30am central
    Ellen Dearden, AgReview - Morton, Illinois
    Bill Gentry, Risk Management Commodities - Lafayette, Indiana
    Pete Manhart, Bates Commodities - Normal, Illinois
    Bill Mayer, Strategic Farm Marketing - Champaign, Illinois

Lunch a…

Consider Using ARP for Soybeans

farmdoc daily source articleIt seems likely the price of soybeans at harvest this fall could be much lower than it is now. The options a farmer might consider because of this potential is choosing a different crop insurance plan. Federal crop insurance comes in two basic revenue protection forms, R-P and A-R-P. R-P stands for Revenue Protection and A-R-P stands for Area Risk Protection. The difference between the two says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey is simple enough to understand. Gary Schnitkey - RP is what most people buy, Revenue Protection. It is a farm level product and makes payments based on what happens to farm yields. ARP is a county level product. So, it makes payments on what happens to county wide yields, county revenue, but it is the county yield that is entered into the equation rather the farm yield (as is the case) for RP. It is the available coverage level under the ARP federal crop insurance option that put Schnitkey’s mind to work wh…

UofI Alum Propst Elected IPPA President

A University of Illinois Animal Sciences alum has been elected president of the Illinois Pork Producers Association.

New Fertility Products for the Hog Industry

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Farmers raising pigs around the planet are always looking for ways to improve the productivity of their breeding herds.

University of Illinois Extension Swine Specialist Rob Knox explains PCAI, post cervical artificial insemination.

Corn Consumption Update

A University of Illinois agricultural economist has been thinking about the supply and demand for corn in the United States and elsewhere.U.S. farmers harvested more than fifteen billion bushels of corn last fall. That’s a very, very big crop. It is expected there will be more than the usual amount leftover from it by the time the next crop comes in. Todd Hubbs has been thinking a lot about that and how the corn crop is used. He says exports have been strong. Factually 69% of what USDA thinks will be shipped out, has either been shipped or booked, already. And, we’re not even half-way into the marketing year. Todd Hubbs - So, meeting that 2.25 billion bushels USDA projected for exports looks feasible right now, but we do have the South American crop coming on to compete. So far exports look strong. I am a little concerned about some of the policy issues surrounding our export market, but at this point it is a wait-and-see scenario in my mind.Exports are the smallest primary component …

Assessing Argentina Soybean Yield Risks

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by Todd Hubbs, Scott Irwin, and Darrel Good
source article

We recently began a series of articles to evaluate the history of corn and soybean yields and deviations from trend yield in Brazil and Argentina. The objective of the yield analysis is to provide a basis for forming expectations about the likely yields of the 2017 crops. The first six articles focused on the alternative sources of historical yield estimates, the selection of the appropriate series to use in the analysis for both corn and soybeans, the selection of the best-fitting trend model for each commodity and country, trend yield deviations in each country for corn, and trend yield deviations in Brazil for soybeans (farmdoc daily, November 2, 2016; November 9, 2016; November 16, 2016; December 14, 2016; December 15, 2016; and January 12, 2016). Today’s article examines soybean yield trend estimates and trend deviations for the Argentinian soybean crop. Since Argentina is the world’s third largest producer of soybeans an…

Iowa Court Decision on Field Tiles | an interview with Jonathan Coppess

The Iowa Supreme Court has ruled drainage districts in the state cannot be sued for the cleanup of nitrates in drinking water. Justice Thomas Waterman authored the majority opinion, writing that policy deciding who pays for nitrate removal is the jurisdiction of Iowa lawmakers. This was a win for the drainage districts says University of Illinois Agricultural Policy Specialist Jonathan Coppess. However, he says the Clean Water Act implications of the suit, about whether or not field tiles are point sources that can be regulated, remains to be addressed.“So the big question under the Clean Water Act, as I understand it, is the Des Moines Water Works is claiming that the agricultural stormwater exemption under the Clean Water Act does not apply to drainage districts. In this case, because once it comes through the pipes it becomes a point source.” –Jonathan Coppess, Agricultural Policy Specialist - University of Illinois Again, the decision in the Iowa courts is that only lawmakers in t…